Putin, arse, elbow

There isn't much info coming out of late. Just odd bits I've picked up. AlJ still have a reporter near fighting.

A Ukrainian poly mentioned 3 strikes in the east. AlJ mentioned one of them - military target. Russia claims to have hit an arms shipment. Also more recently more fuel and various dumps.

2,400 out of the steel works. Initially just Russian reports but UN and Red Cross involved also checking where they are being held. Some noises about the Azov brigade but what might be called the Donbas brigade seem to be making most noise. Maybe a few in Moscow as well. War crimes. There may be some prisoner exchange talks going on - seriously wounded perhaps.

Several reports that fighting in the east is fiercer than usual. The AlJ man gave a better explanation of what is going on. Fighting finishes up at population centres of various sizes. If Russia happens to win they generally gain more land as the centres are widely spread. Currently he is close to Soldar. Higher ground and it looks like Russia would like it. At one point it sounded like he would need to move out. Actually I suspect he has moved further away from the front line.

UK reckons Russia will have lost ~15,000 soldiers. Thoughts that a lot of these could have been earlier on. No info at all about Ukraine losses.

Conjecture. There was a hit in Odessa. A BBC reporter mentioned a very strong smell of burning plastic - if there were a number of certain western weapons in the building there would be if the strike was successful. One report said it was a mall another a warehouse.

Negotiations. Ukraine side. Only a diplomatic one that results in Russia moving out completely is acceptable.
 
Heavier kit is starting to reach the front lines but the war is mostly an artillery duel at the moment. Any forward movement beyond artillery support gets shredded by the enemies artillery.

Air power isn't playing a significant factor as both sides have enough SAMs to deny the others air superiority. So they mostly mince around doing very little.

Apparently Russia is still trying to cross the Donbas(?) but is getting torn up doing it. They don't have much choice, they need to cross the rivers if they want to finish occupying the region and there's only so many bridging points available.

We're into the attrition stage now. Do the Russian soldiers start quitting rather than go to Ukraine or does the west stop supplying weapons and ammunition in meaningful quantities.

Negotiations are just PR at the moment, neither party is willing to accept the others demands and are just marking time until the other folds. Apart from prisoner exchanges.
 
Channel 4 reported that a Donbas town had been surrounded and shell exchanges going on all along the entire fighting line. Also a bit more info on Kharkiv Ukraine soldier killed by shelling a few miles out of it. Russia appears to have withdrawn somewhat rather than pulled out. Not sure what to make of the reports. Russia reckon they will have one area of Donbas wrapped up soon. Luhansk.

Zelenskyy still wants more. Piecemeal wars as far as gains go could go on for a long time. The long time seems to be a typical view.
 
Concerns about getting wheat out of the Ukraine

The wheat fields need to be hsrvested but they don’t have silo space for storage ?? Due to Russians blockading the Black Sea

Grain ships need to dock at Odessa ?

Talk on the news about the willing sending in war ships into the Black Sea to open up a shipping corridor to get grain ships in ???

Depends on the Turks allowing passage in
And also who is prepared to do it
Uk / USA ???
 
There is also talk about persuading Russia to export fertiliser. Also Russia using food as a weapon that will effect millions. Grain - more likely to try and get Russia to allow Ukraine to export it. The head man from the UN outlined this.

Send in warships and blow the Russian ships up ??? Why not just send NATO forces into Ukraine and finish the Russians off. Surely it would be **** easy to do that so why not. I'd hope people realise why not. Another is all warships can blow other one up.
 
If said warships enter the Black Sea
To escort grain ships

And they are attacked by the Russians

Well than it will be all out war

Article 5 and all that caper

Oh well hey ho

So be it
 
If you search on "warships go into black sea" you find a lot. So far Putin said no so nobody tried.
That could change.
 
The question that will need to be addressed is what is the aim of the
Ukraine and it’s allies (?)

1). To win the war , meaning reclaim all territory it held prior to this Russian invasion

2) to end the war ? Which will require negotiation with the Russians

The usual suspects are coming to the fore for the war to end via negotiation meaning that the Ukraine will lose territory and the Russians will gain ?

Usual suspects pushing for appeasement of Russia are

French
Germans
Italians
Romanians
And Putins mate Orban / Hungary

The loose cannons

Macron ( scoundrel) sees an opuurtunity to play the big I am negotiater

No surprise there
 
The French just want to sell arms, the Germans want to keep taking Russian gas without feeling guilty (plus they crave industrial stability at all costs, but don't mention the war!), the Italians - I dunno, the Romanians are concerned about becoming a Russian vassal state once more and Orban possibly fancies himself as another Lukashenko because the EU regard him as just another jumped-up ex-communist fascist a=hole (which he is) who wants to retain power at all costs, regardless of who gets hurt (so long as it isn't him)

Sorry, I have a bit of a jaundiced view of it all - especially the two-faced behaviour of the Germans who were warned when they first took Russian gas way back in the 1980s that this would make them subservient to Russia at some time in the future - which they not only are, now, but they have funded the mad Russian's war as virtually none of the money from gas has gone into providing little luxuries like roads, railways, hospitals. education, etc...
 
JobAndKnock said:
The French just want to sell arms, the Germans want to keep taking Russian gas without feeling guilty (plus they crave industrial stability at all costs, but don't mention the war!), the Italians - I dunno, the Romanians are concerned about becoming a Russian vassal state once more and Orban possibly fancies himself as another Lukashenko because the EU regard him as just another jumped-up ex-communist fascist a=hole (which he is) who wants to retain power at all costs, regardless of who gets hurt (so long as it isn't him)

Sorry, I have a bit of a jaundiced view of it all - especially the two-faced behaviour of the Germans who were warned when they first took Russian gas way back in the 1980s that this would make them subservient to Russia at some time in the future - which they not only are, now, but they have funded the mad Russian's war as virtually none of the money from gas has gone into providing little luxuries like roads, railways, hospitals. education, etc...
Click to expand...
A fair point, and i'd add the Chinese who're buying huge quantities of cheap oil from Russia - something like 700% up on last year.
 
Justin Passing said:
If you search on "warships go into black sea" you find a lot. So far Putin said no so nobody tried.
That could change.
Click to expand...
The only sensible way to get warships into the Black Sea to protect grain shipments is under the flag of the UN. Any independent moves by the UK or US would just give Putin the excuse to argue that NATO was getting involved.
 
I can't see anyone volunteering their warships as targets, even with the added opportunity to potentially start WW3.
 
in any event the Ukranians would need to remove a shed load of there mines from around the port before any ship could dock
 
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