Ukraine counter offensive

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However, mass producing modern tanks would be much more difficult as they're far more complex to build
The shells not so much. Tanks - https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/26/us-sends-ukraine-advanced-abrams-tanks-00079648
I don't buy it that Poland wouldn't be helpful, or that US couldn't apply sticks and carrots. They only need to change the DU armour? Stormin Norman would get them there in less than a year.
USA has these - many not the latest: 750 M1A1 SA, 1,605 M1A2 SEPv2, 154 M1A2 SEPv3. (some 3,700 M1A1, M1A2 SEPv2/v3 in storage) All USMC M1A1s retired in 2021 and to be divested by 2025.
There may problems with the Abrams though, ot least the jet(?) fuel supply, at three gallons per mile.

France and Australia are cooperating (post submarine embarrassment) to supply "several thousand" shells. 8000? That would be one day's Ukraine use, or a quarter of Russia's.
so Ukraine would recieve older versions, already sold
I thought it would be the high tech parts which would be sensitive -seems not, it's just the armour. They have some old ones...

legitimate security concerns.
Yes, in as much that Russia has always had buffer states. Various R's have said that. I believe they think they are threatened. They fought for Crimea a few times before (sieges at Sevastopol) and equally see part of Ukraine as theirs - and have "referenda" to prove it. Nato doesn't have a pure-white defence-only history.

America was prepared to start a nuclear war to prevent the Russians coming too close to their borders.
That isn't known. If you're thinking of Cuba it was a while ago, boats, quite different.

Bombing the civil population does not win wars
Yes you said that 7 times already. This isn't the same sort of war. Lots of IFs but - if Ukraine runs out of shells, which could happen soon if Russia hits their shell factories, infrastructure, roads... If they kill Zelenskyy... If they use vacuum bombs to kill civilians in bulk.;
Pressure from neighbours you wouldn't usually see, could be insisting they come to a cease fire.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if R used a nuke, blaming the West, if they feel pinched.

The "hopeless Russia" rhetoric continues, while they keep inching foward.
Is the R government showing signs of schizmzs? No that's the Ukr one.

Another country is added to the list of those with anti-war grumblers - Austria.
 
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A dedicated website for the Next Generation Abrams is now online. This same website teases a slate of other "next generation" designs from General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS), including a new base configuration for the company's Stryker 8x8 wheeled armored vehicle and another planned variant in that family equipped with the Leonidas high-power microwave directed energy weapon, the latter of which you can read more about here. Various unmanned ground vehicle offerings from GLDS, including a variant of the TRX tracked design armed with dozens of loitering munitions, which is now called Razorback, and the company entry into the U.S. Army's Small Multipurpose Equipment Transport (SMET) program, are featured on the site, as well.

@theDrive.com

The website gives summaries of the 3rd generation Abrams but obviously, a good deal is going to be top secret - it's fair to say the Russians have nothing like it; in fact, their entire military still appears to be using 20th century technology. If NATO had to commit to an offensive i wouldn't give the Red Army longer than a month.

A synopsis of the military situation on day 344 can be seen here@AlJazz
 
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This isn't the same sort of war.

Trenches. Artillery barrages. Human waves of cannon fodder. Appeals to appeasement and sacrifice of a far-away country of which we know little.

The more it changes the more it stays the same.
 
They've still got nukes and a governing system that would be difficult to stop from using them...

So not so 'weak' at all !
Nukes are useless in attack.

They are a trump card to prevent anyone trying to cripple you in response but they're too big, both politically and physically to be much use in an offensive conventional war.

Russia used to pride itself in being the world's second army. The plucky small guy to stand up to the US. That has turned out to be a joke, their kit is rubbish, their systems hopelessly corrupt and their leadership inept.
 
Russia used to pride itself in being the world's second army. The plucky small guy to stand up to the US. That has turned out to be a joke, their kit is rubbish, their systems hopelessly corrupt and their leadership inept.

The average income in Russia, is much less than even that in Pakistan, mostly due to massive corruption. Putin has billions stashed away, his personal profits from his regime, he cannot afford to be pushed out of power, to risk being financially investigated.
 
Are we going to close this thread when the next Russian offensive begins later this month?

Unless the weather does something unusual the expectation is that Russia will be launching a major offensive in the Luhansk oblast. They've been building up conventional forces and supplies there over winter.
 
It's a different sort of war. Flesh rips as it always did, but have we had one before where one side's players don't have meat in the mincer?
How will Ukraine feel, and how well can they fight, if even the supporting rounds of applause flag, less keen to drown the urges to sue for peace?
Biden is taking over from Zelensky as Putin's agonist, and Biden is keen to reveal to everyone, what he won't send.
The commies may be stupefyingly inept, but they do have numbers, for now. Stalin's new bronze bust is today being unveiled in Volvograd, as Ukraine's numbers, in ammunition, decline. Ol Joe's soundbites resonate.
 
have we had one before where one side's players don't have meat in the mincer?
In the early and mid part of WW2, USA was not fighting, but was supplying useful materiel. Not unlike today.

Then, as now, a sizeable number of influential Americans, and Brits, supported either inaction, or the "other side." Not unlike today.

Perhaps it is inconvenient that Ukraine in 2022 was not defeated a quickly as Poland in 1939.

But only in the short run.

Many Trumpists are pro-Putin.
 
If they kill Zelenskyy... If they use vacuum bombs to kill civilians in bulk.;
Pressure from neighbours you wouldn't usually see, could be insisting they come to a cease fire.
There was a comment a few weeks ago that a missile hit was much closer to Kiev's gov centre than ever before but still well away. There is a war idea that says don't kill the head as that leaves no one to talk with Chop off arms and legs and they can still talk, My way of putting it. The other is that the administration centre is still needed when a war is won. Cropped up when considering what cities in the UK would be nuked if things came to that. Japan is an example of this approach. Putin and co though. I don't think they have ever had the real intent to annex all of Ukraine. Killing civilians in mass might be a from of escalation. Many at least in part are living normal lives. That reminds me of comments about shock and awe. Power hits are making life difficult for a number of Ukrainians. Unlike initial shock and awe that and other factors are having a noticeable effect on their normal lives.

Davos talk about Ukraine was mentioned but not much in terms of reports. AlJ did one reports but I missed the start so no idea who the guy was. What he wants is a cease fire and he doesn't care 2 hoots about if that leaves something legal or not. He mentioned hawks committing mutual commercial suicide and debt levels some of which may get written off. That may relate to other countries out of the west etc and Ukraine as the war is causing financial grief in a number of countries.
 
In the early and mid part of WW2, USA was not fighting, but was supplying useful materiel. Not unlike today.

Then, as now, a sizeable number of influential Americans, and Brits, supported either inaction, or the "other side." Not unlike today.

Perhaps it is inconvenient that Ukraine in 2022 was not defeated a quickly as Poland in 1939.

But only in the short run.

Many Trumpists are pro-Putin.
Point taken, though it wasn't the same.

Crimea was the Poland which (should have) done gone woked everybody up.

In WW2 the Non-Interventionist US was technically NEUTRAL until Pearl Harbour at the very end of '41. FDR had complex battles and shenanigans to get things to us.
They managed to get some ww1 planes near enough to the Canadian border that they could be dragged across, then I think some old WW1 ships intended to sit in the channel and fight off invaders. I don't know if they ever got used. US was later open to anyone to buy from, which we had to pay cash for, and carry away ourselves. Lend-Lease was later.
Particularly when it started, anything miitary from US came in limited numbers, and low-quality stuff, a far cry comparatively, from the materiel being provided now. (Not to ignore the crucial FOOD).
(The Russians benefitted probably more than we did in terms of military results. A pity memories can be short.)

19 EU countries plus US, Canada, Australia and others have handed over arms since very early. Thousands of anti-tank and anti aircraft missiles were arriving before war started. The Russians already had reason to fear Stingers from Afghan. There will be analyses later. I suspect the ability to supress the Russian air force - much used in say Syria - will come up as a major influencer, and that appears to have been hugely aided by western arms.

So does it all now rely on wavering far-off politicians, to keep Ukraine in the war? I think so.
So far, I repeat, Ukraine is slowly losing. (Despite Russia's pretty successful attempts to balls themselves up)
But now, unlike Britain in WW2, Ukraine isn't producing much for itself. And they aren't hitting the opposition production a jot.
And in WW2, the US didn't waver, once committed.



I agree, about killing Zelenskyy. So what was the point of that ill-considered advance on Kyiv, early on? Did they think thay could roll up to the town square and put their own chap in? They tried that before, it failed.
If they did do it, say by a very big bomb on Kyiv, would the remaining chiefs rise or fall?
 
Nukes are useless in attack.

They are a trump card to prevent anyone trying to cripple you in response but they're too big, both politically and physically to be much use in an offensive conventional war.

Russia used to pride itself in being the world's second army. The plucky small guy to stand up to the US. That has turned out to be a joke, their kit is rubbish, their systems hopelessly corrupt and their leadership inept.
The UK used to 'big itself up' with it's military boasts...

Do you think an Iraq style (illegal) campaign could be undertaken now?
Or even another Falklands folly?

And we'd have been defeated by Ukraine, let alone russia in a one to one confrontation wherever that may take place!

Small tactical nukes can be used in a battle situation, and putin has plenty of those.
The UK has none, so it's only 'trump cards' are the medium power nukes which are indeed not of any use in a battlefield situation.

And the fact that the Ukranians have turned out to be so resilient means that the russian rat when cornered may well unleash a 'demonstration' attack of increased magnitude...

What do you think will be the response?
 
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