....that he should get a boiler that best matches his homes heating and hot water needs
That is the part everyone agrees on.
The question is what is "best" if a house has possibly oversized rads (whether that is the case with op or not is fairly irrelevant).
House has 38 kW output rads, but 30 kW heat loss.
Do you:
A, stick a 30 kW boiler in to match the heatloss, and ignore the fact that the boiler will not be able to heat the rads fully?
Or:
B, stick a 37 kW boiler in that can heat the rads fully, and ignore the fact that the house only has a 30 kW heatloss?
This of course assumes that it is:
A, a conventional boiler,
B, the smaller boiler will have a lower minimum rate than the bigger model,
C, that the house will actually need less than the minimum rate of the boiler,
D, it will never get colder than the design temperature out side,
E, the occupant is not, and never will be, Jamaican and likes the house warmer than the standard design temperature,
F, at not time in the future will there be an extension built, a loft converted, or any other need for more output,
G, that it is actually a demonstrable disadvantage to have the boiler cycling during some periods, rather than a theoretical issue,
H, the owner believes that the demonstrable comfort of over capacity does not outweigh the theoretical downside of cycling.
That's a lot of assumptions.