KFK files

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recently released

A doc from CIA chief of counter intelligence James Angleton said

" The British security service (MI5) reported that at 18.05 GMT on the 22nd November an anonomous phone call was made in Cambridge , England to the senior reporter of the Cambridge News . The caller said that they should call the US embassy in London for some big news .

25 mins later JFK was shot dead in Dallas .
 
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Confirmation bias.

Every day of the year I phone TV news to say I forecast a plane disaster and a stock market crash.

Occasionally I'm right.
 
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Cambridge News get a call every 22nd November. The Ipswich Gazette get one every 21st November. The Norwich Advertiser get one every 23rd.

There are enough nutters, and enough newspapers and radio stations for somebody to get a crank call on any day you care to name.

Do they ever publish the crank calls that didn't come true?

Do you think there is ever a day when somebody doesn't forecast the next San Andreas earthquake? One day somebody will be lucky.
 
2891 files were released, Some were held back

thousands of typed notes , detailing surveillance , suspect interviews . Talk about Russian spies , Cuban spies , left wing student activists
Cuban exiles , Mobster involvement , even speculation that Lyndon Johnson might have been behind the deed ?
 
Confirmation bias.

Every day of the year I phone TV news to say I forecast a plane disaster and a stock market crash.

Occasionally I'm right.

Where is the confirmation bias?

The post is reporting the facts, there is no interpretation.
 
The post is reporting the facts, there is no interpretation.

A selected fact can give a misleading impression.

For example, if you walk into a large group, holding a newspaper, and say "did anyone have a premonition that there would be a plane crash today?" somebody will say yes. If in fact there has been a plane crash today, they will take this as evidence that premonitions can be true. Usually there hasn't been.
 
Then we will have to wait until your office discovers how many calls saying "call the US embassy in London for some big news" are usually received in a day to determine whether it was significant.
 
nobody bothers to record them.

But next time a plane crashes, look for people saying "oh, I dreamed about a plane crash the night before."

It's a very well-known phenomenon.
 
Yes, I know, but 'ring the American Embassy' can't be that common.

Although, I suppose there are lots of people dreaming of Trump (and Pence) being assassinated.
 
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