Any readers of ‘War and Peace’ out there?
Although only 'scratching the surface' (of a very complex issue), this is going to end up very long [split into two posts, because of a 10,000 character limit] and. probably for most of you, 'boring' - so please only read it if you are really interested.
It is also probably a bit muddled and repetitive, for which I apologise, but I have written it in some haste. I also apologise for posting it in this forum (f it 'survives' here), for which it is about as 'off-topic' as one can imagine but, as I said in the other thread, this is one place where I feel that I am 'amongst friends'!
If I get a chance (hopefully quite soon), I will post some graphs to illustrate some of the points I make below, and also to perhaps stimulate some thought/discussion about related issues.
In another thread ...
Managing the situation in the sort of manner that is proposed comes down to some massive gambles. Medicine, Science and Mathematics can give some guidance as to what might happen in various scenarios, but it is obviously government which than has the unenviable task of deciding which gambles are 'gambles worth taking', and which would probably be 'a gamble too far', by attempting to balance the countless considerations.
The decisions are mainly 'gambles' because 'the science' can only talk with certainty about what has already happened - all attempts to predict/forecast the future inevitably come with 'uncertainty'.
As discussed below, we are in a situation of very high and rapidly increasing virus prevalence and, although we 'expect'/hope (and maybe pray!) that increasing impact of the ongoing vaccination campaign will 'reverse' that trend fairly soon/quickly, we really have little idea of when, how quickly and to what extent that would happen.
Virtually any other country (which didn't have our level of vaccination and/or our degree of extreme 'faith' in it as a means to 'salvation') in this situation would probably be markedly tightening, not nearly abolishing, their control measures). We know little with any certainty about what would happen even without any 'relaxations' - so we know even less about what might happen if we add the consequences of 'Freedom Day' onto that already uncertain future.
One thing (which really illustrates one of our main concerns) that my colleagues and myself somewhat struggle to understand is why both the government and their advisors seem to be suggesting that, following the planned relaxations in just over a week, the number of new cases per day "might rise to as high as 100,000 per day later in the summer", since that seems to potentially be a serious understatement of what could/might happen ...
... there were about 32,500 new cases in the UK on Thursday 8th ('today', as I start writing this). The figure has been rising rapidly (exponentially), and the most recent SAGE estimate of rate of rise (in England) is 2%-5% per day, corresponding to doubling about every 14 to 35 days - hence a 'best estimate' (middle of quoted range of uncertainty) of about 3.5% increase per day (which corresponds to doubling in about 20 days).
If that pattern of exponential rise continues at the 'best estimate' rate between now and then, by 19th July there would be around 47,000 new cases per day. Even if there were no relaxations on that day, but the rise continued at that rate, by the end of the month (12 days after 'Freedom Day') there would be around 72,000 new cases per day, and about 100,000 per day by about 10th August.
If the rate of rise continued at the current 'upper bound' of the estimate (5% per day), there would be about 56,000 cases per day by 19th July and, even if no 'relaxations' happened on that day, about 100,000 by the end of July and about 160,000 per day by about August 10th.
As discussed below, although currently pretty low (in comparison with the first and second 'waves') hospital admissions and ICU bed occupancy are also rising at a rapid rate. Hospital admissions (and similarly for ICU occupancy) is currently rising at around 6% per day (doubling in roughly 12 days).
The 'gamble' obviously assumes that things will not be anything like as bad as those figures and that, rather, the increasing impact of continuing deployment of vaccination (really the only credible thing, other than increased restrictions, that can help the situation) will [one is gambling 'very soon'] slow, and eventually reverse, the current rise in cases.
However, with the best will in the world, it is very improbable that the effects of increased vaccination are going to have a marked effect within the next week or three, particularly given that it will be a couple of months before a lot of the 18-30s are fully vaccinated, and that we haven't yet even started (or decided if/when we will start) vaccinating the under-18s (those being the groups seemingly most responsible for transmission at the moment).
Hence, if our view of the 'probable worst case' (upper bound of current rise-rate estimate) is that we might be up to around 100,000 per day by the end of July (and about 160,000 per day by 10th August) without any relaxations occurring on 19th July, it seems more than a lttle optimistic to be talking about 'only' 100,000 per day "later in the summer" if we do abandon virtually all measures on 19th, as if that were the "worst possible scenario".
In considering these gambles, the UK is clearly putting a vast amount (virtually all) of their faith/hope (which one hopes does not prove to be 'over-optimism' or 'complacency') in the hoped-for future effects of the impressively very high level of vaccination we have already achieved.
Presumably because of that 'faith in vaccination' (and high level of vaccination), the UK has gone out totally on a limb. No other country of which I am aware has ever had a number of cases, and/or the rate of rise of cases, even remotely as high as we are currently experiencing without responding by introducing robust additional measures in an attempt to control the situation - yet, given our 'faith', we are apparently about to remove virtually all of our 'measures'/restrictions in the face of such numbers.
In fact, it looks as if we are getting very close to being the country with the highest virus prevalence (daily numbers of new cases) in the entire world. Our figures are already dramatically higher than those anywhere in Europe, North America and Australasia, and appreciably higher than in most other countries (in most of which cases are fairly stable, or falling).
The below tabulation is of the world's 'top ten' countries in terms of the 7-day average of new cases per day as of 8th July. The UK is currently fourth, but the top two (India and Brazil) are falling quite rapidly (whilst the UK increases quite rapidly), so is is probable that, even without the planned July 19th changes, we will overtake them within a week or three. Only Indonesia and Cambodia are similarly 'high and increasing' to us, and hence in 'a race to the top' with us - so its far from impossible that we will soon hold the prevailing 'world record'. In a subsequent post, I will show graphically what is going on in the 'top five' countries, and how we come with some other European countries.
As an aside, one can't help but wonder what this will mean in terms of international travel, and the airline/tourism industries. It's all very well to be told today that fully vaccinated people returning to the UK from 'amber list' countries will soon not have to self-isolate, but as we approach that 'world record' situation, one has to wonder whether many countries will actually want/accept travellers from the UK (even if 'fully vaccinated'), at least without a period of strict isolation on arrival.
[continued in next post -10,000 character/post limit ] ....
Although only 'scratching the surface' (of a very complex issue), this is going to end up very long [split into two posts, because of a 10,000 character limit] and. probably for most of you, 'boring' - so please only read it if you are really interested.
It is also probably a bit muddled and repetitive, for which I apologise, but I have written it in some haste. I also apologise for posting it in this forum (f it 'survives' here), for which it is about as 'off-topic' as one can imagine but, as I said in the other thread, this is one place where I feel that I am 'amongst friends'!
If I get a chance (hopefully quite soon), I will post some graphs to illustrate some of the points I make below, and also to perhaps stimulate some thought/discussion about related issues.
In another thread ...
It's not 'more reading' I need - I think I've done enough reading, and playing with data, in relation to this issue to last me a lifetime I have been (and am) working closely with some groups of academics in attempts to model/forecast the future of the Covid in the UK in various scenarios. It is those activities which cause me, and many of my my colleagues, to have significant concerns.I suggest you need to read a bit wider.
Managing the situation in the sort of manner that is proposed comes down to some massive gambles. Medicine, Science and Mathematics can give some guidance as to what might happen in various scenarios, but it is obviously government which than has the unenviable task of deciding which gambles are 'gambles worth taking', and which would probably be 'a gamble too far', by attempting to balance the countless considerations.
The decisions are mainly 'gambles' because 'the science' can only talk with certainty about what has already happened - all attempts to predict/forecast the future inevitably come with 'uncertainty'.
That's one of the 'massive gambles'. That whole approach is based on the assumption/hope that the current 'wave' (which will inevitably become worse if the upcoming 'freedom' happens as currently envisaged) will be substantially 'over' by the time the 'flu season comes. If that doesn't happen as 'hoped', and the prevalence of infection remains higher at the start of the flu season than it would have been without July 19th 'Freedom', then the consequences (to the NHS etc.) of the 'flu will simply add onto persisting elevated Covid-related calls on the resources.There has been scientific advice that delaying things would actually cause more health problems because it would push the resulting wave back into the autumn and winter when it will collide with the seasonal flu season - which is seasonal simply because this sort of thing thrives best in certain conditions. By doing it now, while conditions are not good for the virus, it will flatten the peak and more of the peak will be over before we get into flu season.
As discussed below, we are in a situation of very high and rapidly increasing virus prevalence and, although we 'expect'/hope (and maybe pray!) that increasing impact of the ongoing vaccination campaign will 'reverse' that trend fairly soon/quickly, we really have little idea of when, how quickly and to what extent that would happen.
Virtually any other country (which didn't have our level of vaccination and/or our degree of extreme 'faith' in it as a means to 'salvation') in this situation would probably be markedly tightening, not nearly abolishing, their control measures). We know little with any certainty about what would happen even without any 'relaxations' - so we know even less about what might happen if we add the consequences of 'Freedom Day' onto that already uncertain future.
One thing (which really illustrates one of our main concerns) that my colleagues and myself somewhat struggle to understand is why both the government and their advisors seem to be suggesting that, following the planned relaxations in just over a week, the number of new cases per day "might rise to as high as 100,000 per day later in the summer", since that seems to potentially be a serious understatement of what could/might happen ...
... there were about 32,500 new cases in the UK on Thursday 8th ('today', as I start writing this). The figure has been rising rapidly (exponentially), and the most recent SAGE estimate of rate of rise (in England) is 2%-5% per day, corresponding to doubling about every 14 to 35 days - hence a 'best estimate' (middle of quoted range of uncertainty) of about 3.5% increase per day (which corresponds to doubling in about 20 days).
If that pattern of exponential rise continues at the 'best estimate' rate between now and then, by 19th July there would be around 47,000 new cases per day. Even if there were no relaxations on that day, but the rise continued at that rate, by the end of the month (12 days after 'Freedom Day') there would be around 72,000 new cases per day, and about 100,000 per day by about 10th August.
If the rate of rise continued at the current 'upper bound' of the estimate (5% per day), there would be about 56,000 cases per day by 19th July and, even if no 'relaxations' happened on that day, about 100,000 by the end of July and about 160,000 per day by about August 10th.
As discussed below, although currently pretty low (in comparison with the first and second 'waves') hospital admissions and ICU bed occupancy are also rising at a rapid rate. Hospital admissions (and similarly for ICU occupancy) is currently rising at around 6% per day (doubling in roughly 12 days).
The 'gamble' obviously assumes that things will not be anything like as bad as those figures and that, rather, the increasing impact of continuing deployment of vaccination (really the only credible thing, other than increased restrictions, that can help the situation) will [one is gambling 'very soon'] slow, and eventually reverse, the current rise in cases.
However, with the best will in the world, it is very improbable that the effects of increased vaccination are going to have a marked effect within the next week or three, particularly given that it will be a couple of months before a lot of the 18-30s are fully vaccinated, and that we haven't yet even started (or decided if/when we will start) vaccinating the under-18s (those being the groups seemingly most responsible for transmission at the moment).
Hence, if our view of the 'probable worst case' (upper bound of current rise-rate estimate) is that we might be up to around 100,000 per day by the end of July (and about 160,000 per day by 10th August) without any relaxations occurring on 19th July, it seems more than a lttle optimistic to be talking about 'only' 100,000 per day "later in the summer" if we do abandon virtually all measures on 19th, as if that were the "worst possible scenario".
In considering these gambles, the UK is clearly putting a vast amount (virtually all) of their faith/hope (which one hopes does not prove to be 'over-optimism' or 'complacency') in the hoped-for future effects of the impressively very high level of vaccination we have already achieved.
Presumably because of that 'faith in vaccination' (and high level of vaccination), the UK has gone out totally on a limb. No other country of which I am aware has ever had a number of cases, and/or the rate of rise of cases, even remotely as high as we are currently experiencing without responding by introducing robust additional measures in an attempt to control the situation - yet, given our 'faith', we are apparently about to remove virtually all of our 'measures'/restrictions in the face of such numbers.
In fact, it looks as if we are getting very close to being the country with the highest virus prevalence (daily numbers of new cases) in the entire world. Our figures are already dramatically higher than those anywhere in Europe, North America and Australasia, and appreciably higher than in most other countries (in most of which cases are fairly stable, or falling).
The below tabulation is of the world's 'top ten' countries in terms of the 7-day average of new cases per day as of 8th July. The UK is currently fourth, but the top two (India and Brazil) are falling quite rapidly (whilst the UK increases quite rapidly), so is is probable that, even without the planned July 19th changes, we will overtake them within a week or three. Only Indonesia and Cambodia are similarly 'high and increasing' to us, and hence in 'a race to the top' with us - so its far from impossible that we will soon hold the prevailing 'world record'. In a subsequent post, I will show graphically what is going on in the 'top five' countries, and how we come with some other European countries.
As an aside, one can't help but wonder what this will mean in terms of international travel, and the airline/tourism industries. It's all very well to be told today that fully vaccinated people returning to the UK from 'amber list' countries will soon not have to self-isolate, but as we approach that 'world record' situation, one has to wonder whether many countries will actually want/accept travellers from the UK (even if 'fully vaccinated'), at least without a period of strict isolation on arrival.
[continued in next post -10,000 character/post limit ] ....