Off-peak tariff, does it really save money?

[Atgni]

Confess I have not read all of the thread but I changed to an economy7 tariff many years ago when it was all the rage and it worked out more expensive because the standing charge or it might of been the normal rate was higher than a single all day rate.
I did not use a tumble dryer or have storage heaters so as far as am concerned I was conned into economy 7 and it looks like a con of sorts is still happening.

 

[nero44]

FYI, GaryDoesSolar just uploaded a new video discussing the very recent drop in export rates on octopus flux and it looks like it could stay or even get worse.

I never plan to export at peak times, because I dont have quite the capacity, but also want to reduce battery cycles as much as possible for a longer life. So my charge&consumption cycle is actually quite fixed >> charge from 2am to 5am at 15ish pence, top-up with solar during the day and export excess at now 9 pence until about 4 pm and use battery until next charge cycle.

So looking now at flat rate agile export (15 p/kwh), but that cannot be paired with a flux import with the cheap off peak charge. A full offpeak charge usually covers all my electricity consumption for one whole day, so having this early morning charge tarif is quite important to me. So now my idea is, agile wholesale import (assuming I almost never require the grid outside the office peak charge cycle) with a flat rate export, as most my export is from 9 am to about 4pm. This kinda works out to a very similar payoff profile as the old flux (which had only 1p difference between offpeak charge and daytime export). The added risk here is if wholesale prices somehow increase significantly from 2am to 5am. Looking at historic data this seems quite rare. Lets see I might risk it and give it a go.

 

[Atgni]

flat rate agile export

flux import with the cheap off peak charge

Right, so its only geeks with nothing else to do who can benefit from all this eco stuff then. And even then Scotties (you canna change the laws of physics) are struggling

 

[JohnW2]

Right, so its only geeks with nothing else to do who can benefit from all this eco stuff then.

So it would seem.

Furthermore, as I keep suggesting/hinting, I suspect that a proper costing, taking into account the capital outlay on ('finite life') PV stuff and batteries (and the then-inflated cost of replacing it at the end of its life) would probably indicate that one would have to at least spend many years "being worse off than one would have been without PV" before there was a hope of 'moving into profit' (if, indeed, that happened before more capital outlay was required).

There are, of course, some ('altruistic') non-financial reasons for this 'eco stuff', but I strongly suspect that the great majority of people who avail themselves of it are doing so primarily for perceived financial reasons.

 

[Atgni]

So it would seem.

Furthermore, as I keep suggesting/hinting, I suspect that a proper costing, taking into account the capital outlay on ('finite life') PV stuff and batteries (and the then-inflated cost of replacing it at the end of its life) would probably indicate that one would have to at least spend many years "being worse off than one would have been without PV" before there was a hope of 'moving into profit' (if, indeed, that happened before more capital outlay was required).

There are, of course, some ('altruistic') non-financial reasons for this 'eco stuff', but I strongly suspect that the great majority of people who avail themselves of it are doing so primarily for perceived financial reasons.

In other words --- its all a CON.

 

[JohnW2]

In other words --- its all a CON.

I suppose it's a matter of opinion as to whether one thinks of it in such terms.

It does seem that a lot of people who get PV installations (with or without batteries) probably have not fully thought through all the ('big picture' / long-term) financial aspects, in particular considering what their financial position is going to be for "at least the next several years" - and that is likely to be due to the fact that they are inadequately informed/advised and/or (deliberately or accidentally) mislead.

 

[evdamadiynot]

So were you paying night rate for day units? If so you were quids in

Yes and while we were at work and the house unoccupied.
But because we had all the big guns on timers running at night we were paying full day rates at night for those
Not so good when you are unaware of the fact and infuriating when you find out.
And when the relevant authorities are in complete denial???

 

[StephenStephen]

My flux peak export rate has recently increased...

It seems pretty simple to me...

 

[ericmark]

Yes and while we were at work and the house unoccupied.
But because we had all the big guns on timers running at night we were paying full day rates at night for those
Not so good when you are unaware of the fact and infuriating when you find out.
And when the relevant authorities are in complete denial???

I was lucky, I saw there was going to be a change, and I stopped the overnight import. This is what started the thread, I found costing less with fixed rate.

It does seem that a lot of people who get PV installations (with or without batteries) probably have not fully thought through all the ('big picture' / long-term) financial aspects, in particular considering what their financial position is going to be for "at least the next several years" - and that is likely to be due to the fact that they are inadequately informed/advised and/or (deliberately or accidentally) mislead.

It is more that what was promised has not happened, be it being paid for export, the amount being paid for export, or the off-peak rates, we have sat back and worked out what the payback will be, then the goal posts have been moved.

FYI, GaryDoesSolar just uploaded a new video discussing the very recent drop in export rates on octopus flux and it looks like it could stay or even get worse.

Yes, watched that, and that's the main problem, we plan for the future. But I suppose that's life, when I started work, I paid into a pension, and when I worked abroad paid class 3 stamp to retain that pension which would pay out at 65-year-old, then they said no we will start paying when your older, breach of contract, but they still did it.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

In other words --- its all a CON.

It's not by any means a con, it's there, if you have the capacity and facilities, to make use of it. As John suggests, making really good use of it, requires quite a considerable investment, and a bit of a gamble. The older you are, the less worthwhile the investment in pv etc. becomes, because of the long payback period. If I were to go down that road, I would be buying used pv panels, and designing my own system.

 

[JohnW2]

It's not by any means a con, it's there, if you have the capacity and facilities, to make use of it. As John suggests, making really good use of it, requires quite a considerable investment, and a bit of a gamble.

Up to a point. As I've said, one really needs to do the calculations as carefully as one can, based on the best estimates, predictions and guesses one can get. However, for at least some people those calculation s could indicate that it's not (financially) really "a gamble worth taking".

In undertaking those calculations, one factor which often goes overlooked is that if one is young enough to be likely to outlive the first set of PV panels (and, were relevant, batteries), the 're-investment' required to replace them will almost certainly cost a fair bit more than the initial investment, hence with the likelihood (albeit not certainty) of an even longer 'payback period' the second time around.

The older you are, the less worthwhile the investment in pv etc. becomes, because of the long payback period.

I am far too old to even consider getting PV and I'm pretty sure I would have felt exactly the same when I was eric's age (he's only slightly younger than me).

However, thinking back, I'm not sure that there has been any point in my life when I would have felt comfortable with an 'investment' which meant that I would be appreciably 'worse off' (financially for the next several years, even if there were a reasonable prospect of 'getting into profit' beyond that period.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

In undertaking those calculations, one factor which often goes overlooked is that if one is young enough to be likely to outlive the first set of PV panels (and, were relevant, batteries), the 're-investment' required to replace them will almost certainly cost a fair bit more than the initial investment, hence with the likelihood (albeit not certainty) of an even longer 'payback period' the second time around.

Exactly, and why the only set up I would consider, would be a system I designed and installed myself. However, technology is improving all the time, and with the improvements, the cost is constantly dropping.

I am far too old to even consider getting PV and I'm pretty sure I would have felt exactly the same when I was eric's age (he's only slightly younger than me).

Likewise!

 

[JohnW2]

Exactly, and why the only set up I would consider, would be a system I designed and installed myself.

I understand your thinking, conceptually, but I have to wonder whether "used PV Panels" (let alone "used batteries") would have enough life left in them for the exercise to be sensible - quite apart from the question of how much 'climbing around on roofs' I can reasonably do at my age. In any event, I think I would probably still opt to not be "worse off for a few years".

If I really felt the need for a reduction in outgoings, "in a few years' time" (if I were still around!), and could tolerate the 'decreased wealth' whilst waiting for that, I'm sure I could find other ways of achieving that reduction (e.g. a few less decent restaurant meals, or shorter/cheaper holidays).

However, technology is improving all the time, and with the improvements, the cost is constantly dropping.

Yes, that is one of the unknowns, which frustrate attempts to undertake calculations.

As I implied, I'm not sure I would use the word "con" in relation to this business, but I do think that a substantial proportion of people who 'invest in' PV have not given anything like enough thought to the financial implications - particularly if (and this is where 'con' may come into it) they have been 'encouraged' to proceed without having given that careful thought to the possible 'downsides'.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

I understand your thinking, conceptually, but I have to wonder whether "used PV Panels" (let alone "used batteries") would have enough life left in them for the exercise to be sensible - quite apart from the question of how much 'climbing around on roofs' I can reasonably do at my age. In any event, I think I would probably still opt to not be "worse off for a few years".

I never considered fitting them on the house roof, I have a large back garden. If I ever were to fit panels, they would be wall and garage roof mounted, for easy maintenance.

As I implied, I'm not sure I would use the word "con" in relation to this business, but I do think that a substantial proportion of people who 'invest in' PV have not given anything like enough thought to the financial implications - particularly if (and this is where 'con' may come into it) they have been 'encouraged' to proceed without having given that careful thought to the possible 'downsides'.

I agree! It's the same with these air sourced heat pumps. The government is providing a large sum towards the initial install, to make them worthwhile, but what do people do, once that system wears out, and then needs replacing - where they would have to bear the full cost?

 

[JohnW2]

I never considered fitting them on the house roof, I have a large back garden. If I ever were to fit panels, they would be wall and garage roof mounted, for easy maintenance.

Fair enough - although I would not regard that as necessarily being very aesthetically pleasing

I agree! It's the same with these air sourced heat pumps. The government is providing a large sum towards the initial install, to make them worthwhile, but what do people do, once that system wears out, and then needs replacing - where they would have to bear the full cost?

True, but the time is presumably going to come when new replacement gas/oil boilers are no longer available, so people will then really have no other choice (unless some newer-fangled technology comes along!) - so I suppose people might just as well get the initial government assistance whilst they can, even though they may have to "bear the full cost" for future installation (whether 'the first' or a replacement) ?