AI Overview
It is a myth that all illegal immigrants in the UK are Muslim
Undocumented people come from a wide variety of backgrounds and countries across Asia, Africa, and Europe. There is no official data on the religious affiliation of illegal immigrants, but evidence shows that many are not Muslim
AI Overview
Rough Statistical Estimate
Important Disclaimer: This is a highly speculative estimate with substantial uncertainties. The actual figure could vary significantly from this calculation.
Base Assumptions:
Total undocumented population: ~700,000 (middle estimate)
Regional breakdown from earlier data: Asia (52%), Middle East/North Africa (11%), Africa (20%), Others (17%)
Key Countries and Muslim Percentages:
Asian Region (364,000 people estimated):
Pakistan (10,542), Afghanistan (8,508) were the most common nationalities claiming asylum in 2024 Additional statistics relating to Illegal Migration (April 2024) - GOV.UK
Afghanistan, Syria, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran are more than 90% Muslim Who are the UK’s undocumented population? - Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants
Top country breakdown estimate for Asian undocumented population:
Pakistan (~30% of Asian): 109,200 × 97% Muslim = ~106,000
Afghanistan (~20% of Asian): 72,800 × 99% Muslim = ~72,000
Bangladesh (~15% of Asian): 54,600 × 91% Muslim = ~50,000
India (~15% of Asian): 54,600 × 15% Muslim = ~8,000
Sri Lanka (~10% of Asian): 36,400 × 10% Muslim = ~3,600
Other Asian (~10%): 36,400 × ~30% Muslim = ~11,000
Middle East/North Africa Region (77,000 people estimated):
Iran, Syria, Iraq: ~95% Muslim = ~73,000
Other MENA: ~90% Muslim
Sub-Saharan Africa (140,000 people estimated):
Estimated ~45% Muslim overall = ~63,000
Rough Total Estimate:
Asian region: ~250,600 Muslims
MENA region: ~73,000 Muslims
Sub-Saharan Africa: ~63,000 Muslims
Others: ~10,000 Muslims
Total estimated Muslim undocumented population: ~396,000 out of ~700,000
Percentage: approximately 57%
Major Caveats:
Selection bias: Emigrants may not reflect home country religious demographics
Data limitations: Country breakdowns are approximated from asylum seeker data
Regional variation: Significant uncertainty in actual country distributions
Time factors: Data sources span different years
Legal status complexity: "Undocumented" includes various situations
This suggests roughly 55-60% might be a reasonable rough estimate, but the confidence interval would be extremely wide (perhaps ±20 percentage points) due to the methodological limitations.