A Tale of Woe - A Lesson Learnt

[IJWS15]

The only time when I have ever seen a monetary value put on saving lives was years ago ( 10- 15 ? ) when there was a debate about trains jumping red signals and the systems that existed to stop trains in those cases.

At the time it was said that the cost was x million and the latest sysem had not been implemented because it was not financially viable based on BR/train company valuation of 500K for a life.

From memory the value was £2.7m and it was set by the Department of Transport and used for road junction improvements as well.

 

[JohnW2]

From memory the value was £2.7m and it was set by the Department of Transport and used for road junction improvements as well.

The concept we are talking about is known in the trade as the Value of a Statistical human Life ('VOSL') and is very widely used throughout the world in relation to matters of safety, particularly transport safety and industrial safety. There are many estimates (which vary considerably from country to country) of VOSL, the majority of which attempt to determine people's assessments of the monetary value of their own lives, using what are known as "wage-risk" studies. Essentially people are asked a series of questions relating to how much they would have to be paid in order to be prepared to undertake range of occupations, covering a wide range of levels of risk of death (e.g. ranging from typist to soldier or bomb disposal operative) and these data are analysed statistically to give an estimate of VOSL - a somewhat odd technique, but it seems to give reasonable answers.

Estimated values of VOSL published over the last decade or so (in US$) range from under $1m for South Korea, through $1.5m-$6m for European counties and Australasia to about $12m for Japan, plus some very wide ranging and very large numbers from the US! In the UK, the Centre for Environmental and Risk Management (CERM) have estimated that the VOSL for the UK is 'between £1m and £10m', but recommend that a figure in the range £2m-£4 be used for most purposes. One difference from the NICE approach based on QALYs is that VOSL is an average figure across all ages (hence life expectancies) and states of health - which is appropriate for things such as transport safety, since the victims could be of any age and 'condition'.

Kind Regards, John