Big Numbers today

[fillyboy]

True but some can be seen from an expected flu peak and then a drop off. It also isn't as simple as you imply. Personal experience from having to find some where for my mother. I visited a number of them. One common factor is age. It's pretty difficult to differentiate past that other than nursing homes but even those aren't dead simple.

Also it appears the NHS was prioritised over care homes.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...outbreak-minister/ar-BB14lzCI?ocid=spartanntp

 

[SirGalahad]

Also it appears the NHS was prioritised over care homes.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...outbreak-minister/ar-BB14lzCI?ocid=spartanntp

 

[motorbiking]

Its that last graph that shows why our death rate has been so high. With the benefit of Hind sight, clearing out all the "bed blockers" from hospitals to care homes in the rush to free up ICU and general hospital capacity appears to have been the cause of infection. Along with poor infection control in care homes causes by inability to lock down, PPE etc.

Back in March, the priority was ventilator capacity and emergency NHS capacity.
Had we done a better job of shielding those over 75, we'd be seeing 60-80% lower numbers.

 

[fillyboy]

Its that last graph that shows why our death rate has been so high. With the benefit of Hind sight, clearing out all the "bed blockers" from hospitals to care homes in the rush to free up ICU and general hospital capacity appears to have been the cause of infection. Along with poor infection control in care homes causes by inability to lock down, PPE etc.

Back in March, the priority was ventilator capacity and emergency NHS capacity.
Had we done a better job of shielding those over 75, we'd be seeing 60-80% lower numbers.

I can see the logic behind clearing the NHS beds but as you say, in hindsight ??

What we need now is a full independent enquiry, the findings published and plans set down for the future if another pandemic occurs.

 

[ajohn]

There's some blame game going on. In some ways it's a pity the graph uses week numbers rather than dates. The details with the graph suggest it is just lung conditions.. The only date I can relate to is when schools closed. Lock down is a bit groundhog days for me. Could do with something a bit better than surveillance reports on Thurs.

One thing that gov has mentioned is wanting an end to a particular carer working in several different homes. Not enough info in general really.

 

[motorbiking]

Again with the benefit of hindsight we appear to have not needed the capacity we created. Back in March it was - ventilators and testing. But both have evolved. There will be an inquiry for sure assuming we can afford to pay for it.
I also think encouraging overseas people to return home was unwise.

 

[Mottie]

I can see the logic behind clearing the NHS beds but as you say, in hindsight ??

What we need now is a full independent enquiry, the findings published and plans set down for the future if another pandemic occurs.

If? Don’t you mean WHEN another pandemic occurs?

 

[JohnD]

Again with the benefit of hindsight we appear to have not needed the capacity we created.

I don't think that's quite right.

Demand did not exceed supply, but this was achieved by limiting demand by rationing or witholding access.

People in care homes who fell ill did not receive medical or hospital care, many would not have had oxygen or other assistance. Elderly people at home were discouraged from going to their GPs or to hospital, and would not be taken by ambulance unless they were already very ill. The people who, due to age, frailty or pre-existing conditions had poor chances of survival were not allocated to ITU.

People in hospital were discharged without being tested. If they were infected, they then often spread the infection.

Disharging infected people into care homes exposed the most vulnerable; who were then denied treatment.

Perhaps the reason for this was our inadequate testing resource.

The government continues to exaggerate the number of tests carried out, by using the word "tests" to mean something different.

Despite claims to the contrary, UK has never yet carried out a hundred thousand tests in a day.

 

[ajohn]

Some of the planning is available but not a more recent one that some scientists have described as secret as not published. Also some sort of simulated run,

First one.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...ads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf

2nd One
https://assets.publishing.service.g...file/756738/SPI-M_modelling_summary_final.pdf

I'm afraid they are rather wordy.

The schools aspect in the image I posted might cause some worry but people need to realise that probability features rather heavily now based around % of population carrying the virus based on a sample. Lock down has got that right down. Seems to be more than enough to start it off again if distancing is stopped in the general population.

 

[motorbiking]

People in hospital were discharged without being tested. If they were infected, they then often spread the infection.
Disharging infected people into care homes exposed the most vulnerable
.

this is a valid - I don't agree with the rest.

 

[JohnD]

You think this is not true?

The government continues to exaggerate the number of tests carried out, by using the word "tests" to mean something different.

Despite claims to the contrary, UK has never yet carried out a hundred thousand tests in a day.

 

[motorbiking]

that bit isn't relevant

 

[motorbiking]

Still heading in the right direction:
26.5% WoW reduction today

 

[JohnD]

that bit isn't relevant

you mean you don't deny it?

 

[motorbiking]

irrelevant
/ɪˈrɛlɪv(ə)nt/

adjective

1. not connected with or relevant to something.