late to the game as was on holiday when this was being discussed.
heat pumps work by the transfer of heat we can all agree on this
however with a cop of 4-1 the 'heat' is as follows
if we ignore the fan motors (approx 70w ea) and losses through the pipework, compressor body, from friction etc and assume the compressor pulls 1kw of electricity
1kw is spent by the machine running.
1kw in =
3kw of heat transfer from outside to inside (HT)
1kw of Heat of compression by the compressor (HOC)
= 4kw of heat to the inside (HOC+ HT)
and 3kw of 'cooling' to the outside (HT)
HOC think of this like a bicycle pump which when you hold the base by the outlet -as you pump the tyre- it starts to get warm. This is HOC and this heat is also added to the total to make the COP
As outdoor air temperature falls the available free low grade heat falls (or current HP's ability to extract it) therefore HT falls so the COP falls too. HOC remains constant
There is a cut off point whereby the HP will actually reach a near equilibrium of 1-1. Many years back it was around 10c and all HP's had electric heaters installed
these days improvements have it around -15c
However a further complication is that at around 5c HP's will start to require regular defrosts of around 1 x 20mins every 4 hrs.
Defrosts work by reversing to cooling mode and extracting heat from inside to melt the ice on the outdoor unit. In which case there is a heat loss from the inside so the HP has to reverse again and make up that cooling of the inside then start heating the room again.
Most commercial air conditioning cooling is based on 125 w/m2.
In contrast heating is based nearer 80 w/m2
so with the added HOC the heat delivered is approx 150 w/m2 IE They are so oversized in heat mode which is why commercial air HP's seem great even when the outdoors is very cold. .
Domestic wet HP's
Domestic wet Radiator HP's are sized for the heat load only -This is why they insist you fully insulate your home when you install them becuase they cannot supply 30kw on the std mains supply to a normal house
Plus they are Kw rated at 12c not zero (as the cost would be considerably higher ) so they won't get the job. - They also often rate the rad water at 40+ which kills efficiency but reduces kit size
(Japanese water HP's with Inverters are really just air based units adapted for wet HP systems and inverters are only really helpful to reduce start current the COP's may look good on paper but it has long been considered the Japanese have been not quite totally honest about their COP figures....apparently )
Most domestic water HP salesmen are not very trustworthy. IMHO
Fundamentally air to water HP's work best when you need them least (spring) and worst when you do (winter).
Borehole geothermal gives the best year round COP
They need to get the COP up to around 7-1 before they really come viable alternative to gas. (I have spoken to a UK HP geothermal manufacturer who suggests this may be some time.. )
In big water chillers these sorts of COP's are being seen but the technology ( tubocor compressors if you fancy googling) remains very expensive and may take a few more years to trickle down to domestic or even small commercial level.
I have owned an ac company for 25 years or so and my house is heated by gas and will remain so until the government bans them...