Gorton and Denton

The turnout was almost the same as the general election. Very surprising for a by election. But even then, Reform could not win.
  • By-election Turnout (2026): 47.62%.
  • General Election Turnout (2024): 47.8%.
General election turnouts were over 70 per cent back in the day. The non voters are as important as the floating voters.
 
Oldies aren’t a big part of the voters

As above
They typically are the ones who vote more
Excellent, Germany has far higher taxes across the board and manages to be successful. The British mindset needs to change from private equity asset stripping to employment creating businesses
You probably need to read beyond the headlines - there are many rebates and exemptions. Not to mention the top rate threshold is double. They do tax the "working person" more. which is only fair.
Top Income Tax Rate45% (on income >€277k)45% (on income >£125k)
Our NATI budget has to go up
Is that what their manifesto said?
Won’t happen because they won’t get into power or get that past a coalition
hopefully
A vote for re form is a vote for trussbudget fan boi Farrage.

And also a threat to re form from tactical voting. Far rage has the cheek to say the by election was a win for sectarianism when his entire political career has been based on stirring and polarising debate.
Even allowing for tactical voting - analysis still has reform being the largest party.
 
They typically are the ones who vote more

You probably need to read beyond the headlines - there are many rebates and exemptions. Not to mention the top rate threshold is double. They do tax the "working person" more. which is only fair.

Top Income Tax Rate45% (on income >€277k)45% (on income >£125k)

Is that what their manifesto said?

hopefully

Even allowing for tactical voting - analysis still has reform being the largest party.
They probably will be but won’t be first past the post. Most people vote out of self interest or maybe anger which is why a non rascist might vote re form and environmentalist vote Green. It doesn’t mean they accept all the policies. I think Polansky is a lightweight but equally the kind of people coming into politics is changing. It used to be self made millionaire toreys and trade union sponsored labor. Then professional PR people. Polansky represents the social media generation who are influenced by 5 second tiktocks and that is the way forward if the young vote is being chased.
 
Parties on the right tend to have shy voters which skew the polls.

They tend to have chest-beating mouth-and-trouser supporters who tell pollsters they want racist Jew-haters in power, but then in real elections decide they don't.

Ignoring the "others" voters, in this election:

Parties on the left - 69%

Parties on the right - 31%
 
They typically are the ones who vote more

You probably need to read beyond the headlines - there are many rebates and exemptions. Not to mention the top rate threshold is double. They do tax the "working person" more. which is only fair.

Top Income Tax Rate45% (on income >€277k)45% (on income >£125k)

Is that what their manifesto said?

hopefully

Even allowing for tactical voting - analysis still has reform being the largest party.
Mmmm, difficult decision:
Do I vote for the party that might raise taxes, bu allow me to continue living and working in UK, without risk of deportation?
Or do I vote for the party that wants to deport me, but before they do, I'll pay less tax, if I'm allowed to carry on working, with this anti-equality meltdown.

Answers on a postcard, addressed to Farage.
 
Initial and proper statistical analysis, not just bias leftwing yahooism, already suggests the true vote is 100s either way between Reform and Green, with certainty only possible by recount.

If it's "100s either way", then with a margin of over 4,000 we already have certainty of the result.
 
It is most chucklesome to hear the middle classes in their cozy southern villages pontificate about grotty Gorton; people fortunate enough never to have to see such a dump!

And by the way, working class Hannah Spencer lives in Hale, one of the wealthiest places in Greater Manchester - millionaire footballer territory.
 
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