High usage using Off-peak electric

[Aragorn84]

Its also worth pointing out that with big changes like this, theres always going to be winners and losers.

If for instance you currently use very little power, but almost all of your use is between 4 and 7pm in the evening peak, then in effect your use is being subsidsed by others during those times.

Alternatively if your have a usage pattern which completely avoids those peak times, your currently paying too much.

A system-wide switch to ToU billing will fix that disparity, the first guy will pay more, but the second guy will pay less. This seems fairer to me. But the guy whos having to pay more will probably have a good whinge about it.

I suppose its not unlike those people who are currently on the "Standard" tariffs are in effect subsidising everyone else who have shopped around. If those tariffs vanished, you can be sure the cheap tariffs would increase in price.


Same goes for the likes of water meters. Those who dont have them, pay an average amount that may or may not reflect their use. Some have meters fitted and think its fantastic because their bills drop. Others their bill goes up because they're having 47 showers a day, and have a good moan about them.


I dont really buy the "smart appliance" angle, the current meters simply dont seem capable. However having an EV i do know that there are already existing charge units which interface with the likes of Octopus Agile, and can ensure your car charges when the electricity is at its cheapest. However this doesnt really interface with the meter at all. It uses an API provided by Octopus, and all the scheduling is done via the charger itself. Though i guess without the smart meter, Octopus woudlnt be able to do the billing for it. So the meter is an enabler, even if the meter itself isnt actually involved.

 

[JohnW2]

Reading that and thinking about it, if suppliers wanted to implement it - yes we could. Technically it certainly is possible with Smart Meters.

Technically, but probably not bureaucratically.

Anyone it was obviously a ridiculous tongue-in-cheek suggestion. There would be little point in switching supplier because one's current one had hiked its prices 10 minutes ago, since the new supplier might do the same a further 10 minutes later - it would be a full-time job!

To be more serious, I presume that some people's fears could be allayed to at least some extent by there at least being 'caps' on the 'changing every 30 minutes' prices - is that perhaps the case with the current tariffs of this type?

Kind Regards, John

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

I'm not sure whether the current 'smart' meters are smart enough to address this issue, are they? There would be a need for them to identify how much of the energy usage was being used to charge EVs, and I'm not aware of that being possible.

The EV charger could itself report that back to base.

 

[JohnW2]

The EV charger could itself report that back to base.

If it were 'smart' enough, it could - but are they?

Kind Regards, John

 

[Aragorn84]

To be more serious, I presume that some people's fears could be allayed to at least some extent by there at least being 'caps' on the 'changing every 30 minutes' prices - is that perhaps the case with the current tariffs of this type?

Octopus has a cap of 35p/kwh.

Its winter just now, and prices are fairly terrible, but in January my average daily price/kwh was around 15p. The odd day up around 20p.

But in November i was seeing some days where the daily average was in the 5-7p range.

My average for the whole time it was running was lower than the best fixed tariff available, so for me, that seems like a win.

Just moved house, so i've not got Agile currently, but i'll certainly be switching back to it once the utilities switching gets sorted and they can get out and fit a new meter.

 

[Aragorn84]

If it were 'smart' enough, it could - but are they?

Kind Regards, John

Some are. Most arent.

Moreover, most cars come with a "dumb" charger that runs on a 13A plug. Whats stopping you just charging with that if the wall box is reporting your use and charging you extra.

I suspect road/mileage charging is the only way to fix it, and thats a whole can of worms!

 

[JohnW2]

Its also worth pointing out that with big changes like this, theres always going to be winners and losers. .... If for instance you currently use very little power, but almost all of your use is between 4 and 7pm in the evening peak, then in effect your use is being subsidsed by others during those times. ... Alternatively if your have a usage pattern which completely avoids those peak times, your currently paying too much.

Sure, but it's the 'uncertainty' which is the problem.

If consumers knew (on a 'fixed' basis) what electricity was going to cost during each hour (or half-hour) of the day then they could (where possible) adjust their usage patterns so as to optimise their person situation. However, if the hour-to-hour changes are unpredictable (and, worse, likely to change if/when people start adjusting their usage patterns), then one doesn't know what to do - unless one spends one's entire life looking at a display of what the current rate was!

I suppose its not unlike those people who are currently on the "Standard" tariffs are in effect subsidising everyone else who have shopped around. If those tariffs vanished, you can be sure the cheap tariffs would increase in price.

Sure. As I've just written, a change to ToU metering is like telling everyone they have to switch from 'cheap' tariffs to what are, in effect, "Standard" ('variable rate') ones (i.e. the opposite of what people currently do), with the added complication that the smart-meter-based 'variable rate' can change every 30 minutes, rather than just once or twice per year!!

I dont really buy the "smart appliance" angle, the current meters simply dont seem capable. However having an EV i do know that there are already existing charge units which interface with the likes of Octopus Agile, and can ensure your car charges when the electricity is at its cheapest. However this doesnt really interface with the meter at all. It uses an API provided by Octopus, and all the scheduling is done via the charger itself. Though i guess without the smart meter, Octopus woudlnt be able to do the billing for it. So the meter is an enabler, even if the meter itself isnt actually involved.

I've just written about this. As I said, something has got to be done to address the 'fuel excise duty' issue, but I don't think that, in general, the 'smart' meters (or EV chargers) are yet smart enough to facilitate that.

It certainly will be interesting if the effect of EV charging is to reverse the current day/night difference in electricity demand. As I've said, one advantage would presumably be that electric space heating could then be done in real time, during the (then 'lower demand/cheaper rate) daytime, rather than having to suffer the inevitable inefficiencies of the concept of 'storage' heating.

The 'post-Covid world' might also have some effect on all this. One strongly suspects that, once all the dust has settled, we will be seeing a far greater proportion of 'home working' than in the past, probably for evermore. That will presumably have quite an impact on people's 'life patterns', and could well smooth out some of the peaks in demand that we have been used to seeing - since there will be less 'concentration in time' of things like getting up and having showers, cooking etc. which are traditionally largely dictated by commuting to/from '9-5' workplaces.

Kind Regards, John

 

[plugwash]

As customers who would benefit from a more "agile" tarriff move to one, one would expect the price of "non-agile" tarrifs to increase to reflect the rising average cost of the customers who remain on those tarrifs.

Working against this though is that customers don't like uncertainty, this makes agile tariffs a tough sale.

I get the impression that electric cars represent the first big push for smart loads. Given that peak load on the grid already tends to be around teatime the last thing the grid operators want is people coming home from work and immediately charging their cars.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

If consumers knew (on a 'fixed' basis) what electricity was going to cost during each hour (or half-hour) of the day then they could (where possible) adjust their usage patterns so as to optimise their person situation. However, if the hour-to-hour changes are unpredictable (and, worse, likely to change if/when people start adjusting their usage patterns), then one doesn't know what to do - unless one spends one's entire life looking at a display of what the current rate was!

I heard something about Octopus giving a pre-warning of the rate and when. Generators and suppliers know fairly accurately, when peaks and surpluses will occur.

 

[JohnW2]

Octopus has a cap of 35p/kwh.

As I said, a cap certainly helps, and offers some 'reassurance'. However, I wonder whether anything other than the 'prevailing cost per kWh' (e.g. the average cost/kWh over 24 hours?) is also capped? I ask because ...

... Its winter just now, and prices are fairly terrible, but in January my average daily price/kwh was around 15p. The odd day up around 20p. ... But in November i was seeing some days where the daily average was in the 5-7p range. ... My average for the whole time it was running was lower than the best fixed tariff available, so for me, that seems like a win.

That all sounds very reasonable. However, I could understand some people being nervous about the amount of 'trust' they were having to put in their supplier if the only thing 'capped' was the cost/kWh (at any point in time) - they might fear that, if there were only such a cap, they could, theoretically, be charged 35p/kWh for 24/7 throughout the year.

Kind Regards, John

 

[JohnW2]

I heard something about Octopus giving a pre-warning of the rate and when. Generators and suppliers know fairly accurately, when peaks and surpluses will occur.

Maybe, but if the rate may change every 30 minutes, that could become a very tedious process - and I wonder how they give their 'pre-warnings'?

Kind Regards, John

 

[winston1]

Whilst there is a cost to everyone, it costs an individual no more, no less to have one fitted. Seeing as we are all paying for them, there is no point to refusing to have one. So really that is a none argument.

You don't pay directly but as you say everyone pays so your installation does cost you more, it is just it is very small as it is divided by everyone else. The more people that don't have them the more savings for the rest of us.

The potential is there, to more easily and instantly see what you are using and when, in order to modify your behaviour and consumption. This can be done with older meters, but it requires much more effort and inconvenience - especially if your meters are outdoors. The Smart Meters come with an indoor display, which show your consumption and cost, minute by minute.

That is all very true. It has also been found that people modify their behaviour initially, but quickly get fed up with a cold house and not having that extra cup of tea, and go back to their old ways.

 

[JohnW2]

As customers who would benefit from a more "agile" tarriff move to one, one would expect the price of "non-agile" tarrifs to increase to reflect the rising average cost of the customers who remain on those tarrifs.

I imagine that could work 'either way'. If (as seems likely) substantial numbers of people who could have benefitted from changing to an 'agile' tariff do not switch, then they will be over-paying' for their electricity, even at current 'non-agile' tariff prices.

Working against this though is that customers don't like uncertainty, this makes agile tariffs a tough sale.

Indeed. As I've just written, I think it is the uncertainty associated with an 'agile' tariff that makes some people nervous. 'Caps', of one sort or another, can certainly allay some of the worst fears.

I get the impression that electric cars represent the first big push for smart loads. Given that peak load on the grid already tends to be around teatime the last thing the grid operators want is people coming home from work and immediately charging their cars.

True. As far as recovery of the lost fuel duty is concerned, if vehicles themselves become smart enough, the simplest course would presumably be to forget about 'taxing fuel' and, instead to charge ('tax') on the basis of vehicle usage (mileage) - but that, in itself, would do nothing to address the issue you mention.

Kind Regards, John

 

[Aragorn84]

Octopus publish the day-ahead figures around 4pm, so you know what tomorrow looks like.

This also allows your "smart" charger to figure out the best time to start charging the car as it can poll the API to get that info.

The uncertainty is certainly valid. I saw quite a lot of guys on the EV forum jump on agile last year, and a sunny spring and into summer gave a long period of low rates. Coming into winter the rates started climbing and you started seeing people going "omg tomorrow it's going to be 15/17/20p, that's more than I was paying before on my fixed tariff". For me those high days aren't an issue and they just average out. If anything it might influence when I charge the car if I don't actually need it to be full.

It's going to be greener to avoid those high days anyway, as high prices likely means we've fired up all the coal plants as there's no wind.

 

[JohnW2]

Octopus publish the day-ahead figures around 4pm, so you know what tomorrow looks like. This also allows your "smart" charger to figure out the best time to start charging the car as it can poll the API to get that info.

Ah, that makes things a lot more manageable, particularly if, as you say, it's possible to capture that information and have it automatically control loads for optimum (cheapest) usage of energy. I had imagined that the price figures were arrived at in real time, without any 'notice', depending on the prevailing supply/demand situation.

However, isn't there an inherent 'Catch 22' in all this? If most/all people used that information to shift their EV charger to using electricity at the cheapest (hence, I imagine, presumed 'lowest demand') time of day, would that not have the effect of converting the 'lowest demand' (hence cheapest) time of day into one of the highest demand times of day? If so, then the low/high demand (hence low/high cost) times of day would probably just continuously jump backwards and forwards, by no means necessarily 'smoothing out' peaks of demand on any given day.

The only way I can think of that could get around that 'Catch 22' would be if the supplier were able to control when the chargers operated, in which case they could 'spread that around' and avoid any major peaks. However, that, in itself, would not be workable because different users would have different times at which their EV "had to be charged" - some some extremely 'smart' system would therefore probably be required (which took into account 'customer needs' as well as supply/demand).

Kind Regards, John