Immigration Crisis

[Pat ex]

Don't need to know any of that, first distress call was in French waters, survivors found in French waters, mobile phones of illegal migrants all connected to French networks, everyone who reported sighting them were in French waters. Tide and weather did not push them back. The French failed to rescue people drowning in their waters.

How about you provide some evidence that they were in UK waters?

If you don't know what time, nor where they departed from, you can't estimate how the wind and tide will have influenced how they came to be found where they were.

As I've said several times, your guesses and claims are always coloured by your desired outcome, rather than reality.

As carmenmemoranda said, why don't you offer your knowledge to the investigators, it would save them money and time, and no need for any MAIB nor DfT investigation.

 

[motorbiking]

They don't need my help, they have already concluded the same as me. All I had to do is calculate the absolute best case possible , from the closest point of approach (Cap Griz-Nez to Dover just under 18Nm). If that showed they never made it to UK waters, then every other scenario would also show they couldn't make it. They were reported to have set off from a beach in Dunkirk which would have made their journey at least 40Nm. They were found around 12 hours later 7 NM off calais. They were in the water around 12 hours, Net effect of tide 0.5NM South to 1.7NM NE. By the time they were found the wind had changed from a F3 NE (pushing them back) to an F8 Southerly) which would have pushed them further North, but no more than 1-2NM. Perhaps you'd like to comment on whether it was incompetence or malice to conclude the rescue was the responsibility of UK rescue boats and not to task French ships in the area?

 

[Pat ex]

How about you provide some evidence that they were in UK waters?

I don't need to, all I need to do is to illustrate your errors in the data presented, such as this:

When the tide tables tell an opposite story, it was LW + approx 1 hour. (according to your estimated time of departure.):

But the tide and currents in the Channel are complex and complicated and simple models are inaccurate.

The English Channel is home to some of the strongest and most complex tides in Europe.
It's no surprise that the combination of complicated tides and a heavily congested area poses a logistical challenge and significantly impacts all water users in different ways. For example, strong tides in opposition to strong wind and waves cause rough seas, impacting safety.

The Changing Tides in the English Channel

The English Channel is home to some of the strongest and most complex tides in Europe and is one of the most heavily trafficked locations.

www.tidetechmarinedata.com

This time lapse video gives us a picture of the complexity of the tide and currents:

Even an expert would need to know the time and place of departure to have any realistic idea of there position at any one time.

 

[Pat ex]

They don't need my help, they have already concluded the same as me.

Then please show us their conclusions, not your own estimation based on some unsupported information.

Perhaps you'd like to comment on whether it was incompetence or malice to conclude the rescue was the responsibility of UK rescue boats and not to task French ships in the area?

I wouldn't suggest any information based on some amateur guesswork, that was coloured by personal prejudice.

 

[motorbiking]

Time is quoted in UTC and the reference port is Dover.

Do you need me to explain what a reference port is?

You will see from your picture it is UTC+1 and the source is calais.

 

[Pat ex]

Time is quoted in UTC and the reference port is Dover.

Do you need me to explain what a reference port is?

I need you to start providing some source references for your information.

 

[Pat ex]

By the time they were found the wind had changed from a F3 NE (pushing them back) to an F8 Southerly) which would have pushed them further North, but no more than 1-2NM. Perhaps you'd like to comment on whether it was incompetence or malice to conclude the rescue was the responsibility of UK rescue boats and not to task French ships in the area?

Perhaps I should comment on your report of the wind on the night of 23/11/21, and the early morning of the 24/11/21
You claimed the wind had changed from a NE, to a Southerly.
When the historic wind data clearly shows the wind was a N to NE throughout the night of the 23/11/21 and the early morning of the 24/11/21

English Channel Buoy | Complete Wind Report & Forecast

Don’t get blown away by the weather in English Channel Buoy. WindAlert has the latest weather conditions, winds, forecasts, nearby currents, and alerts for the area!

windalert.com

Evidently your explanations are even more coloured by your prejudice than I thought.

 

[motorbiking]

I can't teach you this over the internet. The RYA would deliver this in a 6 day classroom based course.
Different sources show different weather.
An F3 Northerly would not push a body back 4nm in 12 hours. The only force that really matters is tide.

 

[carmanmemoranda]

Makes me wonder why the rescue services kept asking for precise locations if it's that easy and reliable to calculate

 

[motorbiking]

My EP shows a 3-5NM area a mobile phone would show accuracy to around 10-50 meters or less a DSC radio would be similar. No amount of allowance ever showed them in UK waters.

 

[fillyboy]

Makes me wonder why the rescue services kept asking for precise locations if it's that easy and reliable to calculate

Even if you know where they are, searching for a MOB is like looking for a needle in a haystack. and that's in fair conditions.

 

[motorbiking]

And of course as it appears - nobody was searching for them when they were alive and calling for help, while drowning off the coast of Calais.

 

[fillyboy]

And of course as it appears - nobody was searching for them when they were alive and calling for help, while drowning off the coast of Calais.

Scoundrels.

 

[Pat ex]

I can't teach you this over the internet. The RYA would deliver this in a 6 day classroom based course.
Different sources show different weather.
An F3 Northerly would not push a body back 4nm in 12 hours. The only force that really matters is tide.

Yet you evidently misrepresented both the wind and the tide data.
You claimed it was HW - 1, but in reality it was LW + 1 - 2, not to mention the complexity of tidal currents in the channel.
Why did you feel the need to do that?

Then there's the apparent number of French incidents that suggests it was a busy night, compared to the UK claim that their resources were already involved in another incident which proved to be false.

There are so many issues to be investigated, a simplified and misrepresented estimated position based on a prejudicial opinion of wind and tide is of little value.

 

[motorbiking]

I was off on the weather forecast, my source said 25mph southerly. it was wrong. The historic data of the Dover Buoy will be accurate N F2-3. I've already explained that tides are in UTC and the reference port was dover. it was HW-1 to HW -2. I've calculated 12 hours from the reported first call for help and the time the bodies were recovered. My estimate of tide impact is accurate.

The tidal stream to use will be Dover P, M or Dover A if they got that far. 2 * 1.7nm NE and 1 * SW (net 1.7nm NE). From midnight the night before to the point the bodied where being collected there were 3 instances of SW current (on the turn of the ebb and flow) midnight 0.7kts of 6AM 0.5kts, then again at noon (UTC) 0.7. The tide always swings southerly in the English Channel, so we 1-1.5kts net effect. Allowing for the cancelling out of each tide.. the net effect does not appear to have pushed a vessel in UK waters back in the French waters.