Immigration Crisis

[Pat ex]

I was off on the weather forecast, my source said 25mph southerly. The historic data of the Dover Buoy will be accurate N F2-3. I've already explained that tides are in UTC and the reference port was dover. it was HW-1 to HW -2. I've calculated 12 hours from the reported first call for help and the time the bodies were recovered. My estimate of tide impact is accurate.

Your consideration of the current aberrations in the Channel was completely absent.

 

[gant]

Amazing innit some threads get locked on a whim and yet this thread has been bogged down at sea going nowhere for what seems like an eternity.

 

[Pat ex]

When will UK admit that their real concern is the discouragement of asylum seekers and other immigration, even by illegal means.
They refuse to consider creating safe and legal routes. They have shown that their attempts so far have failed. They continue to waste millions of £'s on wasted attempts to stop refugees departing France. Those attempts include allowing asylum seekers to drown, keeping them in overcrowded disease ridden detention centres longer than legally acceptable. Charging asylum seekers in error for minor breaches of law, Unlawfully decimating a student's ambitions who was legally entitled to be in the UK.

The list goes on, and on.

 

[motorbiking]

Your consideration of the current aberrations in the Channel was completely absent.

more details added. see edit

The tidal stream to use will be Dover P, M or Dover A if they got that far. 2 * 1.7nm NE and 1 * SW (net 1.7nm NE). From midnight the night before to the point the bodied where being collected there were 3 instances of SW current (on the turn of the ebb and flow) midnight 0.7kts of 6AM 0.5kts, then again at noon (UTC) 0.7. The tide always swings southerly in the English Channel, so we 1-1.5kts net effect. Allowing for the cancelling out of each tide.. the net effect does not appear to have pushed a vessel in UK waters back in the French waters.

I will see if I can find public / free tidal streams for Dover P. They aren't normally free. I have a subscription.

 

[Pat ex]

I was off on the weather forecast, My estimate of tide impact is accurate.
The tide always swings southerly in the English Channel,

The tide always swings southerly in the English Channel,

Yes the ebb tide will be generally southerly, but it was a flood tide. (LW + 1-2)
The flood tide will always be Northerly, (NE more accurately) in general, but the current aberrations make a simplistic overview of the tidal movement irrelevant:

Your consideration of the current aberrations in the Channel was completely absent.

Here is a simulation of those current aberrations:

This time lapse video gives us a picture of the complexity of the tide and currents:

Even an expert would need to know the time and place of departure to have any realistic idea of their position at any one time.

 

[motorbiking]

Its not effect of the tide for the hour, its the effect of the tide for the period they were in difficulty to the period the bodies were collected. We are trying to prove a hypothosis that when they asked for help they were in UK waters and when they were recovered (in French waters) it was the tide or the wind that had pushed them back. I calculated from midnight before to 1PM UTC on the day of recovery. If you want to do just 6 hours, you well get similar results:

You'll need a protractor some paper and a pencil (and a ruler). The reference port is Dover time is UTC

Hourly tidal streams in the Dover Strait : by VisitMyHarbour [Tidal Streams] - VisitMyHarbour articles

www.visitmyharbour.com

Dover Tide Times for 24th November 2021 | Tide Times

Dover Tide Times - free 7 day tide predictions for Dover with historic high and low tides, sunrise, sunset and phases of the moon

www.tidetimes.org.uk

For every hour back you draw a line (say 1cm for each Kt of tide) in the direction of travel. Then you net off the effect of each hour. You will likely conclude that it is highly unlikely even over a 12 hour period that a vessel in UK waters was pushed back by either tide or wind to a position 7NM off the coast of calais.

You can assume it was a SPRING tide as I wont waste my time doing a computation. It was actually around 80% of Spring on the day (full Spring 6.4m 1.3M) is . So the tides will be slightly weaker than the numbers shown. First number is Neaps, second number is spring. So for the example below you draw an 8mm line in the direction of the arrow. My app shows it at 0.7, that is because its only 80% a spring tide on the day.

You now have everything you need to check my calcs.

 

[ajohn]

does not appear to have pushed a vessel in UK waters back in the French waters.

Perhaps that is why the UK sent a ship. It seems the boat was in the process off deflating and both sides for one reason or another thought that the other would handle it. It seems the French have held an enquiry. UK not so far. There has been comments at this end that the ship we sent was not a search and rescue type and that there was at least one of those available. It seems there were fishing boats around that did not respond when the alarm was raised, heresay though.

Fact is that it was a f'up.

Deflating doesn't mean the engine wasn't running. They are refugees who have finished up being treated differently when this sort of thing happens. We send a ship specifically intended to this purpose. France - pass I don't know,

 

[motorbiking]

Normal procedure is:
Either the persons in peril or the nearest ship report the mayday and hopefully position.
If the position is not clear, coastguard tasks all ship in the area to provide information/and assistance.
Once position is better known rescue vessels are dispatched if available. In the UK typically thats the RNLI (in this case that would have been 1 hour+ away).

It is very common for the nearest vessel to be first on scene. In my own experience of recovering an MOB from another boat, the vessel who dropped the MOB mistakenly radio'd the lat and long rather than using his DSC, he made an error which placed the MOB 5 Miles away. It was only the MOB (who had a handheld radio) that I knew there was a mistake and we started our own search. I would not normally expect a handheld to handheld at water level to be clear 5 miles away. In fact the MOB was <1 mile away and we ended up spotting him before the boat that lost him. As @gone said, MOBs are easy to lose sight of.

Anyway - closest boat normally picks up the task of rescue.

 

[Pat ex]

We are trying to prove a hypothosis that when they asked for help they were in UK waters and when they were recovered (in French waters) it was the tide or the wind that had pushed them back.

No! You are trying to persuade others, on social media that the boat never entered UK waters, and sad loss of life was the fault of the French entirely.
Instead of waiting for the results of the official investigation.

I calculated ....

Of course you did, in order to support your prejudicial opinion.

 

[carmanmemoranda]

Even if you know where they are, searching for a MOB is like looking for a needle in a haystack. and that's in fair conditions.

You missed the point, but never mind

 

[Pat ex]

Fact is that it was a f'up.

Kind of like the missile landing in Poland.
Was it the fault of Ukraine, or Russia.

A f*up usually is a result of a systemic failure.
As far as I am concerned, that systemic failure emanated from the supply of the weapons that allows for conflict, and then provides the means to perpetuate it!

Following on from that failure was a failure to provide safe and legal passage for the refugees created by the conflict, etc. (I'm not only referring to UK policy)

 

[Pat ex]

Scoundrels.

School for Scoundrels, just started on BBC2, it's an English private school.

 

[fillyboy]

No! You are trying to persuade others, on social media that the boat never entered UK waters, and sad loss of life was the fault of the French entirely.
Instead of waiting for the results of the official investigation.


Of course you did, in order to support your prejudicial opinion.

The results have been leaked, it was entirely the fault of the French. Scoundrels.

 

[carmanmemoranda]

The results have been leaked, it was entirely the fault of the French. Scoundrels.

i d like to see those leaked results.

or are you the scoundrel for mis informing us ?

 

[fillyboy]

i d like to see those leaked results.

or are you the scoundrel for mis informing us ?

Be my guest, see post #235