Justin has just outlined the economic war we don't hear much about. I did hear part of Russia's trade talks with India. Held in English. Anything they want in any currency. They had also being working together on hypersonic missiles. Some have been tested. This is a bit of a hidden aspect about Russia. They do have good / trading relationships with some countries and have had for some time.
Fuel, I assume gas too. Biden has an idea. Remove the embargo and allow sales but at a set price that leaves a bit of profit. The Arabic states would "love that" and I wonder how feasible it is. It might be a backstop idea if certain countries start falling apart and can't cope. Some wont anyway so are bound to be tempted to trade. I think Russia would have to be on it's knees.
The actual war. No end in sight unless something gives. There are talks of diplomatic solutions again not that they will get anywhere. Another months or two might indicate how the fighting is currently going. The nature of it means it wont achieve anything quickly.
Not much on grain of late. Ships have loaded and it seems still some attempts by rail which makes it more expensive. Doesn't seem to be newsworthy any more. No mention that Russia also exports a lot. That is probably happening. I believe it's mostly wheat.
UK - seems we are heading for a depression. More unemployment etc but additional structural aspects are cropping up - strikes. Inflation tends to end but that doesn't mean prices will fall - they may have to be paid for a long time. Pay rises push prices up but not all will be covered by them. Base rates are generally expected to be increased further - more expensive mortgages. Personally I am not convinced that has much effect on business CapEx. If a business decides to invest they are mostly interested to the return and payback time and more importantly certainty. Wars, covid and messed up supply chains don't help with that neither does reduced growth.
Fuel, I assume gas too. Biden has an idea. Remove the embargo and allow sales but at a set price that leaves a bit of profit. The Arabic states would "love that" and I wonder how feasible it is. It might be a backstop idea if certain countries start falling apart and can't cope. Some wont anyway so are bound to be tempted to trade. I think Russia would have to be on it's knees.
The actual war. No end in sight unless something gives. There are talks of diplomatic solutions again not that they will get anywhere. Another months or two might indicate how the fighting is currently going. The nature of it means it wont achieve anything quickly.
Not much on grain of late. Ships have loaded and it seems still some attempts by rail which makes it more expensive. Doesn't seem to be newsworthy any more. No mention that Russia also exports a lot. That is probably happening. I believe it's mostly wheat.
UK - seems we are heading for a depression. More unemployment etc but additional structural aspects are cropping up - strikes. Inflation tends to end but that doesn't mean prices will fall - they may have to be paid for a long time. Pay rises push prices up but not all will be covered by them. Base rates are generally expected to be increased further - more expensive mortgages. Personally I am not convinced that has much effect on business CapEx. If a business decides to invest they are mostly interested to the return and payback time and more importantly certainty. Wars, covid and messed up supply chains don't help with that neither does reduced growth.
