safe to go to 1 metre....or not?

[motorbiking]

There aren't many nations that have more infected people than we do as a %. That means that any people coming from other nations, with a few exceptions, is likely to reduce the % of people in the UK who are infected.

On the other hand planes, trains and busses are perfect environments for catching Covid-19. So even if one person on a flight has it, the rest are at high risk. On the plus side they're all ticketed and should allow track and tracing. As NZ saw last week one infected person can result in 300 having to be isolated.

If we wait and open up slowly enough we avoid a large second wave of infections, if we go too fast we end up with a second peak the same size as the first, or bigger and a second general lockdown. Judging that fine line isn't going to be easy.

you have to assume 1 that they are correctly reporting data and 2 that the world is getting the virus under control at the same time we do. I’m not convinced either is true.

 

[ellal]

Lunatics are taking over the asylum

Lunatics have already taken over the asylum...

A referendum and a recent election have proved that!

 

[ellal]

you have to assume 1 that they are correctly reporting data and 2 that the world is getting the virus under control at the same time we do. I’m not convinced either is true.

Or number 3

That the current virus is merely a more virulent form of flu.

What you have to look at is recorded deaths above the seasonal average, and many countries are not seeing a significant increase.

So number 4 is the quality of healthcare available.

And number 5 is the quality of leadership.

The UK is certainly failing in that last one!

 

[Vinty]

"Confirmed cases" is not a good measure

Because it doesn't reflect how many infected people there are

It just reflects how many you've tested.

As you know, UK had a very bad record of insufficient tests, and is now attempting to catch up.

"Excess deaths" is a fairly good idicator of how many people the pandemic has killed.

For example, the number of "confirmed cases" on the day the Cheltenham festival started, was lower than the number of recorded deaths two weeks later. But we know that those who died were already infected, we just hadn't recorded them. Nor the number, probably twenty to a hundred times more, who had been infected and hadn't died.

BTW, do you know why Germany and Italy and France aren't on your picture?

A better measure would be confirmed deaths.

 

[Vinty]

Or number 3

That the current virus is merely a more virulent form of flu.

What you have to look at is recorded deaths above the seasonal average, and many countries are not seeing a significant increase.

So number 4 is the quality of healthcare available.

And number 5 is the quality of leadership.

The UK is certainly failing in that last one!

They could also look at the huge disparity in the number of deaths between countries.
Albania has 11 deaths per million while the UK has 600 per million.

 

[motorbiking]

Yes and Russia also has an excellent record, according to what they have published.

 

[Lower]

I agree, mass testing capacity and effective test and trace is required

I cant see what is wrong with a 1 metre rule for schools maybe 1 metre in community with masks.

Im not sure about pubs and restaurants -I wouldnt go to one at the moment anyway and for the business owners it will be a decision whether the reduced capacity means they would be operating below break even.

its a horrible time for some sectors.

how is your business going? -are your staff back full time and has your sales book been affected by CV19?

We've been back for about 6 weeks. Luckily, we can social distance relatively easily in the factory when people are working. Its keeping people apart at break times, at the start and end of shifts and getting people to regularly wash their hands that's the hard part.We've staggered shifts and break times and about 50% of the office based staff are working from home, but because things appear relatively normal (ie people are working at their normal machines, welding bays etc) they constantly forget that they're supposed to be socially distancing. We've had to introduce a three strikes warning system that resets each week because supervisors are constantly separating people. Site activities are harder as many tasks are two man operations, but the site guys work in bubbles of fixed pairs, wear face masks and gloves all the time etc.

We are lucky in that we have a few different and unrelated products that we manufacture and install and we had over 6 months worth of full order book before lockdown. Sales are slow at the moment, but things are starting to pick up as businesses return. We will undoubtedly be affected by the hit both the aerospace and automotive markets have taken as they're big work providers for us. However, other areas are flying.

Financially, we lost a lot of money in the 7 weeks we were shut down. But the business is fundamentally sound and we're cash strong so we don't have any debt to service which helps. Thankfully, we've not needed to use the government loan facility, but at least we know its there if we need it. We've made approx 5 people redundant out of a workforce of approx 150, mainly because we've realised we just didn't need them.

I think things will bounce back reasonably quickly as we're seeing the enquiry rate pick up again, but things are going to be bumpy for a while....

 

[Notch7]

the business is fundamentally sound and we're cash strong so we don't have any debt to service which helps.

It sounds like you have a very well run business.

the businesses that don't have debt adding to their overhead are the ones likely to survive.....and will be the stongest to seize opportunities post pandemic

I heard one report that suggested 50% of retail businesses were on the verge of bankrupty before the pandemic....so I think thats one sector that is due for huge change.

 

[JP_]

We are still seeing over 1000 new cases a day in the UK - that's the same level (actually a bit higher) as before the lockdown.

So, lifting the lockdown ... what will happen. Hmmmm, I'm no expert, but I'd guess things will get worse again!

 

[IT Minion]

We are still seeing over 1000 new cases a day in the UK - that's the same level (actually a bit higher) as before the lockdown.

So, lifting the lockdown ... what will happen. Hmmmm, I'm no expert, but I'd guess things will get worse again!



View attachment 196926

As discussed previously the numbers before lockdown are massive underestimates. Hospital admissions would be a better, but still not perfect, measure.

 

[durhamplumber]

indy SAGE says no:

Rest Assured Notch.whatever the govt do you will place a negative spin on it,not because the govt is right or wrong,it is your perma mind set

 

[JP_]

Hospital admissions would be a better,

We're only just starting to count the number of people who are dying at home, who are not tested or admitted to hospital.

Every country so far to lift a lockdown is suffering - Portugal, Germany, South Korea - they are all seeing a rise in cases.

Nothing has changed - we have no vaccine.

 

[IT Minion]

We're only just starting to count the number of people who are dying at home, who are not tested or admitted to hospital.

Every country so far to lift a lockdown is suffering - Portugal, Germany, South Korea - they are all seeing a rise in cases.

Nothing has changed - we have no vaccine.

Yes, but those numbers might be out by a factor of two, the numbers of people with positive tests at the beginning of the outbreak were probably out by a factor of 10 or more.

 

[EddieM]

"Confirmed cases" is not a good measure

Because it doesn't reflect how many infected people there are

It just reflects how many you've tested.

As you know, UK had a very bad record of insufficient tests, and is now attempting to catch up.

"Excess deaths" is a fairly good idicator of how many people the pandemic has killed.

For example, the number of "confirmed cases" on the day the Cheltenham festival started, was lower than the number of recorded deaths two weeks later. But we know that those who died were already infected, we just hadn't recorded them. Nor the number, probably twenty to a hundred times more, who had been infected and hadn't died.

BTW, do you know why Germany and Italy and France aren't on your picture?

That's also irrelevant if your tests aren't accurate.

 

[durhamplumber]

doesn't look like a joke.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=268732314437439

You would not recognise a joke if it punched you in the face