The Stern Report (aka Global Warming)

joe-90 said:
Big spark. The calculatable effects and 'wobbles' of the earth's motion are well-known and well plotted. However, scientists are just about all in agreement that what is currently happening is not due to cosmic influences.

There are virtually no dissenting voices in science today over why global warming is happening. It's got nothing to do with peer pressure swaying the thinking process.

When one man says the rest of the world is wrong - guess who is ALWAYS wrong?

Joe, I hate to say this, but your misguided. Climatologists do not take into account of the motion of the planet in space. In between finalising my divorce et al, I have been working at Cambridge Uni and had a number of discussions with their climatologists on this subject to clear up an misunderstandings I may have had...NOT ONE HAS EVER HAD A DISCUSSION WITH THE ASTRONOMY OR GEOPHYSICS DEPT'S, and not one I spoke too believed that the planet's orbit varied enough to alter our weather.

This is incredibly neieve, and rather worrying as CU is one of the world leaders in the research into climate change..

If you ignore half the evidence, you get a miscarriage of justice.

In case your wondering, I have also spoken to staff in the Astronomy and Geophysics depts, and the majority have no faith in the Man Made climate change arguments, but they also know that there is natural fluctuations that we have no control over.
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were at the arse end of an ice age..... there nothing man can do!! except keep the place tidy.....collecting green and blue bottles after making everbody wash em out... then take to a tip. then have them transported by mr big bucks biffa to be processed :rolleyes: very expensively(how much fuel and carbon is pumped into athmosphere just on bottles). Then as mr biffa proudly tells us 90% of these bottles end up under our roads......WOW....ffks why dont they just chuk em in the skip in first place :rolleyes: ......
Shut down our industries and shift the production to China and India with their state of the f art power generation and manufacturing facilities, oh, and continue, increase even, sending 'waste' to them by the ship load - Land fill problems only exist where there is a dollar of tax to be extracted !...
I guess there may be one or two in the UK who believe that our emissions remain overhead and affect us --
:D :D
Big_Spark said:
Joe, I think you should re-read my posts on this subject.

I have said that climate change is real, but that it is NATURAL not man made.

Secondly I stated in my last post, in reply to yours, that 99% of the scientists YOU HEAR from say it is man made. Those you do not hear from stay quiet, as the few who have spoken out have been pilloried by environmental groups, political advocates and climate chamge scientists, some have even been forced out of their jobs.

This is why you tend not to hear from the silent MAJORITY.

Global warming is a real phenomenon, but the real question is "What is the cause", the answer is extremely complicated, but it is a natural process that has occured over the 4000 million year life of Planet Earth.

Is man responsible, no, do we poinson the environment with unecessary discharges..Yes, and these should be stopped asap, but they are not the cause of climate change.

This planet has a very complicated interface between the surface and the atmosphere, more than 70% of this interface is liquid, and liquid that moves and is at various surface temperatures thus causing the gases above to heat unequally. This same process occurs over the land. It is this process that causes the low level weather we experience. Solar radiation has a major part in this process as it provides the original energy for the heat in the ocean and the land, but it also heats the atmosphere, to a greater or lesser degree, directly.

To further complicate the situation the planet has a very complicated motion in space. The Earth and Moon formwhat is, effectively, a double planet, the Moon is slowly moving away from Earth at a rate of about 1cm per decade as a result of orbital interactions with Earth. The Moon and Earth orbit a common centre of gravity that is some 2400 miles below the surface, not at the centre of the planet. Further the orbit of the moon is an ellipse, it is not perfectly circular, so the two partake in a merry dance around a point in space that happens to lie inside Earth.

This motion causes differential heating of the planet as radiation density from the sun varies. This variation is minute, less that 0.1%, but is is a difference. Then there is Earth's rotational axis, currently it lies near it's maximum of 26°, but this varies over a period of some 24,000 -28,000 years. This variation causes the lengths of given seasons to alter as you move away from the equator and will cause less or more heating at the Poles. To make matters worse, the planet actually spin like a top, in a slightly unstable way, and there is evidence that this builds up over geological time. The variation caused by the movement of the axis over time means the Solar radiation can vary up by around 2% at Northern and Southern latitudes. This is more than enough to cause the melting of glaciers or their formation.

Then there is a thing called precession, this is the slight matter of the planet's orbit moving arund the Sun, so the point in it's orbit where it is closest the Sun varies over thousands of years. This will have a dramatic effect on the planet over some 13,000 years. As the planet rotates on it's axis, it presents more or less of a given hemisphere to the Sun as it orbits, The northern hemisphere is tilted away from the Sun in our winter period, although on December 21st the planet is actually at it's perihelion point (closest the Sun). If you now tilt the Northern hemisphere toward the Sun at this time of year, it would mean that the "Summer" would occur in Jan/Feb/March and would likely be as hot as many parts of central Australia. Over time this occurs naturally, and our seasons naturally vary.

It is difficult to understand this process fully as the last time this occured, northern Europe was exiting a perios of glaciation, and although the CO² levels in the atmosphere were around 20% higher than today, the average temperature was about 4° cooler. The cause of the reapeating periods of glaciation in the Northern and Southern latitudes are a mystery.

Without going further, I think you will begin to see what a complicated process the atmosphere is, so many natural forces acting on it, mn simply lacks the punch to effect it globally.

Then there are those O³ holes over the poles. O³ is a very unstable molecule of Oxygen, it is formed easy and destroyed easy, especially by the impact of charged particles. The size of the holes vary with the season, we have all seen the lovely graphics, however what the reseachers don't tell you is that when a given Pole Hole is largest, it is pointed toward the Sun, and when at it's smallest, it is pointed AWAY from the Sun. Further, they fail to point out that the biggest cause of O³ destruction is charged particles from the Sun, normally Alpha and Beta particles (Ionised Hydrogen and Helium Nucei), but there are also ionised nuclei of neavier elements such as Lithium, Boron, Oxygen etc etc. These particles, being Ionised get caught in Earth's magnetic field, and then channelled to the magnetic Poles, which are some 5° away from the axial poles. These particles then slam into the gases of the upper atmosphere at speeds approaching that of light..this is the process that causes the Northern and Southern lights. It is also a process that destroys billions of tons of O³ every year, and the holes remain year around as this process occurs all the time, and there is no process for replenishing the O³ at these high latitudes as there are lower on the globe.

To emphasise this point, the extent of the holes has been seen to vary over a period of 11 years or so, matching exactly the period of the roughly 11 year Sun Spot cycle when the sun goes thorugh a relatively active period and there are more CME's and other energetic phenomena.

Global Climate Change is Natural, and we are fools to believe we have the power to effect the atmosphere on the scale we are talking about.

One Volcanic eruption can throw out as much CO², SO², CO, and other greenhouse gases as we can produce in 20 years at current rates..and about 50 eruptions of this magnitude occur annually either on the dry land or under the ocean. Some volcanoes are constantly pouring out noxious gases, such as Etna, Hawaii and the Icelandic shield, they have been for geologically long periods of time.

Yes we should stop pouring rubbish into our environment, it is not good for our health, but equally we should be realistic about the causes of climate change

Big Spark
I'm currently undertaking an environmental module as part of my Masters degree and I have chosen to write about global warming for my assignment.

Whilst I have had absolutely no problems in finding articles which support the 'man made' theory and the governments perspective - I am unfortunately, struggling to find evidence which supports what you have written and those you refer to as the "silent majority".

I want to give a well balanced argument regarding this subject - and whilst it would be great to quote (Big Spark et al, 2006) :cool: I'm afraid I have to use published articles!!!

Therefore, I was wondering if you knew of any articles or internet links that have been published which substantiate your and the silent majorities views?

Thanks Julie
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JulieL/B said:
Therefore, I was wondering if you knew of any articles or internet links that have been published which substantiate your and the silent majorities views?

Thanks Julie

I doubt if there are many such articles, the silent majority being..well..silent, and all that.

I wonder why the silent majority are so quiet? Perhaps they don't have faith in their convictions?
And another thing; if the majority are silent, Bigspark, how do you know what they are thinking?
They've spoken to President Bush II.

Perhaps you can find some information on the Halliburton site.
Who knows if right or wrong?
Politics are playing a major role.

Some different viewpoints

Just a little from Kyoto ...
Note the stance ... per capita for China, handy that !
Australia has largest output per capita

We are 2.2% of world output .... If we ceased all output tomorrow .. Even stopped buying anything from China and India would anyone notice the difference?
'World influence' we did little to influence the big boys at Kyoto.

Who collects the data? See what New Scientist had to say ...

The possibilty for fabrication is enormous as may be the short term advantage gained.
:( :eek:

Honesty is a thing called WMD !
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