UK Policy of tackling covid through herd immunity

Coronavirus is not just "mild flu symptoms" for younger people.

A year 11 pupil at a school near me in Reigate is in intensive care.

Also:
“TODAY THERE ARE BETWEEN FORTY AND FIFTY CORONA PATIENTS IN CRITICAL CONDITION ON DUTCH INTENSIVE CARE UNITS. “MORE THAN HALF OF THOSE PATIENTS ARE UNDER FIFTY YEARS OLD. THERE ARE ALSO YOUNG PEOPLE. “”

“MORE THAN 50% OF THE 300 #COVIDー19 CASES IN CRITICAL CONDITION IN FRANCE ARE UNDER 60,” tweeted The Atlantic‘s Rachel Donadio on Saturday

On Saturday, AD documented the case of a 16-year-old boy with no disclosed underlying conditions who wound up in the ICU after complaining of nausea and headaches. He is currently on ventilation in a medically-induced coma
 
Breaking point estimated to start mid-April (as graphs pass red line showing number of ICUs).
Peak mid-may to mid-June onward.
Other graphs then show re-peaks as kids and adults return to school and work in Sept.
SFK

Screenshot 2020-03-18 at 13.59.28.png
 
Notch7 said:
Coronavirus is not just "mild flu symptoms" for younger people.

A year 11 pupil at a school near me in Reigate is in intensive care.

Also:
“TODAY THERE ARE BETWEEN FORTY AND FIFTY CORONA PATIENTS IN CRITICAL CONDITION ON DUTCH INTENSIVE CARE UNITS. “MORE THAN HALF OF THOSE PATIENTS ARE UNDER FIFTY YEARS OLD. THERE ARE ALSO YOUNG PEOPLE. “”

“MORE THAN 50% OF THE 300 #COVIDー19 CASES IN CRITICAL CONDITION IN FRANCE ARE UNDER 60,” tweeted The Atlantic‘s Rachel Donadio on Saturday

On Saturday, AD documented the case of a 16-year-old boy with no disclosed underlying conditions who wound up in the ICU after complaining of nausea and headaches. He is currently on ventilation in a medically-induced coma
Click to expand...


Which just goes to show that @SirGalahad being somewhat triumphant about "the government's models" being wrong is unfair.
This is a completely novel global catastrophe, with new (and incomplete) information coming in, in a continual stream.

However we come through this, China has some serious answers to come up with.
 
Brigadier said:
Which just goes to show that @SirGalahad being somewhat triumphant about "the government's models" being wrong is unfair.
This is a completely novel global catastrophe, with new (and incomplete) information coming in, in a continual stream.

However we come through this, China has some serious answers to come up with.
Click to expand...

https://www.theguardian.com/society...-will-increase-death-toll-says-leading-doctor

But writing in the Guardian, Horton said the warning was met with complacency in Britain, where for unknown reasons, medical and scientific advisers watched and waited. At the time, scientists advising ministers appeared to believe it could be treated like influenza, and that a “controlled epidemic” would generate “herd immunity” that would help protect the most vulnerable against the infection. The scenario called for upwards of 60% of the population to contract the virus.

The government’s strategy changed dramatically on Monday when the prime minister announced that new modelling from Imperial College London demonstrated that more draconian measures were needed to slash the estimated death toll from 260,000 to about 20,000. Without those measures, which have transformed society, the NHS would be overwhelmed, leading to a situation that has driven a brutal death toll in Italy.

Their models were wrong. Its why the sudden change.

I linked to the report yesterday.
 
SirGalahad said:
Horton said the warning was met with complacency in Britain, where for unknown reasons, medical and scientific advisers watched and waited. At the time, scientists advising ministers appeared to believe it could be treated like influenza, and that a “controlled epidemic” would generate “herd immunity” that would help protect the most vulnerable against the infection
Click to expand...

Well the herd approach to catching it seems to be working

"Cheltenham racegoers claim they've been struck down by coronavirus symptoms"


 
Notch7 said:
Well the herd approach to catching it seems to be working

"Cheltenham racegoers claim they've been struck down by coronavirus symptoms"
Click to expand...

When was it ever said that Cheltenham racegoers were immune from it?
There are many more showing symptoms who did not attend, so what is the point of your posting?

The Herd Community process does require people to be infected, so it may be working after all ;)
 
Doug99 said:
When was it ever said that Cheltenham racegoers were immune from it?
There are many more showing symptoms who did not attend, so what is the point of your posting?

The Herd Community process does require people to be infected, so it may be working after all ;)
Click to expand...
They claim they caught it as a result of contact of that mass gathering.

Since in France, Netherlands and here in the UK, there is evidence of low risk age groups ending up in intensive care, Herd immunity isnt looking too clever.

Allowing people to be in big groups may / will push the curve way above the NHS capacity.

I would agree though that it seems no country has an exit strategy, so its difficult to enforce social distancing for an open ended length of time.
 
Notch7 said:
Since in France, Netherlands and here in the UK, there is evidence of low risk age groups ending up in intensive care, Herd immunity isn't looking too clever
Click to expand...

Believed to have been low - risk, not zero risk.


Plus, it is not known / stated whether these low - risk cases didn't have underlying, but as yet undiagnosed conditions (a number of young and very fit people drop dead during sport every year, from undiagnosed cardiac issues).

So, either the current knowledge is correct (underlying condition, or tragically the few of the "not zero risk" group), it was correct but is no longer (virus mutation / second strain), or it was incorrect in the first place, but just fitted the data released at the time.
 
250,000 racegoers attended the Cheltenham Festival. How many are declaring they have contracted CV?
 
Doug99 said:
When was it ever said that Cheltenham racegoers were immune from it?
There are many more showing symptoms who did not attend, so what is the point of your posting?

The Herd Community process does require people to be infected, so it may be working after all ;)
Click to expand...

Its now widely agreed UK was wrong.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top