Ukraine counter offensive

[IT Minion]

If you believe Ukraine can't win the war, would it not be better for all sides to call a ceasefire and negotiate a peaceful withdrawal of Russian troops back to Russia.

That's not how Russia negotiates. They'd define the current occupied territories as theirs and then refuse to return them. Then in five or six years they'd invade again.

But I should have been clearer. Ukraine doesn't have enough kit to win the war now in one go, but Russia's capital reserves are expected to run out in 2024 and by the the Abrams and Leopard 1 tanks that have been promised will be arriving for the next campaign.

Plus Russia has been very poor in defence, Ukraine might not have the kit to win the war but Russia might have morale and discipline bad enough to lose it.

 

[denso13]

would it not be better for all sides to call a ceasefire and negotiate a peaceful withdrawal of Russian troops back to Russia.

Vlad the invader could do that now, but he won't. He has the power to stop it immediately.

 

[transam]

If you believe Ukraine can't win the war, would it not be better for all sides to call a ceasefire and negotiate a peaceful withdrawal of Russian troops back to Russia.

In theory yes

But that ain’t going to happen any time soon

Russia can’t win the war either (?)

 

[Justin Passing]

Anyone know what the UKrs are using to shoot the missiles and drones from R down? They claim to be intercepting a lot.

It's almost trivial to make a kamikaze drones autonomous, destructive, and cheap, from existing consumer tech. Poundland cruise missiles. Taking them down simply can be fairly unsophisticated, by tracking or optically - if you don't mind where they land - but that isn't in mass production and it'll always be one step more difficult than the missile navigation. The West was at one time way ahead. Now? Dunno.
If the Russian systems aren't particularly clever then a relatively simple defence system like Israel's ancient US-supplied Iron Dome (~2012) could be enough. Palestinians don't have an equivalent. Presumably Qatar, Iran, Turkey, Syria of old, and random Arab and German groups have been unwilling or unable to provide.
There's long-since been a radio jamming/ anti-jamming arms-race going on analogous to the one with anti-tank missiles & armour. It's been a technically fascinating evolution since WW2. (A famous actor played a significant part back then. Quiz question - who was it? ). Back in the 80's I 'borrowed' a restricted version of a Texas chip (TMS320xxx) to play about with some of it. (Mutiple extremely narrow BWs, FFT to follow and track, , IYKWIM. Tiny power, really hard to stop and 40 years ago.)

 

[IT Minion]

At least some are thanks to the German and US provided patriot batteries.

 

[Justin Passing]

At least some are thanks to the German and US provided patriot batteries.

Hmm, £4m a pop..
"This is not a system that is going to catch up to smaller drones or ballistic missiles," he said. “Can it do that? Very. But when you're talking about taking down a $20,000 drone, or a $100,000 Russian-bought ballistic missile, with a $3-5 million rocket, that doesn't give you much of a return on investment. What it can do is free up low- and mid-range systems to pursue such targets."

Worth it for a cruise missile. I just checked, R's drones in development have payloads of 4tonnes and 2t, but they use a lot with 14 pound payload. (Though enough to kill a tank.) Those use a Canon DSLR - easy to knock out with a handheld laser. ( As anyone who's used one to video a music concert can testify.)

Canon cameras are hackable, you can make them, say, fire the shutter if they see movement. Detecting something the right shape would be routine, as well as of course having a digital output. If you take the filter off the sensor, they see infra-red quite well, too. Not bad for a few hundred bucks. You can do the same (other than the IR bit) with a £30 used compact - I've done a few. Interestingly the best hackers of the things were Ukranian and Russian.

 

[transam]

Uk is supplying cruise missiles to the Ukraine (?)

 

[Justin Passing]

Uk is supplying cruise missiles to the Ukraine (?)

Yep, plane launched 150 miles range. Much the same(iirc) as the range of the long range Himars missiles the US refused to supply. Bigger things, but probably not many of them.
Hopefully other countries will send some of theirs, otherwise we'll stick out like a sore thumb to Putin.
Those missiles drop to low level to avoid radar, but the Russians have(supposedly) A-A missile systems which work to a few metres off the ground. If the Russians try hard to shoot down a few individual missiles I'd think their chances of succeeding, would be good.

Incidentally, Patriot was reported to have shot down a Russky Kinzjal hypersonic missile. Coo.

 

[Munroast]

1500 mile would be better - hit red square, they could have taken out his last spare tank...

 

[JonathanM]

Anyone know what the UKrs are using to shoot the missiles and drones from R down? They claim to be intercepting a lot.

They were using Gepards for the drones. I don't know if they still have ammo for them.

 

[Odds]

Russia denies Ukraine advances in Bakhmut but it's clear they've missed an opportunity since February when Wagner mercenaries came close to encircling the city and perhaps that ammunition they've been begging for will come too late.
I'm not sure arming the Ukrainians with Cruise missiles is such a good idea. If they're used on targets inside Russia they can claim the UK has become a partner by proxy in attacking their sovereign territory, allowing China to redress the balance by sending munitions and military equipment to Russia. Time will tell but we're walking into deeper waters with no idea how far this will go.

 

[IT Minion]

The Storm Shadows have enough range to hit all of Crimea without the aircraft launching them crossing Russian controlled territory.

Thats a big change to capability and means Russia needs to be a lot more careful about supplies and equipment there.

Plus the Crimean bridge is within range.

It's not a war winning weapon on its own, but even the threat of the missiles will fractionally reduce Russian effectiveness.

 

[Odds]

The Storm Shadows have enough range to hit all of Crimea without the aircraft launching them crossing Russian controlled territory.

Thats a big change to capability and means Russia needs to be a lot more careful about supplies and equipment there.

Plus the Crimean bridge is within range.

It's not a war winning weapon on its own, but even the threat of the missiles will fractionally reduce Russian effectiveness.

Crimea is Russian territory.

 

[IT Minion]

Crimea is Russian territory.

No, it isn't. Ukraine doesn't think so, nor does the UK.

 

[Odds]

No, it isn't. Ukraine doesn't think so, nor does the UK.

I know. But Russia thinks it is. And has the legal claim to prove it.