What is the best Brexit deal we can realistically achieve?

[wobs]

Oh dear, another left wing myth I'm afraid, as both the LSE and open democracy are both left wing organisations.

Most immigrant are young (healthy is immaterial) and so many of them have families that they will bring over here. Most single immigrants working on the minimum wage, contribute virtually nothing to the economy, because they don't pay tax if they earn the minimum wage. If they have a wife and a child, then they draw benefits, and still don't pay tax. But as always, there are migrants, and migrants, and without a shadow of a doubt, there are many that not only do a beneficial job, but also pay tax and NI, and are a positive contribution to the economy.

We will always need migrants, and once the dust settles, at least we can decide the ones we want, and those we don't.

You don't like it? There are plenty of other sources...
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp574.pdf

Abstract


This paper asks whether immigration to Britain has had any impact on average wages. There seems to

be a broad consensus among academics that the share of immigrants in the workforce has little or no

effect on native wages. These studies typically have not refined their analysis by breaking it down into

different occupational groups. Our contribution is to extend the existing literature on immigration to

include occupations as well. We find that the immigrant to native ratio has a small negative impact on

average British wages. This finding is important for monetary policy makers, who are interested in the

impact that supply shocks, such as immigration, have on average wages and overall inflation. Our

results also reveal that the biggest impact of immigration on wages is within the semi/unskilled services

occupational group. We also investigate if there is any differential impact between immigration from

the EU and non-EU, and find that there is no additional impact on aggregate UK wages as a result of

migrants arriving specifically from EU countries. These findings accord well with intuition and

anecdotal evidence, but have not been recorded previously in the empirical literature.

- A report often misrepresented by right wing press.

Basically, any impact is infinitesimally small according to the author, Sir Stephen Nickell...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...ive-wages-infinitesimally-small-a7545196.html

Or here, for further discussion:

In other words, the research confirms what we already thought. Immigration may have some, small, negative impact on wages for some low-paid workers. But the idea that immigration is the main or even a moderately important driver of low pay is simply not supported by the available evidence. Politicians who claim the contrary are either so obsessed with immigration that they are blind to more important issues - or they are merely trying to divert attention from their failure to propose policy measures that would actually make a meaningful difference to the low paid.

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-small-small-impact-immigration-uk-wages#.WUfd7HkkuM8

 

[wobs]

I am dismayed by reading the EU rules on freedom of movement - linked recently.

It would seem that the level of immigration is not the fault of the EU but of Britain, itself.
It is a pity this was not pointed out in the run up to the referendum. I wonder why it was not.
It seems to negate most people's reason for voting leave and does not mean it will be altered if Britain leaves.


I did wonder why, to get residency here, I was asked to verify whether I had a job to go to or had sufficient means to support myself.

Indeed, we mustn't forget that the UK chose to not enact measures to control EU immigration, as it benefitted the country.

 

[Corgigrouch GTi]

Indeed, we mustn't forget that the UK chose to not enact measures to control EU immigration, as it benefitted the country.

Did it benefit the country or did it just benefit those who wanted cheap labour?

 

[JohnD]

It is a pity this was not pointed out in the run up to the referendum.

Wasn't it?

I have occasionally attempted to draw the Quitters attention to EU documents on Freedom of Movement for Workers, but they don't like it.

They also don't like being reminded that India and China are the two biggest sources of incomers, and entirely irrelevant to EU.

Perhaps their hatred of the EU is even greater than their hatred of foreigners.

 

[JohnD]

Oh dear, another left wing myth I'm afraid, as both the LSE and open democracy are both left wing organisations.

Perhaps one should say that's a right-wing myth.

 

[EFLImpudence]

Wasn't it?

Not by anyone that I heard - who mattered.

I suspect your influence was too small to make a difference.

 

[JohnD]

The Quitters were certainly very resistant to listening.

Perhaps they will be swept away in the popular tide of change.

As piggy Gove said when somebody who knew what they were talking about tried to correct his torrent of nonsense, "the country has had enough of experts"

The Quitters marched ahead on a wave of determined ignorance and meaningless slogans.

When does the £350m arrive?

Interestingly, piggy Gove has been selected by Rupert Murdoch as his candidate for the next Prime Minister.

 

[Doggit]

You don't like it? There are plenty of other sources...

Now lets see, which side did the BOE campaign for in Brexit when they should have shown neutrality, oh yes, the remain camp.

They, and the government, were eventually forced to admit that immigration did hold down wages for the low paid.

Common sense should tell you that if there are more people chasing job, than there are jobs available, then wages will get kept down to the minimum wage level, and whilst there are in work benefits to support those low wages, there are no incentives for the workers to do anything about it.

If Brexit does deter immigrants from coming here, then you will see a rise in wages to then attract workers, or businesses will go under because they can't get the workers.

 

[JohnD]

Now lets see, which side did the BOE campaign for in Brexit when they should have shown neutrality, oh yes, the remain camp.

Although anybody who is not a Quitter might think that the duty of the BoE, and other bodies, is to give the best advice they can.

If you were a roofing expert, with three hundred years experience of numerous types of roof, and the weather, fire, earthquake and storms that can attack them, and if I told you I was considering re-roofing my house with tiles or with wet newspaper, you might explain the benefits of tiles, and you might discourage me from going the wet newspaper route.

Would you have let me down by not rating both solutions equally? Or would you have done your duty by giving me your best advice?

 

[Doggit]

Although anybody who is not a Quitter might think that the duty of the BoE, and other bodies, is to give the best advice they can.

Therein lies the thin line of neutrality that the BOE themselves have to walk, they should have put both sides of the argument, and then left others to draw conclusions as they say fit, and they failed miserably to do that. By only supporting the Remain camp, and then admitting they were wrong, they destroyed their neutrality, and their credibility. Carney may be the head the BOE, but it as was his opinion, and not the banks that was given. Eddie George gave the opposite opinion completely.

 

[EFLImpudence]

Therein lies the flaw; NOBODY KNOWS what will happen if Britain leaves.

You may think it will be good and it may be - but nobody knows.
Some(most) are choosing wet newspaper just because the roofing expert was European.

 

[Doggit]

But we can make an educated guess EFL. We'll have a downturn in the economy whilst we negotiate new trade deals with other countries, and then if they are successful, exports will then expand, and we'll be in a different mess after that because the pound will get stronger. We've gone up and, and we've gone down, but we're British, and we'll survive.

 

[EFLImpudence]

You could make a educated guess and cancel your home insurance.

I hope you're right but I don't think you are.

From whom, outside Europe can we import electricity?
Oh I forgot they'll still want to sell to us. What's the point?

 

[Doggit]

I agree EFL, lifes always a risk (hence the reason for home insurance) but we've gone up and down for centuries, and always ended up a fair way towards the top, so it begs the question, do you want to live in fear, or in hope.

 

[EFLImpudence]

I wasn't in fear.

I may be now.