EU Elections 2019

[Brigadier]

This was the claim.



But the Brexit party is not the biggest party in the EU.

Take it up with @tombradby then.

 

[ban-all-sheds]

Warped,,using your idea of statistics,no doubt.

In what way does simple arithmetic become a warped idea of statistics?

Imagine there were 4 parties, A, B, C & D

A, B & C are all opposed to Brexit, D is in favour.

Now imagine that in an election, their shares of the votes were:

A: 10%
B: 30%
C: 20%
D: 40%

D would indeed be the largest party, but that would not mean that D's position was the most popular.

But I'll tell you what is warped - the idea that the Brexit party getting fewer votes than the 3 main explicitly anti-Brexit parties, not even counting nationalist parties also opposed, was a thumping endorsement of the idea of leaving.

 

[JohnD]

Take it up with @tombradby then.

He didn't post on this forum.

You did.

 

[Mfatic]

I think we've cleared up the confusion.
Brexit Party are one of the biggest national parties.

 

[Mfatic]

What perhaps is more interesting is if/when the Brexit party stands in a GE.
They might, just possibly be the largest party, but it would be a minority government, and they could not form a majority government with the assistance of any other party(ies)

Does anyone want to do the maths? Perhaps using the same percentages of votes for a GE. Although, of course, there is no guarantee the results would in any way resemble the EU results.

 

[ban-all-sheds]

So out of the 751 seats, you think that the Farage party has a majority?

That must mean it has 376 or more.

is that what you really think?

It doesn't.

Be fair - he was reporting that ITN said it was the largest party, not that it has an overall majority of seats. If there were 10 parties, one could have only 11% of the seats and still be the largest single party.

The Brexit party is the largest single party in the UK, with just under 32% of the seats. Whether 29 seats makes them the largest of any individual party in the EU I don't know.

EDIT: Now I do - they are joint 1st across the EU with Germany's CDU/CSU party​

 

[Brigadier]

He didn't post on this forum.

You did.

With the source.

Like I said, take it up with ITV.

 

[ellal]

EDIT: Now I do - they are joint 1st across the EU with Germany's CDU/CSU party

Hardly a great feat since they are a one trick pony!

But they still have less support than remain parties in the UK

 

[SirGalahad]

I aaked how the govt generates 10% of GDP as you say.You replied,"from banking".I replied,"how does the govt do that, they do not own the banks.Is it not just more tax..Govts do not directly generate wealth.

You really are confused. Money supply is not GDP and Gov / public sector is more like 40% of gdp.

So read again what I wrote and look into it.

 

[ban-all-sheds]

Hardly a great feat since they are a one trick pony!

But they now have nearly 4% of the seats in the European Parliament!

But they still have less support than remain parties in the UK

But the quitlings will all argue that they had an overwhelming victory which sent a resounding message of support for leaving the EU, preferably without a deal.

Possibly because quitlings are so challenged that they regard simple addition as a warped idea of statistics.

 

[motorbiking]

add conservative to leave if you are going to group a bunch of semi-like-minded losers together - Conservatives fought their last election on a Leave ticket. Only Labour are dilly dallying as they can't work out which option wins the most votes.

 

[Ihavenojob]

CDU/CSU party

Parties , there's two of them.

 

[ban-all-sheds]

add conservative to leave if you are going to group a bunch of semi-like-minded losers together - Conservatives fought their last election on a Leave ticket. Only Labour are dilly dallying as they can't work out which option wins the most votes.

There are several ways to make plausible comparisons. The simplest is to compare the Brexit party’s 5.2m votes across the UK with the “Bollocks to Brexit” Lib Dems and the pro-remain Greens, who attracted 3.4m and 2m. Taken together, they come out 142,000 votes higher at 5.4m.

A second method is to take all the pro-Brexit parties – Farage’s party, Ukip and the DUP – and compare that against the pro-remain parties, taking in Change UK and Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalists. That gives you 5.9 million voting unambiguously pro-Brexit and 6.8 million voting for remain parties, including 884,000 from the SNP, Plaid, Sinn Fein and the Alliance Party in Northern Ireland.

If you want to count Tory votes, you also have to count Labour.

The merit of the first two approaches is that neither tries to take into account the dwindling numbers of Conservative and Labour voters, where it can be argued that both parties retain some support across the Brexit divide. But even so, remain comes out ahead.


Various pollsters have come up with their own formula for how to account for those who stubbornly stuck to the traditional two main parties. Over the weekend Deborah Mattinson of Britain Thinks suggested Tory voters were 80% pro-leave and that a majority of Labour voters – 60% – supported remain.


That yields 2.1 million more for leave composed of 1.2 million Conservatives and 938,000 Labour voters and 1.7 million more for remain made up from 302,000 Tories and 1.4 million for Jeremy Corbyn’s party. Applying that to the totals so far would produce 8.1m votes for leave and 8.7m to remain.

 

[JohnD]

add conservative to leave if you are going to group a bunch of semi-like-minded losers together

Yes, I've noticed the hardline Conservative MPs voting in favour of all the bills that would cause Brexit to happen.

Ooops, my mistake.
voting against all the bills that would cause Brexit to happen.

 

[motorbiking]

The vote that will cause Brexit to happen was the Article 50 vote.

There are two sides: Those who's policy is to leave the EU or those who wish to reverse it. To count labour and conservative as neutral is incredulous.