Putin, arse, elbow

Someone - can't remember who - said the Black sea has minefields which would take months tro clear. Commercial shipping can't go in because it can't get insurance.
 
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IT Minion said:
I can't see anyone volunteering their warships as targets, even with the added opportunity to potentially start WW3.
Click to expand...
There is also the problem that the Russian black sea fleet includes submarines.
 
transam said:
Usual suspects pushing for appeasement of Russia are

French
Germans
Italians
Romanians
Click to expand...
No. Some reporters are questioning the wisdom of the war. ie What each side actually wins. That will get worse as time goes on.

In the mean time Ukraine's economy is in tatters. They need $5b a month to keep going. The EU is sending some of those as has the USA. Salaries and pensions etc. They need weapons and ammo = more $b, even ammo runs out pretty quickly. They are now asking for pledges to rebuild areas when it's over. A Urkainian who was interviewed was really annoyed with the west due to the support being lacking as he sees it.

It's just factors to consider not meaning give in. People can make of it what ever they like.

Pass on what the man from Hungary actually thinks. On face of it his concern is his countries economy. I haven't heard anything about his threatened veto. The man from Turkey is after something. It appears to be F16's or something, problems because he chose to buy some particular Russian gear. That is all I heard anyway. His economy is also suffering due sanctions from Soudi due to making noises about the bloke they chopped up. That knocked $3b of his exports. That may figure as well.

There is also the obvious question - can Ukraine actually win. Zelenskyy made an interesting comment. No idea how long this will take but it isn't just us who are fighting it. The support is as well.
 
Push comes to shove several nato countries would not amount to a bag of beans

Article 5

Plenty would waver and could not be relied upon

Putin knows it as well
 
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300 ships not allowed to leave the black sea
5 full grain ships stolen by the Russians from Berdyansk
16.7MMT of grain normally exported
Russians bombing grain silos are on youtube
The biggest bulk carriers hold 400,000 MT, but many are more like 40kMT.
Das a lot of boats.

Notwithstanding all the details, the Russians are moving forwards, which everyone thought they would on day 1.
Depressing, but even when the bulk of western arms arrive (July, I heard on US news), I'm not optimistic.

--

This was the Russian Black Sea Fleet in 2015, since which time they should have added 6 diesel subs:
"The handbooks contain detailed data on which it is possible to assess what the Black Sea Fleet of Russia is today.

The list composition of the surface ships of the thirtieth division:

  • Guards missile cruiser "Moscow".
  • "Kerch" is a large anti-submarine ship.
  • Sentry ship.
  • The patrol ship "Ladny".
  • The patrol ship "Pytlivy".
The composition of the landing ships of the 197th Brigade:

Large amphibious ships:

  • "Nikolay Filchenkov."
  • "Orsk".
  • "The Saratov".
  • "Azov".
  • "Novocherkassk".
  • "Caesar Kunikov."
  • "Yamal".
Composition of the 68th brigade of security ships:

Small anti-submarine ships:

  • "Alexandrovets".
  • "Muromets".
  • "Suzdalets".
Sea-minesweepers:

  • "Kovrovets".
  • "Ivan Golubets".
  • "The turbine driver."
  • "Vice Admiral Zhukov."
Submarines:

  • "Rostov-on-Don" - Б237.
  • "Novorossiysk" - B261.
  • (The ex-Zaporozhye) - B435.
  • "Alrosa" - B871.
Missile boats of the 41st Brigade:

  • "Bora".
  • "Simoom".
  • "Calm".
  • "Mirage".
Composition of the 295th Sulin Division:

Missile boats:

  • "Р-60".
  • "R-71".
  • "R-109".
  • "P-239".
  • "Ivanovets".
Composition of the 184th Brigade (Novorossiysk):

Anti-submarine ships:

  • "Povorino".
  • "Yeisk".
  • "Kasimov".
The minesweepers:

  • "Zheleznyakov."
  • "Valentin Pikul".
  • "Vice Admiral Zakharin."
  • "Mineral water".
  • "Lieutenant Ilyin."
  • "RT-46".
  • "RT-278".
  • "D-144".
  • "D-199".
  • "D-106".

  • "
 
The other aspect I forgot to mention more positive is when will Ukraine win?
transam said:
Push comes to shove several nato countries would not amount to a bag of beans

Article 5

Plenty would waver and could not be relied upon
Click to expand...
What makes you think that? Haven't you noticed that no NATO country wants to get directly involved in the fighting? NO NATO COUNTRY. There could be more than the obvious reason behind that.

What do you think would happen if there was a NATO versus Russia war? Russia's deternent is much like most others - if seriously threatened as a country the nukes come out. Any war like that would have to assume they wouldn't be used. A bit risky. Russia has the same problem if it attacks one - risky. They have to assume things wont go that far. Seems to be a rather shaky way to run a world to me but that is how it is.
 
Justin Passing said:
Notwithstanding all the details, the Russians are moving forwards, which everyone thought they would on day 1.
Depressing, but even when the bulk of western arms arrive (July, I heard on US news), I'm not optimistic.
Click to expand...
Yes they do seem to be.The video link you posted is indicating some aspects recently but TBH I don't think he understands the fighting problems.

There was a report that Russia's economy wont be reduced as much as thought. Pass really as no basis given. ~ 1/2 the amount expected. 8% mentioned if I remember correctly rather than 15% or so.

The EU is talking an enormous amount to end dependency on Russia and have the problem they could turn stuff off anyway.

Forget rights and wrongs as they are obvious. It's a war. It is intended to finish Russia as a power as far as the USA is concerned. They wont want to be finished. Changes in Russia ending it. ????????? No kit left ???? They are well able to produce some of that.

The other problems they are causing - as an ecconomist mentioned they are one of the fundamental parts of the global economy. Natural resources and some processed stuff in there case. Arms too if some one wants them.
 
Russia isn't able to produce high quality electronics. China is on the way to being able to supply them but they're years off yet. The main Russian tank plants are already shut down due to lack of supplies.

Theres a line of thinking that says that Russia has already burnt through so many tanks and that their reserve is so badly maintained (one estimate is only 10% of reserve tanks are fit for use) that they're starting to bring forward T64s, which are way out of date.

Attrition is a war that Russia can lose. Even if the war ended today it'll be a long time before Russia recovers to pre war levels.
 
Last edited:
It's rather hard for us to know what is going on there really. Extremely might be a better way of putting it. Take Russian troop losses. Recent UK estimate 15,000, Kyiv estimate 30,000. Which is correct? Ukraine's troop losses ???? One bit of info came out from Zelenskyy recently. The largest loss from a single Russian strike
www.independent.co.uk

Ukraine says 87 killed in Russian attack on military base

It is potentially Ukraine’s biggest military death toll caused in a single incident during the war
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

Visit to a field hospital. There will be a number of them. Up to 70 a day. Some suffering from shell shock who they can't really help. The rest are wounded some may not survive. Some passed on for more intensive treatment. Visit to one hospital treating troops.

Reporters there have said that they can't provide details of sensitive hits unless they are allowed to. Civilians who have been interviewed say the same.

There all sorts of estimates about all sorts of things around. There is also propaganda flying around.

Tanks. Most of the fighting is shelling and missiles from Russia. Not much mention of those from Ukraine.

Electronics. Pass but one wiki entry I read about one of their production facilities I will choose to continue to ignore. It's an area that never stays still. To get any idea of what they can do we would need to know what production kit they have.

We will know what's what when it ends. Currently an end soon is not seen as being possible but who knows? One of the end games is that Russia will never recover in it's current form.

The AlJ man had a bit of a shock to today well away from the war line. His hotel shook. A building had been struck. Apartments adjacent blast damage so windows blown out. One in Kharkiv was taken out earlier. We don't know what if anything was being stored there.

A report about what the police are doing in a town. Pretty sure it was Odessa. There are facilities to report Russian sympathisers. They go around and interrogate them. It seems 700 have been taken away. The wife of one taken away showed his decorations from when he was a member of the Russian army. A Ukrainian I assume as Russian wasn't mentioned. They translated his comment. We have been shooting at them for 8 years so what do you expect. They are concerned about sensitive info being passed on. It probably is. Maybe even back from the other side.
 
ajohn said:
The other aspect I forgot to mention more positive is when will Ukraine win?

What makes you think that? Haven't you noticed that no NATO country wants to get directly involved in the fighting? NO NATO COUNTRY. There could be more than the obvious reason behind that.

What do you think would happen if there was a NATO versus Russia war? Russia's deternent is much like most others - if seriously threatened as a country the nukes come out. Any war like that would have to assume they wouldn't be used. A bit risky. Russia has the same problem if it attacks one - risky. They have to assume things wont go that far. Seems to be a rather shaky way to run a world to me but that is how it is.
Click to expand...

Said loose cannons will be bringing pressure to bare on the Ukraine’s to negotiate with Putin

Same said countries will be reluctant to continue with sanctions or want to supply arms / assistance

As said loose cannons are the usual suspects

The appeasers of Putin
Probably lead by that scoundrel macron who sees an opuurtunity to
Play the big I am in Europe
 
IT Minion said:
Russia isn't able to produce high quality electronics. China is on the way to being able to supply them but they're years off yet. The main Russian tank plants are already shut down due to lack of supplies.

Theres a line of thinking that says that Russia has already burnt through so many tanks and that their reserve is so badly maintained (one estimate is only 10% of reserve tanks are fit for use) that they're starting to bring forward T64s, which are way out of date.

Attrition is a war that Russia can lose. Even if the war ended today it'll be a long time before Russia recovers to pre war levels.
Click to expand...
I haven't seen a description quite that bad for the R's - do you remember where from?
TBH There seem to be too many "Ukraine is doing fine" inclined articles.
Ukraine is short of anti air defences, particularly for higher altitude/longer range. Will imports from the west actually help or will R just blow them up? https://www.newsweek.com/nato-anti-...-ukraine-losses-russia-invasion-s-300-1696924


T-64 tanks have been supplied for the pro-Russky forces in DOnbas, so there were probably quite a few lurking about. 125mm gun has a range of 4km, the same as a US Abrams. Still handy. https://www.military-today.com/tanks/t64.htm
 
Justin Passing said:
I haven't seen a description quite that bad for the R's - do you remember where from?
TBH There seem to be too many "Ukraine is doing fine" inclined articles.
Ukraine is short of anti air defences, particularly for higher altitude/longer range. Will imports from the west actually help or will R just blow them up? https://www.newsweek.com/nato-anti-...-ukraine-losses-russia-invasion-s-300-1696924


T-64 tanks have been supplied for the pro-Russky forces in DOnbas, so there were probably quite a few lurking about. 125mm gun has a range of 4km, the same as a US Abrams. Still handy. https://www.military-today.com/tanks/t64.htm
Click to expand...
www.reuters.com

U.S. official says export curbs on Russia hit car production and tank building

Global restrictions on exports to Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have shut down a car maker, halted work on tanks and cut a Russian computer maker's access to circuits used in communications equipment, a U.S. official said on Wednesday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

The T64 doesn't have a stabilized gun or modern optics. It also has much weaker armour so it's less survivable. But I was thinking of the T62, which despite being only 2 out is a very different beast. The T64 is definitely already in use.
 
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