Revolting Iranians

noseall · 2026-01-10T16:01:09+0000

JP_ said:
yes, but why now

A lot of the worlds' unrest, deaths, destruction, upheaval and wars lies at the feet of one man. That's a lot of blood for such grubby little hands.

fillyboy · 2026-01-10T16:02:56+0000

carmanmemoranda said:
I don't think it's that simple.

It's like a switch has been flicked. By who though

It really has been brewing for a number of years, gradually increasing year on year. The financial crisis, sanctions and the war with Israel have become the tipping point.
Unfortunately it looks like it's about to get bloody.

fixitflav · 2026-01-10T16:03:00+0000

JP_ said:
So funny really. There was a democracy. But western nations didn't like it, because the nationalised their oil, taking control away from Britain and America. Fearing economic loss and the potential spread of Soviet influence, the UK's MI6 and the US CIA orchestrated Operation Ajax. The coup successfully toppled Mossadegh and consolidated power in the hands of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. This effectively ended Iran's first major democratic experiment and replaced it with an absolute monarchy supported by the West. Of course, Operation Ajax didn't have the outcome that the west hoped for - the current regime is actually the long-term 'blowback' from that intervention.

Very similar to what we've seen recently in Venezuela.

American and the UK say they want democracy, but what they really want is to control the production of oil.

What is very telling from history ... declassified records show the CIA spent roughly $1 million (a massive sum in 1953) to:

Bribe Iranian newspapers to print anti-Mossadegh propaganda.

Hire "protesters" to stage riots to make it look like the country was falling apart.

Pay off religious leaders to speak out against the democratic government.

I wonder, who is behind the riots today? What embolded them to take to the streets?

That's largely true, but we are where we are now. Maybe the Shah would not have been deposed if he had acted differently, and reined in SAVAK. But for the Iranian people who wanted him gone, it's a case of be careful what you wish for.

carmanmemoranda · 2026-01-10T16:26:34+0000

fillyboy said:
It really has been brewing for a number of years, gradually increasing year on year. The financial crisis, sanctions and the war with Israel have become the tipping point.
Unfortunately it looks like it's about to get bloody.

Still way too simplistic.

But I understand your view

Justin Passing · 2026-01-10T16:27:43+0000

JP_ said:
yes, but why now

The Tehran govt ended the subsidised dollar exchange rate for "Essential Imports", in December.
That spiked inflation and added to the increasing disatisfactions caused by sanctions, corruption and the rest.

The Shah's regime was an authoritarian social failure, corrupt etc etc too, and modernisation annoyed the clerics. Khomeni was hoped to bring some sort of broad coalition, but that didn't work.

All corruption & religious nonsense.

JP_ · 2026-01-10T17:45:51+0000

rds60h said:
Although Venezuela has the largest Oil Reserve in the World, the Oil in Venezuela is termed as Heavy Crude Oil because it is difficult to refine it and it's production has been decreasing since 2000, with exports going mainly to Russia and China. So the Oil isn't as important as you seem to think. As to what emboldened the Iranian people to take to the streets, it's living under Sharia Law that makes that happen. People disappearing in the night never to be seen again, public executions, floggings and beatings, no rights for women, the people remember when they had freedom as Persians and want that back.

If it's not important, why is America wanting investing $100 billion?

fillyboy · 2026-01-10T18:05:03+0000

JP_ said:
If it's not important, why is America wanting investing $100 billion?

Every cloud and all that.

MNW67 · 2026-01-10T18:25:55+0000

rds60h said:
Although Venezuela has the largest Oil Reserve in the World, the Oil in Venezuela is termed as Heavy Crude Oil because it is difficult to refine it and it's production has been decreasing since 2000, with exports going mainly to Russia and China. So the Oil isn't as important as you seem to think. As to what emboldened the Iranian people to take to the streets, it's living under Sharia Law that makes that happen. People disappearing in the night never to be seen again, public executions, floggings and beatings, no rights for women, the people remember when they had freedom as Persians and want that back.

I've asked before what a successful new regime for Iran might look like. I am pretty sure it wouldn't be fully democratic. At least, not at first. Maybe something like Turkey.

SPLINE · 2026-01-10T18:58:22+0000

MNW67 said:
I am pretty sure it wouldn't be fully democratic. At least, not at first. Maybe something like Turkey.

....or Britain.

Elsa TLC · 2026-01-10T19:03:46+0000

JP_ said:
I wonder, who is behind the riots today? What embolded them to take to the streets?

More than likely Israel. Yet I suspect they stopped short of putting baby's in ovens a raping women and children before they murdered them.

All what Iran financed.

fillyboy · 2026-01-10T19:20:16+0000

MNW67 said:
I've asked before what a successful new regime for Iran might look like. I am pretty sure it wouldn't be fully democratic. At least, not at first. Maybe something like Turkey.

There are very few democracies in the ME, I can only think of one and that's Israel. It's also one of the must successful states in the ME, and other ME countries see that.
Listening to the Crown Prince I think he wants to leave behind some sort of legacy and a free Iran would certainly achieve that.
He's popular with many in Iran (probably not all) and would certainly make a unifying figurehead, until something can be organised regarding elections, a return to the Shah days would probably not be helpful. Not sure who can help them with that, Israel are ready to step in with technology and help on the water infrastructure, I don't think they should get involved politically.
Jordan is another country run by a Royal Family, deep down they know their days are numbered simply down to demographics, Palestinians will eventually form the majority there and the Royal family will have to cede power, so Jordan, not being a democracy, unable to help, Egypt, not a democracy - unable to help.
The Crown Prince is probably their best bet. Loads of Iranian dissidents living abroad who would probably return to help.
Once the Ayatollah is on that plane to Moscow, the IRGC will probably lay down their arms or swear allegiance to the Crown Prince.

MNW67 · 2026-01-10T19:27:00+0000

fillyboy said:
There are very few democracies in the ME, I can only think of one and that's Israel. It's also one of the must successful states in the ME, and other ME countries see that.
Listening to the Crown Prince I think he wants to leave behind some sort of legacy and a free Iran would certainly achieve that.
He's popular with many in Iran (probably not all) and would certainly make a unifying figurehead, until something can be organised regarding elections, a return to the Shah days would probably not be helpful. Not sure who can help them with that, Israel are ready to step in with technology and help on the water infrastructure, I don't think they should get involved politically.
Jordan is another country run by a Royal Family, deep down they know their days are numbered simply down to demographics, Palestinians will eventually form the majority there and the Royal family will have to cede power, so Jordan, not being a democracy, unable to help, Egypt, not a democracy - unable to help.
The Crown Prince is probably their best bet. Loads of Iranian dissidents living abroad who would probably return to help.
Once the Ayatollah is on that plane to Moscow, the IRGC will probably lay down their arms or swear allegiance to the Crown Prince.

Are they ready for democracy. Things have gone backwards in that regards in some Muslim countries. I have read before that it's not the city dwellers who would be the problem. But that there is a majority of traditional rural types. Anyway, I only know the basics, but I am hoping for the best.

carmanmemoranda · 2026-01-10T20:12:31+0000

fillyboy said:
Every cloud and all that.

Theft do you mean ?

Kraven · 2026-01-10T20:18:32+0000

fillyboy said:
Inflation at 50%, unaffordable food and a water crisis is not of the Wests making.

You know, Iran has struggled under sanctions for more than a decade.

transam · 2026-01-10T20:25:03+0000

Apparently Hospitals are full of casualties of the security forces / militia

Some government buildings have been torched ?

Looks like any one aligned to Russia is having a bad time ??

Syria
Venezuela
Iran

Revolting Iranians

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