RNLI

King Billy · 15 Jul 2026

morqthana said:
As one of the narrowest and most well-known international waterways lacking dangerous currents, the Channel has been the first objective of numerous innovative sea, air, and human powered crossing technologies.

Currents in the English Channel can be highly dangerous. They are fast, unpredictable, and often exceed speeds of 6 km/h (or 4 mph). These severe conditions are driven by strong tidal flows and heavy storms from the North Atlantic.

Navigating the English Channel in an overloaded inflatable is extremely dangerous. These boats lack solid hulls, making them prone to capsizing. Overcrowding drastically reduces buoyancy, reduces the freeboard (distance from the water to the top of the boat), and causes the vessel to take on water. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Which brings me on to the English Channel which offers a not dissimilar cocktail of ingredients. I reckon I have made this crossing about 20 times, generally in summer, sometimes in winter. Quite frankly, it always throws up some surprise however well prepared you are. So here are a few tips garnered from many years of making the trip:The high volume of maritime traffic, harsh winds, and strong tidal currents create massive navigational hazards. Large cargo ships traversing the strait make the crossing exceptionally hazardous for unseaworthy or overloaded craft.

No Steering Control: Cramming too much weight into an inflatable raft submerges the sides. This leaves the boat entirely at the mercy of strong ocean currents and heavy swells.

motorbiking · 15 Jul 2026

King Billy said:
Combined with other effects, such as weather, other traffic, change in launching sites, etc it will make a difference.

combining things that don't make a difference with things that make a difference you mean.

You're as clueless as boyo.

King Billy · 15 Jul 2026

Mottie said:
What is a King?

In what context?
It is usually the noun assigned to a male sovereign.
But it could be used figuratively, as in the King of the jungle.
It could be a surname.
It could be the common name of a reptile.
It could be a substituted word in place of an offensive word, such as 'king 'ell.
What context were you thinking of?

Now tell us what an illegal migrant is.

King Billy · 15 Jul 2026

motorbiking said:
combining things that don't make a difference with things that make a difference you mean.

Such as?

The English Channel crossing is deadly due to heavily packed inflatable boats, freezing water temperatures, and sudden rough waves. These factors are complicated by the world's busiest shipping lanes, panicked launches from the shore, and poor engine quality. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

Maritime and Natural Dangers

Busiest shipping lane: Over 500 massive commercial ships navigate this narrow waterway daily. Small boats are hard to see and easily swamped by the large wakes of cargo ships. [1, 2, 3]

Cold water: The water is extremely cold year-round. Even in summer, immersion causes rapid hypothermia (dangerously low body temperature). [1, 2, 3, 4]

Strong currents: The narrow Dover Strait produces unpredictable, fast-moving tides and currents that can pull small boats off course. [1, 2]

Severe weather: High winds and sudden storms create dangerous waves. Smugglers sometimes risk bad weather to avoid police. [1, 2]

motorbiking · 15 Jul 2026

King Billy said:
I think AI is more reliable than a so-called expert who uses his expertise to flatly deny what other experts assert.

Boyo's links talk about narrow channels, not the English Channel, which is 20 miles "narrow". There is nothing unpredictable about the tides in the English Channel, they aren't particularly strong either (dover to calais). The tide in the dover strait will not affect the steering of a vessel. the CoG is affected but not the steering. If you set off half-way through one tide, you will find that the tides cancel each other out and your course to steer wont be changed much.

None of the factors you list change the ability for the illegals to cross from one year to the next. They just wait for a good day to cross.

Feel free to reference your experts.

King Billy · 15 Jul 2026

motorbiking said:
from one year to the next. They just wait for a good day to cross.

Exactly, the number of good days varies unpredictably. Some years there are more, some years less.

The number of favourable days—often called "red days" by officials—varies significantly from year to year. These are days when wind speed, wave height, and rainfall create conditions suitable for small boat crossings.

Weather Data and Variations
The number of good weather days shifts annually and seasonally. [1]

Annual shifts: Home Office data showed 190 red days in the 12 months up to April 2025, which was a record high and an 80% increase from the prior year.

Seasonal shifts: Historically, the peak season for these crossings is the late summer, as calmer weather prevails. [1, 2]

motorbiking said:
Feel free to reference your experts.

I already have referenced multiple experts, posted them on here, and I find them consistent and reliable.
Whereas your clams don't hold water, 'scuse the pun.

motorbiking · 15 Jul 2026

King Billy said:
Exactly, the number of good days varies unpredictably. Some years there are more, some years less.

This affects the crossings from one day to the next and one month to the next. We have seen that when there are weather factors (not tide, not shipping, etc) the illegals cluster their crossing on the next good (red) day. as backed up by your link.

The only thing that affects how many illegals can cross from one year to the next, is the supply and the demand.

King Billy said:
I already have referenced multiple experts, posted them on here, and I find them consistent and reliable.
Whereas your clams don't hold water, 'scuse the pun.

what have I claimed that you think is incorrect?

Koolpc · 15 Jul 2026

I love these forums. Lol....

King Billy · 15 Jul 2026

motorbiking said:
This affects the crossings from one day to the next and one month to the next. We have seen that when there are weather factors (not tide, not shipping, etc) the illegals cluster their crossing on the next good day.

The only thing that affects how many illegals can cross from one year to the next, is the supply and the demand.

Weather Data and Variations
The number of good weather days shifts annually and seasonally. [1]

Annual shifts: Home Office data showed 190 red days in the 12 months up to April 2025, which was a record high and an 80% increase from the prior year.

Seasonal shifts: Historically, the peak season for these crossings is the late summer, as calmer weather prevails. [1, 2]

motorbiking said:
what have I claimed that you think is incorrect?

That factors do not change year to year. (referring only to this thread)

Here's a few more examples of your claim:

motorbiking said:
Not from one year to the next and it makes little difference

motorbiking said:
Each year the tides are broadly the same as the previous year. Nothing much changes about the orbit of the sun and the moon, from one year to the next that would make any significant impact on navigation. The tides do not fall at the same time every day, because the cycle is just under 6.5 hours.

Tides affect currents correct - its simple gravity the water must move from one place to the other based on the pull of the moon and the sun. Atmospheric pressure has a negligible impact on navigation. A tide being 10cm higher makes f**all difference to a plan.

motorbiking said:
Tides have no impact on the number of people who choose to cross each year.

I suspect there are several more instances of you claiming that conditions do not change year to year, and that the varying conditions do not affect the number of boat crossings annually.

Koolpc · 15 Jul 2026

King Billy · 15 Jul 2026

Koolpc said:
I love these forums. Lol....

You should try a positive contribution occasionally.
You might find the forum even more rewarding.

Koolpc said:
View attachment 418411
Noseall loves his PPE. He wears it everywhere! He loves to wear it on the French beaches where he loads up the dinghies with those wanting to stretch the RNLI and their resources!

Koolpc said:

Koolpc said:
Woof!

motorbiking · 15 Jul 2026

King Billy said:
That factors do not change year to year. (referring only to this thread)

Here's a few more examples of your claim:

I suspect there are several more instances of you claiming that conditions do not change year to year, and that the varying conditions do not affect the number of boat crossings annually.

Tides do not change significantly from one year to the next. We have around the same number of high tides and the same number of low tides, the same number of neaps and the same number of springs. This is correct. The tide only affects the time of day they can cross for optimal conditions. They are also not unpredictable, they are published in books and have been published for many years.

Prove me wrong.

fillyboy · 15 Jul 2026

motorbiking said:
This affects the crossings from one day to the next and one month to the next. We have seen that when there are weather factors (not tide, not shipping, etc) the illegals cluster their crossing on the next good day.

The only thing that affects how many illegals can cross from one year to the next, is the supply and the demand.

what have I claimed that you think is incorrect?

Never worried too much about tides mesen, wind, that's another story. I once found God on the way from Barmouth to Aberystwith, after sitting it out for a couple of days decided to go for it with a forecast 4-5 occasional 6, it was more like 6 turning into a 7, I found myself on my knees at one point praying to me deceased Ma, making promises I knew I'd never keep. Desperate for a wee but deeming it too hazardous to go below, I p155ed meself where I knelt. We got there and made it into port, reading the guides (afterwards) we should never have attempted to go in, we were outside the tidal window and the rocks either side of the entrance beckoned, it would have been safer to stay offshore, the boats were capable even if we weren't.

Bristol Channel has some strong tides, but still nothing to match the Channel Isles where sailing backwards is not unusual. (12 knot tides?).
What are the tides on the small boat route?, 3-4 kts on a spring?

motorbiking · 15 Jul 2026

King Billy said:
You should try a positive contribution occasionally.

waiting..

King Billy · 15 Jul 2026

motorbiking said:
Tides do not change significantly from one year to the next. We have around the same number of high tides and the same number of low tides, the same number of neaps and the same number of springs. This is correct. The tide only affects the time of day they can cross for optimal conditions. They are also not unpredictable, they are published in books and have been published for many years.

Prove me wrong.

Strawman argument.
No-one is arguing that the tides are not predictable. But they are not the only influence on small boat crossings, which we've been stating for the last umpteen pages.

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