RNLI

[noseall]

There are or were other factors, e.g. weather, tides, variations in beach patrols, launching from Belgium, etc.

Tidal current = massive effect on who makes it across in poorly powered overcorwded small boats. Especially when coupled with other factors like wind direction etc.

 

[King Billy]

more evidence you have no clue. The links don't even support the cr*p your AI generated.

I think AI is more reliable than a so-called expert who uses his expertise to flatly deny what other experts assert.

 

[Mottie]

Several Right-wing posters, including the two I've quoted, use the term 'illegal migrant' yet those two above are unsure of what an 'illegal migrant' actually is.
I can only assume that they put two words together to make a compound word which they will use persistently to intentionally demonise asylum seekers, but don't understand the meaning of that compound word.

I know it's a daft question, but, does anyone else use words that they are unable to explain the meaning?
I can think of a few, Spineless and his use of the word 'communist' for one. I have asked him several questions about his understanding of the word 'communist' but so far I've had absolutely no response. but he carries on using the word, throwing it around like confetti, without being able to explain its meaning.

Then there's the word 'terrorist' which is totally subjective of one's viewpoint whether it's being used correctly.

What is a King?

 

[King Billy]

As one of the narrowest and most well-known international waterways lacking dangerous currents, the Channel has been the first objective of numerous innovative sea, air, and human powered crossing technologies.

Currents in the English Channel can be highly dangerous. They are fast, unpredictable, and often exceed speeds of 6 km/h (or 4 mph). These severe conditions are driven by strong tidal flows and heavy storms from the North Atlantic.

Navigating the English Channel in an overloaded inflatable is extremely dangerous. These boats lack solid hulls, making them prone to capsizing. Overcrowding drastically reduces buoyancy, reduces the freeboard (distance from the water to the top of the boat), and causes the vessel to take on water. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Which brings me on to the English Channel which offers a not dissimilar cocktail of ingredients. I reckon I have made this crossing about 20 times, generally in summer, sometimes in winter. Quite frankly, it always throws up some surprise however well prepared you are. So here are a few tips garnered from many years of making the trip:The high volume of maritime traffic, harsh winds, and strong tidal currents create massive navigational hazards. Large cargo ships traversing the strait make the crossing exceptionally hazardous for unseaworthy or overloaded craft.

No Steering Control: Cramming too much weight into an inflatable raft submerges the sides. This leaves the boat entirely at the mercy of strong ocean currents and heavy swells.

 

[motorbiking]

Combined with other effects, such as weather, other traffic, change in launching sites, etc it will make a difference.

combining things that don't make a difference with things that make a difference you mean.

You're as clueless as boyo.

 

[King Billy]

What is a King?

In what context?
It is usually the noun assigned to a male sovereign.
But it could be used figuratively, as in the King of the jungle.
It could be a surname.
It could be the common name of a reptile.
It could be a substituted word in place of an offensive word, such as 'king 'ell.
What context were you thinking of?

Now tell us what an illegal migrant is.

 

[King Billy]

combining things that don't make a difference with things that make a difference you mean.

Such as?

The English Channel crossing is deadly due to heavily packed inflatable boats, freezing water temperatures, and sudden rough waves. These factors are complicated by the world's busiest shipping lanes, panicked launches from the shore, and poor engine quality. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

Maritime and Natural Dangers

• • Busiest shipping lane: Over 500 massive commercial ships navigate this narrow waterway daily. Small boats are hard to see and easily swamped by the large wakes of cargo ships. [1, 2, 3]
  • Cold water: The water is extremely cold year-round. Even in summer, immersion causes rapid hypothermia (dangerously low body temperature). [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • Strong currents: The narrow Dover Strait produces unpredictable, fast-moving tides and currents that can pull small boats off course. [1, 2]
  • Severe weather: High winds and sudden storms create dangerous waves. Smugglers sometimes risk bad weather to avoid police. [1, 2]

 

[motorbiking]

I think AI is more reliable than a so-called expert who uses his expertise to flatly deny what other experts assert.

Boyo's links talk about narrow channels, not the English Channel, which is 20 miles "narrow". There is nothing unpredictable about the tides in the English Channel, they aren't particularly strong either (dover to calais). The tide in the dover strait will not affect the steering of a vessel. the CoG is affected but not the steering. If you set off half-way through one tide, you will find that the tides cancel each other out and your course to steer wont be changed much.

None of the factors you list change the ability for the illegals to cross from one year to the next. They just wait for a good day to cross.

Feel free to reference your experts.

 

[King Billy]

from one year to the next. They just wait for a good day to cross.

Exactly, the number of good days varies unpredictably. Some years there are more, some years less.

The number of favourable days—often called "red days" by officials—varies significantly from year to year. These are days when wind speed, wave height, and rainfall create conditions suitable for small boat crossings.

Weather Data and Variations
The number of good weather days shifts annually and seasonally. [1]

• • Annual shifts: Home Office data showed 190 red days in the 12 months up to April 2025, which was a record high and an 80% increase from the prior year.
  • Seasonal shifts: Historically, the peak season for these crossings is the late summer, as calmer weather prevails. [1, 2]

Feel free to reference your experts.

I already have referenced multiple experts, posted them on here, and I find them consistent and reliable.
Whereas your clams don't hold water, 'scuse the pun.

 

[motorbiking]

Exactly, the number of good days varies unpredictably. Some years there are more, some years less.

This affects the crossings from one day to the next and one month to the next. We have seen that when there are weather factors (not tide, not shipping, etc) the illegals cluster their crossing on the next good (red) day. as backed up by your link.

The only thing that affects how many illegals can cross from one year to the next, is the supply and the demand.

I already have referenced multiple experts, posted them on here, and I find them consistent and reliable.
Whereas your clams don't hold water, 'scuse the pun.

what have I claimed that you think is incorrect?

 

[Koolpc]

I love these forums. Lol....

 

[King Billy]

This affects the crossings from one day to the next and one month to the next. We have seen that when there are weather factors (not tide, not shipping, etc) the illegals cluster their crossing on the next good day.

The only thing that affects how many illegals can cross from one year to the next, is the supply and the demand.

Weather Data and Variations
The number of good weather days shifts annually and seasonally. [1]

• • Annual shifts: Home Office data showed 190 red days in the 12 months up to April 2025, which was a record high and an 80% increase from the prior year.
  • Seasonal shifts: Historically, the peak season for these crossings is the late summer, as calmer weather prevails. [1, 2]

what have I claimed that you think is incorrect?

That factors do not change year to year. (referring only to this thread)

Here's a few more examples of your claim:

Not from one year to the next and it makes little difference

Each year the tides are broadly the same as the previous year. Nothing much changes about the orbit of the sun and the moon, from one year to the next that would make any significant impact on navigation. The tides do not fall at the same time every day, because the cycle is just under 6.5 hours.

Tides affect currents correct - its simple gravity the water must move from one place to the other based on the pull of the moon and the sun. Atmospheric pressure has a negligible impact on navigation. A tide being 10cm higher makes f**all difference to a plan.

Tides have no impact on the number of people who choose to cross each year.

I suspect there are several more instances of you claiming that conditions do not change year to year, and that the varying conditions do not affect the number of boat crossings annually.

 

[Koolpc]

 

[King Billy]

I love these forums. Lol....

You should try a positive contribution occasionally.
You might find the forum even more rewarding.

View attachment 418411
Noseall loves his PPE. He wears it everywhere! He loves to wear it on the French beaches where he loads up the dinghies with those wanting to stretch the RNLI and their resources!

Woof!