Covid Death Stats: Looking Like Us Doubters May Be Right

[EFLImpudence]

Yes, so?

Presumably the overflow and leaky plug represent recoveries and deaths.


The intention was to stop the bath overflowing which succeeded.

 

[denso13]

Yes, so?

So lockdowns demonstrably lowered the overall number of deaths in the UK.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I think Notch7's analogy was to illustrate how the normal channels of dealing with unprecedented demand can be overwhelmed, leading to chaos.
So the lockdown was similar to reducing the flow of water into the bath.

 

[EFLImpudence]

So lockdowns demonstrably lowered the overall number of deaths in the UK.

That is the debatable part.

However, I repeat, the intention of the first lockdown was to flatten the curve; that is to reduce the peak but extend the time period.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

However, I repeat, the intention of the first lockdown was to flatten the curve; that is to reduce the peak but extend the time period.

Reduce the peak, reduce pressure on the NHS and give time to develop measures to deal with (vaccine), as a more permanent fix.

 

[denso13]

However, I repeat, the intention of the first lockdown was to flatten the curve; that is to reduce the peak but extend the time period.

I've already agreed with that. However, reducing the peak lowered deaths until the vaccines became available, therefore less deaths overall.

 

[EFLImpudence]

However, reducing the peak lowered deaths until the vaccines became available, therefore less deaths overall.

If you think that is what 'flattening the curve' means then why did they not just call it 'reducing the number of cases'?

It's not actually to do with deaths, is it? It was to limit the number in hospital at at any one time.

 

[EddieM]

Some posters here appear to be trying to argue that lockdowns have had little to no effect. You can't possibly ever prove what the infection / death rate might have been without it. The best you can do is estimate it, which is always going to be questionable.

 

[denso13]

It's not actually to do with deaths, is it?

I thought that's what your argument was, that lockdowns have no effect on the overall numbers.

It was to limit the number in hospital at at any one time.

I've agreed with that more than once now, but it also prevented more hospitalisations/deaths overall now we are in the vaccination stage.

 

[EFLImpudence]

Some posters here appear to be trying to argue that lockdowns have had little to no effect. You can't possibly ever prove what the infection / death rate might have been without it. The best you can do is estimate it, which is always going to be questionable.

...and vice versa.

 

[EddieM]

...and vice versa.

Maybe but there's plenty of historical data that shows that effectively isolating people slows / stops the spread of a disease.

 

[denso13]

...and vice versa.

Nonsense, here is another paper, https://www.pnas.org/content/117/19/10484

"We draw scenarios of different containment measures and their impact. Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%). Averted hospitalizations are measured by running scenarios obtained by selectively relaxing the imposed restrictions and total about 200,000 individuals (as of March 25, 2020). Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, we conclude that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures."

 

[JohnD]

If you think that is what 'flattening the curve' means then why did they not just call it 'reducing the number of cases'?

It's not actually to do with deaths, is it? It was to limit the number in hospital at at any one time.

"Flattening the curve" so that hospitals, undertakers and crematoria are not overwhelmed, and electricity, water, sewers and food shops continue to work, prevents the breakdown of society, which would be enormously damaging in loss of life and destruction of property and democratic institutions.

 

[EFLImpudence]

I thought that's what your argument was, that lockdowns have no effect on the overall numbers.

No one knows.

I've agreed with that more than once now, but it also prevented more hospitalisations/deaths overall

Did it?
https://www.timescolonist.com/opini...ck-how-to-flatten-the-other-curves-1.24140255

"The lower but longer curve going off to the right shows what happens if we manage the pandemic well and spread out the impact of the disease over a longer period of time. We may get as many cases overall — although fewer, ideally — but by spreading out the impact, we can remain within the health-care system’s capacity and avoid a crisis."

now we are in the vaccination stage.

The vaccine was irrelevant before it was introduced - i.e. the time of the first lockdown.

 

[SirGalahad]

India is an example of hubris and not flattening the curve.

The breakdown of society is not pleasant.