Does anybody think a 2nd spike is likely

[Notch7]

It seems likely, how bad it will be, Ive no idea.

note: I accept the economy has to get going again, but a serious spike would force tighter lockdown measures.

 

[bernardgreen]

I am sure there will be a second spike, hopefully a small one but that depends on what percentage of people have acquired some level of immunity to the virus.

 

[IT Minion]

Yes there will, based on history it could even be worse than the first. All the studies so far imply the level of herd immunity is negligible at the moment.

 

[pete50]

Of course there will be a second spike. We just have to live with it, or not as the case may. Nobody is immortal cept Q and a jelly fish.

 

[Munroast]

If any country will get a severe second spike then it will be the UK, we seem utterly clueless or at least our government is. I'm thinking these viruses do not spread easily during summer months so I am thinking the Autumn will be the danger time as we will have let our guard down fully by then.

Also by autumn, the full realisation of the economic mess will be on our doorstep, we're heading into chaos. And then we will have brexit led by that genius boris.

we're doomed

 

[EddieM]

Second spike? round here our R number is reportedly 1.6

 

[Ryler]

reportedly 1.6

Pretty low then.

 

[EddieM]

Pretty low then.

Not really at 1.6 if 1 person infects 1.6 people per day, then after 30 days over 1 million have been infected.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

How do you work out the number of steps, and how the virus progresses with the R number set as X?
Is it simply X²?

In which case
1.6² > 2.56 > 6.55 > 42.94 > 1,844 > 3,402,823

 

[Brigadier]

Not really at 1.6 if 1 person infects 1.6 people per day, then after 30 days over 1 million have been infected.

Only works if there are a million contacts to infect.

 

[Notch7]

Second spike? round here our R number is reportedly 1.6

Brighton 1.68

 

[EddieM]

Only works if there are a million contacts to infect.

Of course, but any thing over 1 means the rate is increasing R=2 is exponential.

 

[EddieM]

How do you work out the number of steps, and how the virus progresses with the R number set as X?
Is it simply X²?

In which case
1.6² > 2.56 > 6.55 > 42.94 > 1,844 > 3,402,823

1xR^x + 1xR^(x-1) corrected, x = days.

 

[sodthisforfun]

Only works if there are a million contacts to infect.

Which is why we stayed at home?!

I think there may be a second wave - I hope not though. 2 reasons, was reading an article last night that so many people have the disease and show no symptoms (so very difficult to control) and because people in the UK have now ignored lockdown going by the pictures around in tourist/beauty spots.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1xR^x

Is that 1 times R, to the power of x (which is R)?

that'd be 1.6 to the power of 1.6.

Sorry, me no understand.