Does anybody think a 2nd spike is likely

[EddieM]

Is that 1 times R, to the power of x (which is R)?

that'd be 1.6 to the power of 1.6.

Sorry, me no understand.

x = days.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I'm still confused.
Why is there 1 times days "1x"? why not just days "x"?

Then it would be

xR^x + xR^(x-1) (x=days)

or days times (R, to the power of days), plus, days times (R, to the power of (days - 1))

I tried looking it up on internet:
https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teachingdocs/Jones-on-R0.pdf
Then I decided I'm not a mathematician.

Edit: 1.6 (R) to the power of 30 (days) = 1,329,227.99578
If we then multiply that by 30 (days), just for the first half of the equation, we get nearly 40,000,000.
Or xR^x or 30 X 1.6^30 = 40,000,000

 

[EddieM]

Ok is simpler to express it as

Edited, sod it... it's a lot anyway!

 

[IT Minion]

It's not days as I understand it. The R value is the number of people you'll infect whilst you have the disease. Which means on average you'll infect 1.6 people spread over the infectious period of around 2 weeks. We saw that during the early phases where we were doubling every few weeks. (R=2).

It's an average though, some super spreaders have infected a thousand others. Many won't infect anyone.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

OK, it is simpler, but 1.6 ^31 = 2,126,764.79326
-1 = 2,126,763

https://www.google.com/search?q=1.6...me..69i57j6.7931j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

It's an average though, some super spreaders have infected a thousand others. Many won't infect anyone.

Understood.

 

[IT Minion]

1xR^x + 1xR^(x-1) corrected, x = days.

This is correct, except as mentioned it's roughly 2 weeks rather than days.

It's also important that we remember we're not starting from one person. We've got in the region of 100,000 active infections at the moment. So it'd be100,000 X R^(number of time periods)

 

[Brigadier]

It's an average though, some super spreaders have infected a thousand others. Many won't infect anyone.

Agreed.
I'm sure first reports of that S Korean second outbreak (when the bars and clubs reopened, a couple of weeks ago) were that one guy had infected almost 1500 people

What was he doing, licking them?

 

[IT Minion]

Agreed.
I'm sure first reports of that S Korean second outbreak (when the bars and clubs reopened, a couple of weeks ago) were that one guy had infected almost 1500 people

What was he doing, licking them?

I hadn't heard it was that many, in the first outbreak one person infected 1,200. She went to church and had a hotel breakfast buffet, among other things.

 

[Brigadier]

I hadn't heard it was that many, in the first outbreak one person infected 1,200. She went to church and had a hotel breakfast buffet, among other things.

In all fairness, 1200 vs 1500 is almost not worth arguing about.

 

[EddieM]

Anyway, back to the original title, probably

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/lon...ge-floyd-black-lives-matter-a4455596.html?amp

Sigh.

 

[ReganAndCarter]

If any country will get a severe second spike then it will be the UK, we seem utterly clueless or at least our government is. I'm thinking these viruses do not spread easily during summer months so I am thinking the Autumn will be the danger time as we will have let our guard down fully by then.

Also by autumn, the full realisation of the economic mess will be on our doorstep, we're heading into chaos. And then we will have brexit led by that genius boris.

we're doomed

Some of the blame lies with the government, but a lot of the problem is dumb Brits. Sun comes out, and as usual they take all leave of their senses. Carry on as if there's no pandemic. Problem is, parts of the country seem to be ungovernable where people do what they want. In addition there are autonimous communities within the country doing their own thing. Not like WW2 when everyone had a common purpose and pulled together.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Some of the blame lies with the government, but a lot of the problem is dumb Brits. Sun comes out, and as usual they take all leave of their senses. Carry on as if there's no pandemic. Problem is, parts of the country seem to be ungovernable where people do what they want.

If you're having a moan about Cummings, why not post in the appropriate discussion.

 

[ReganAndCarter]

If you're having a moan about Cummings, why not post in the appropriate discussion.

Wasn't, but equally could apply to him. Just another selfish idiot.

 

[Munroast]

Some of the blame lies with the government, but a lot of the problem is dumb Brits. Sun comes out, and as usual they take all leave of their senses. Carry on as if there's no pandemic. Problem is, parts of the country seem to be ungovernable where people do what they want. In addition there are autonimous communities within the country doing their own thing. Not like WW2 when everyone had a common purpose and pulled together.

we're a do what we want nation in many respects, great that we feel free enough in our society do be like this, but it certainly has its downsides with this virus. China can easily close part of their country down and get on top of the virus, but then again I would hate their civil freedoms.