Does anybody think a 2nd spike is likely

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

You've got some front bringing up PPE.
You live in France, tell us about the French Govt burning 1.7 billion face masks in the lead up to the pandemic, to reduce costs. No wonder they tried to hijack two Bitish lorries containing PPE.

I think you've manage to twist that further than Daily Mail.
But from the Daily Mail:

" a billion face masks were burned ahead of the crisis.​

It has emerged that masks believed to be too old for use were destroyed
Just 117 million masks remained when the pandemic began to unfold across France"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-France-burned-BILLION-masks-coronavirus.html
​

Just so we can get the right angle on the story. The quartermaster (whoever it was) decided that the masks were past their use by date, (they did date from 2011) so were destroyed, prior to 2020.

" By 2020, there were just 117 million masks left… https://order-order.com/2020/05/29/...lion-face-masks-in-the-run-up-to-coronavirus/​

Then the Covid 19 pandemic struck.

Well that quartermaster should be hung drawn and quartered for not foreseeing that a pandemic was on its way.

The hijacking of the lorries was another bit of fake news.

"German government on Wednesday banned the export of medical protective equipment such as goggles, respiratory masks, protective suits and gloves. France has made a similar order. " https://www.thelocal.com/20200309/germany-blocks-protective-masks-headed-for-switzerland

"However another source told the newspaper: 'Both incidents were dealt with relatively quickly.
'There is a clear understanding between countries that only a united approach will tackle the public health emergency all countries face."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-filled-130-000-face-masks-bound-Britain.html
​

I'm pretty sure that the UK government would have also slapped a ban on export of PPE, if they had any to export.

 

[fillyboy]

Well that quartermaster should be hung drawn and quartered for not foreseeing that a pandemic was on its way.

You obviously think not, and I agree, so why slate the UK quartermaster?

 

[ajohn]

Several virologists aren't so interested in the R number now it's low. Get over 1 and I would guess not just slightly over and they will be interested.

They are considering people carrying the virus now from sampling the population in the stockbroker belt. That says there is a 1 in 400 chance of some one carrying the virus so can infect others. There is a statistical limit on that - pass, forgot number but sub 1 in 300?

Worst aspect of that in some ways is likely to be touching something one of those has contaminated and picking it up. No problem we all wash our hands. They have tested a mask to limit distance spread after a fashion but only the home made one mentioned. Talking can spread it, not mentioned much, singing has been mentioned now. In principle breathing can too.

Personally I feel they have pushed the idea of coughs and sneezes spreading it far too much

They have recently said that most activity is in the north and midlands - more at work ??

 

[ajohn]

Just so we can get the right angle on the story. The quartermaster (whoever it was) decided that the masks were past their use by date, (they did date from 2011)

Are you sure they didn't give some to the UK who then redated them? Personally I wasn't too fussed about uk masks being redated. They would still filter and as for hospital use sterile and packed as such.

 

[EddieM]

I'm still confused.
Why is there 1 times days "1x"? why not just days "x"?

Then it would be

xR^x + xR^(x-1) (x=days)

or days times (R, to the power of days), plus, days times (R, to the power of (days - 1))

I tried looking it up on internet:
https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teachingdocs/Jones-on-R0.pdf
Then I decided I'm not a mathematician.

Edit: 1.6 (R) to the power of 30 (days) = 1,329,227.99578
If we then multiply that by 30 (days), just for the first half of the equation, we get nearly 40,000,000.
Or xR^x or 30 X 1.6^30 = 40,000,000

The 1 simply assumes (obs not the case in reality) that you start from 1 infected person.

 

[fillyboy]

Err, no

The hijacking of the lorries was another bit of fake news.

no it wasn't, and you copying one sentence from the Mail article doesn't make it so. Slag off this country as much as you want but maybe you should take a closer look at your adopted country.

French border guards impound trucks filled with 130,000 face masks bound for Britain for NHS workers battling coronavirus

• After realising what was on board, border guards in France held the truck there
• Emmanuel Macron's promised to 'requisition' face masks for the French crisis
• A truck with hand sanitiser was delayed by authorities on way to UK day before

French border guards impounded trucks filled with 130,000 face masks bound for the UK leading to hurried negotiations between the British and French governments.

The masks were meant for brave NHS workers battling coronavirus across the country.

After realising what was on board, border guards in France held the truck in the wake of President Emmanuel Macron's promise to 'requisition' face masks for the French crisis, reported The Sun.

This came just a day after another truck bound for the UK, this time stocked with hand sanitiser, was delayed by authorities on the other side of the Channel.

Officials in the UK were swiftly made aware of both incidents.

A government source told The Sun: 'On Tuesday night, French authorities stopped the hand sanitiser and confiscated the lot. On Wednesday night, it was lorries full of FFP3 face masks to protect staff.'

However another source told the newspaper: 'Both incidents were dealt with relatively quickly.

'There is a clear understanding between countries that only a united approach will tackle the public health emergency all countries face.

'It appears to have been a misunderstanding, we're confident it won't happen again '.

On March 3 President Macron posted on Twitter that the French authorities would 'requisition all stocks and the production of masks'.

Brexiteer Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader told the Sun said: 'This shows you all you need to know about European co-operation.

'Europe is in lockdown and each nation has been left to their own devices.'

 

[ajohn]

The main use of R seems to be to determine the approx infection rate of diseases. That can only really be determined when it's spreading naturally. I suppose it could also be used when circumstances change and infections drop. When this was started they were mostly interested in doubling time. R comes into modelling. Technical web posters probably caused most use of R. Should I think be R0 anyway. All sorts of ways of calculating it.

 

[EddieM]

Some don't think testing has played that much of a part?

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2...rmany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

"For example, it looks as if the low German fatality rate is not due to their superior testing capacity, but rather to the fact that the average German is less likely to get infected and die than the average Brit. Why? There are various possible explanations, but one that looks increasingly likely is that Germany has more immunological “dark matter”

Confess I don't know what he means really.

 

[Bodd]

That's flu. CV isn't flu.

Are we at cross purposes? Are you talking about the Citroën CV

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

You obviously think not, and I agree, so why slate the UK quartermaster?

The UK government's farce over PPE is just one of a long list of incompetence.

Check out the number of new cases, for UK and France, the total number of deaths, the number of new deaths. and total cases.
Also compare the number of deaths per 1,000,000.
France is coming out of confinement, with holiday resorts opening in 3 weeks. Journeys are unrestricted as from next Tuesday.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Err, no


no it wasn't, and you copying one sentence from the Mail article doesn't make it so. Slag off this country as much as you want but maybe you should take a closer look at your adopted country.

French border guards impound trucks filled with 130,000 face masks bound for Britain for NHS workers battling coronavirus

• After realising what was on board, border guards in France held the truck there
• Emmanuel Macron's promised to 'requisition' face masks for the French crisis
• A truck with hand sanitiser was delayed by authorities on way to UK day before

French border guards impounded trucks filled with 130,000 face masks bound for the UK leading to hurried negotiations between the British and French governments.

The masks were meant for brave NHS workers battling coronavirus across the country.

After realising what was on board, border guards in France held the truck in the wake of President Emmanuel Macron's promise to 'requisition' face masks for the French crisis, reported The Sun.

This came just a day after another truck bound for the UK, this time stocked with hand sanitiser, was delayed by authorities on the other side of the Channel.

Officials in the UK were swiftly made aware of both incidents.

A government source told The Sun: 'On Tuesday night, French authorities stopped the hand sanitiser and confiscated the lot. On Wednesday night, it was lorries full of FFP3 face masks to protect staff.'

However another source told the newspaper: 'Both incidents were dealt with relatively quickly.

'There is a clear understanding between countries that only a united approach will tackle the public health emergency all countries face.

'It appears to have been a misunderstanding, we're confident it won't happen again '.

On March 3 President Macron posted on Twitter that the French authorities would 'requisition all stocks and the production of masks'.

Brexiteer Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader told the Sun said: 'This shows you all you need to know about European co-operation.

'Europe is in lockdown and each nation has been left to their own devices.'

The lorry was impounded (temporarily) by customs officers, in conformity with the government bans on export.
The ban was swiftly lifted in a coordinated EU wide cooperative policy on PPE.
It wasn't hijacked. It was legally detained.

As said, I'm sure UK would have banned the export of PPE, if they had any to export.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Are you sure they didn't give some to the UK who then redated them?

Perhaps they offered UK the ones that they had burnt.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

. Slag off this country as much as you want'

I think you are imagining things now.
Where have I slagged off the UK?

This government, yes absolutely.
But don't invent arguments. It demonstrates the flimsiness of your position.

 

[ajohn]

Some don't think testing has played that much of a part?

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2...rmany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

"For example, it looks as if the low German fatality rate is not due to their superior testing capacity, but rather to the fact that the average German is less likely to get infected and die than the average Brit. Why? There are various possible explanations, but one that looks increasingly likely is that Germany has more immunological “dark matter”

Confess I don't know what he means really.

Beware of academic bullshite. It's going to take one hell of a time to find what the total overall death numbers are. Germany may have had way more older people keeping out of it than the uk. That alone could make a huge difference.

 

[fillyboy]

The lorry was impounded (temporarily) by customs officers, in conformity with the government bans on export.

On March 3rd Macron posted on twitter that all stocks of PPE would be requisitioned.

The ban was swiftly lifted in a coordinated EU wide cooperative policy on PPE.

And a diplomatic row.

It wasn't hijacked. It was legally detained.

Nice country France, How're the riots going?