True, but those extras are more or less useless for reinfection stats.
Does anybody think a 2nd spike is likely
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The "unknowns" are self - evidently useless for any stats, let alone reinfection stats.
But, while they are no good for stats, it doesn't mean the cases do not exist.
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D
Deleted2797112
Rather, I prefer not to have an evidenced source mangled beyond recognition by someone who *thinks* they understand science and then re-posted in a bastardised version. It's a serious subject and it deserves serious attention.
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Deleted2797112
I'd hazard a guess that it's probably too early to look at that yet. There's been a follow-up study in South Korea that found nearly 300 patients who tested negative on leaving hospital then tested positive a few weeks later. The explanation seems to be that the follow-up test is detecting dead virus fragments and that these people were not infectious second time round. There's still much that's not known about this disease.
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030#
I mentioned that 400 odd were reported in one source. I discounted it because insufficient information was given. Any sort of immunity doesn't mean that the virus wont be present or that some one can't pick it up again. It just means that the immune system should respond more quickly. There has also been a report that Korea withdrew one person that that had caught it twice and put it down to testing. Think there was a similar claim from Japan.
I've come across a couple of comments. No more than comments/talk. One as you mention dead virus and the other it's normal for the virus to be around for several weeks after an infection has cleared up. There isn't much clear info about. One interesting fact is collecting serum from people who have had it. They want it ~ 1month after the infection has cleared up.
https://www.nhsbt.nhs.uk/covid-19-research/plasma-programme/
States >28 days.
The gov have really been playing with numbers of tests. Counting all tests they do. This includes swabs, still a lot within the nhs, some surveying, serological tests for a survey and maybe yet another using an antibody test developed by Roche and another but just within the NHS. Mentioned in the brief, seems it needs a phlebotomist.
Always wondered how that was spelled, it's not fleabologist. The BBC news broke down the total tests by numbers of each. Didn't have pen and paper but should be on this pagehttps://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#history
What can be said at the moment is that the body does produce antibodies - good job as people wouldn't recover. What's not known is how long they last, infection and results if that happens. They seem to think Pillar 4 will produce useful results soon.
Talk about confusion. Testing strategy, updated now.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...121/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-strategy.pdf
Thanks @ceres your link gives a lot more on the mention of 400 odd reinfections I found earlier. It seems to have hit "the news" 19th May so odd no one has asked about it during the brief. Not odd really given the types of questions they like to ask. Anyway the conclusions seem to relate to not being able to culture the virus so assumed dead and no definite cases of re infected passing it on. People can end up with symptoms after being treated. It seems sore throats and coughing can come back. People are discharged on the basis of negative tests. Need to talk to someone in the UK, they may be told to isolate for a while. Then buried in the web cases of people shedding the virus for 51 days and mention of age effects again.
I have read that Korea managed with 10 going to 20k tests a day but also speeded it up. The speed up may just relate to checking entries. Figures suggest 0.02% of their population was infected. We are over 10 times that. There phone app seems to use actual location, kept for a rolling 21 days.
Again from reading Singapore didn't really lock down. They had people working in shifts, tracking and web forms to report self isolation. Phone tracking in the same way as we may get.
All countries seem to fair better as they get to grips with it sooner. Some populations would probably be more scared of it from previous experience.
My son dug out some download info on phone apps. Take up may be lower than even 60%. Personally as in more of a mess I hope we do a lot better. It isn't going to go away. It hasn't even in China, close though.
C4 has interviewed some one associated with the Oxford vaccine. Under pressure he would mention 50/50 chance. Main point he made was the speed to get where they were. This seems to be the one under human trials. Preparations to produce lots of doses are supposed to be ongoing but it turns out that the entire tracking and monitoring system is still being "built" trackers yes. Other part ongoing. Pundits are saying tracking will reduce infections by 10 to 15%. I still feel the missing part is masks in buildings etc when surfaces can be contaminated that will be touched by others - as China finished up when they really relaxed lock down.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...121/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-strategy.pdf
Thanks @ceres your link gives a lot more on the mention of 400 odd reinfections I found earlier. It seems to have hit "the news" 19th May so odd no one has asked about it during the brief. Not odd really given the types of questions they like to ask. Anyway the conclusions seem to relate to not being able to culture the virus so assumed dead and no definite cases of re infected passing it on. People can end up with symptoms after being treated. It seems sore throats and coughing can come back. People are discharged on the basis of negative tests. Need to talk to someone in the UK, they may be told to isolate for a while. Then buried in the web cases of people shedding the virus for 51 days and mention of age effects again.
I have read that Korea managed with 10 going to 20k tests a day but also speeded it up. The speed up may just relate to checking entries. Figures suggest 0.02% of their population was infected. We are over 10 times that. There phone app seems to use actual location, kept for a rolling 21 days.
Again from reading Singapore didn't really lock down. They had people working in shifts, tracking and web forms to report self isolation. Phone tracking in the same way as we may get.
All countries seem to fair better as they get to grips with it sooner. Some populations would probably be more scared of it from previous experience.
My son dug out some download info on phone apps. Take up may be lower than even 60%. Personally as in more of a mess I hope we do a lot better. It isn't going to go away. It hasn't even in China, close though.
C4 has interviewed some one associated with the Oxford vaccine. Under pressure he would mention 50/50 chance. Main point he made was the speed to get where they were. This seems to be the one under human trials. Preparations to produce lots of doses are supposed to be ongoing but it turns out that the entire tracking and monitoring system is still being "built" trackers yes. Other part ongoing. Pundits are saying tracking will reduce infections by 10 to 15%. I still feel the missing part is masks in buildings etc when surfaces can be contaminated that will be touched by others - as China finished up when they really relaxed lock down.
E
EddieM
2nd spike? Inevitable.
Thousands gather in Hyde Park to protest death of George Floyd
https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/v8yBXf
Thousands gather in Hyde Park to protest death of George Floyd
https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/v8yBXf
Very sneakily, without anyone noticing, Rishi Sunak changed the "we're following the science" phrase, to "we're engaging with the scientists" in his briefing a few days ago.
So in other words, they're now talking with scientists, but not following their advice.
So in other words, they're now talking with scientists, but not following their advice.
D
durhamplumber
It is R× R.....(how many days you like...).ie.If R is 1.6......after 3 days 1.6×1.6 ×1.6 =4.1.
Ris 2 ..3 days..8.(people infected)
Ris 1.6.....30 days =1.3 Million.!!!...
R is 2....30 days....=1073 Million!!!....
If R is 1.......after 30 days it must be 30 people infected....not 1 though.
Ris 2 ..3 days..8.(people infected)
Ris 1.6.....30 days =1.3 Million.!!!...
R is 2....30 days....=1073 Million!!!....
If R is 1.......after 30 days it must be 30 people infected....not 1 though.
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I think the 2nd wave will probably come in the Autumn. One thing we know about Covid. You only need a handful of imported cases to go unchecked and you have a lot of infections. People will be taking summer holidays and eventually the virus will find itself back in circulation among older people and we will be in round 2. I hope we have enough therapy to reduce the death toll. We won't be able to afford another lock down. Though right now they may as well cancel it for anyone under 65. Its making zero difference to the numbers.
Its unlikely that Germans, Greeks, Croatians, Serbians etc are genetically more immune, so they will end up infecting each other on their holidays. I'm surprised the US death toll is so low.
Its unlikely that Germans, Greeks, Croatians, Serbians etc are genetically more immune, so they will end up infecting each other on their holidays. I'm surprised the US death toll is so low.
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EddieM
Worse than that I'm afraid, I confess I don't know what the R time interval is. But on T=3 with an R of 1.6
you have
1.6+2.6×1.6+4.16×1.6 infections.
D
durhamplumber
Time interval is 24 hours.
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