Does anybody think a 2nd spike is likely

[Brigadier]

You're wrong. In every way.


Go read a book

Why? DP (has decided he) knows all he needs to.

 

[durhamplumber]

Go read a book[/QUOTE]

Why? DP (has decided he) knows all he needs to.

LMAO.

 

[motorbiking]

All ages spread it so the more there are the more older people who will get infected..

Not if the high risk groups are isolated.

If you look at the total cases/m vs deaths/m (and assuming they are true) there are huge differences between countries.

 

[ajohn]

No, it means that comparing the rate at which a disease spreads is more complex than just taking the R value and counting days.

To take an example HIV/AIDS has an R0 of 2-5. Which is why as team America says, everyone had aids by July 1981.

The next aspect is the doubling time going up. The time interval doesn't matter hence the fancy mathematics. I decided I didn't want a headache. One web page somewhere mentions several ways of calculating it. It's just gives an idea of how infectuous a disease is which also depends on how it spreads and circumstances.

 

[ajohn]

Not if the high risk groups are isolated

That might turn out to be for ever. I should isolate but unfortunately I need to eat and get exercise. My son lives with us and works. Currently just at home but........

I wont be the only one either.

 

[Brigadier]

"Does anybody think a 2nd spike is likely?"



Depends on what you consider a spike.
I suppose we'll have more idea, in the next few days, since the BML gatherings.

 

[IT Minion]

"Does anybody think a 2nd spike is likely?"



Depends on what you consider a spike.
I suppose we'll have more idea, in the next few days, since the BML gatherings.

Nah, it'll take a week or two before those trickle through to the various metrics. The current rises are all thanks to relaxed social distancing and failure to observe it as rigourously.

 

[Brigadier]

Nah, it'll take a week or two before those trickle through to the various metrics. The current rises are all thanks to relaxed social distancing and failure to observe it as rigourously.

I have very limited experience on the observance (or otherwise) of social distancing, as I have been nowhere other than the house and garden, a local aldi, and some nature trails, for over two months. Howeve , what I have seen around here seems to be OK observance.

Contrast this with some of the dads at football training today, who reckon where they live (Wolverhampton area), it's pretty much non-existent. People pushing past each other in the shops and supermarkets, and stopping and chatting, being cited examples .

 

[ajohn]

I'm in the Bournville /Kings Norton area of B'ham. I've noticed more people taking more notice of distancing over the last week - not walking past each other leaving no space for instance. We use local shops for some things and behaviour there has been mostly good, just odd ones in queues.

My wife went to the bank wearing a mask and had some odd looks from people. Also experienced a new cash machine scam. 2 blokes so people in the queue couldn't see what was going on. She had to go again and mentioned lots of people wearing masks. She was trying to sort a holiday cancellation refund.

May as well mention the scam. She wanted to check her balance. They waited until card and pin went in then pounced, placing a card across the keys saying you must cover your pin etc. The machine started counting. Odd she thought so stuck her hands on where the cash comes out and said your not having my money. Some one from the bank looking after the queue came over which ended it and some one else from the bank came out and photographed them. Some how they jammed the card in and made a £500 withdrawal. The bank cancelled it and got her card out of the machine.

 

[dontbelieveawordofit]

does it really matter whether there’s a 2nd spike or not. the less people on the planet the better surely.

 

[ajohn]

Contrast this with some of the dads at football training today, who reckon where they live (Wolverhampton area), it's pretty much non-existent. People pushing past each other in the shops and supermarkets, and stopping and chatting, being cited examples .

Have you ever been to Wolverhampton?

 

[Munroast]

"Does anybody think a 2nd spike is likely?"



Depends on what you consider a spike.
I suppose we'll have more idea, in the next few days, since the BML gatherings.

if there is no spike in two to three weeks time related to the blm protests, then I think we can safely lift lockdown - covid must have past.

 

[ajohn]

covid must have past

Highly unlikely going on other countries. More likely to be random outbreaks. Going on the WHO deciding that masks are a good idea it could mean that it is spread by people without symptoms even if they get them eventually. That makes it rather hard to get rid of it completely.

Most BAME protesters are wearing masks now which could help.

 

[JohnD]

I jumped out of an aircraft and plummetted towards the ground at fatal speed. Experts advised me to deploy my parachute. I gave this a lot of serious consideration, and eventually I did. The parachute has now slowed my descent to a safe velocity. I will therefore take the parachute off.

 

[JohnD]

A pandemic arose in this country and the infection spread widely, killing scores of thousands of people. Experts advised us to ban travel and meeting with other people, travelling on public transport, visting family and friends, going to Barnard Castle or going to work unless essential and we could not do it from home and were essential workers. We gave this a lot of serious consideration for several weeks, while the infection spread and deaths rose, and eventually we did. The lockdown has now slowed infections and deaths to tolerable levels. We will therefore end lockdown.