- 30 Sep 2011
- Reaction score
No, I didn't say that, but India is not yet a massive user of gas or oil in comparison to, say, Germany. A 9 fold increase when you are starting from a low initial figure is not really that substantial. All India has done is to reduce the volumes of tankered oil they take from the Gulf and Africa (partly becsuse Russia offered the oil at well below market prices) - if they wanted to import a lot more from Russia (i.e substantially increase their annual consumption, by say 40%) they are facing either the prospect of having to significantly increase the size of their port facilities or build pipelines across the highest mountain range in the world and half of RussiaSo, what you are saying is that the 9 fold increase in india's gas/oil (can't remember which) import is bunk because russia can't get the stuff to them?
Yes, well, you seem to have a lot of difficulties with a lot of things. Russia's problem is that the vast majority of its' gas and oil pipeline infrastructure is west of the Urals and in the main feeds through Europe. At present that network is still in use, if only partially (i.e. at reduced levels) but the day is coming when that method of exporting oil (in particular) and using mainly European port facilities to load tankers will come to an endDeals of similar and greater proportions with china would be the same. Essentially, what you are implying is that these countries are dealing in hot air. I find this hard to believe.
I think we are now getting into fantasy land. Before you can use any tankers you need a pipeline system to your ice-free ports, the storage facilities at those ports and the ports themselves to be capable of handling large tankers. Russia lacks these essential requisites. It also lacks a tanker fleet big enough to transport all of, say, China's requirements (it has the natural resources, but that's about all). Mini tankers? Well, they had better start building them soon if they want to export more. It is becoming ever more difficult to insure tankers carrying Russian oil, so they are going to have to start owning and insuring their own fleet. Should only take 10 years or so. Just remember, all this infrastructure we are talking about takes years to develop - much of it it can't be bought off the shelf, like you would an SDS drillIf super tankers don't fit, no law says mini tankers can't be used.
Whilst it would be feasible to build pipelines from the Russian Far East gas fields to China, laying pipeline over melting permafrost presents many challenges and isn't a wiggle your nose and it happens sort of job (as Samantha might say), and development of those fields is currently at a standstill following the withdrawal of Haliburton and others from gas and oil field exploration/development in Russia. In any case, even were those fields fully developed, they would still be too small to supply more than a part of China's current needs let alone its' projected usage
Now you really have gone off at the deep end. Ever heard of satellites? Even Google Earth has coverage of Russia and the massive scar left across a country by laying a pipeline is easily visible from space. So just how could the Russians build a network without the west knowing?For all you know, russia could have strategic secret underground pipelines crisscrossing the entire country. This could explain why the war in ukraine is done at an extra leisurely pace.
And "leisurely pace" is not how wars are ever conducted. The Russians made an absolute fist of trying to take Kyiv, and suffered ridiculously high casualties in men and materials for the poor gains they did make. Now in the second phase of the war they are making slow gains at the cost, again, of high casualties, and they are having to put older, dumber equipment into the front line to try and make good their losses. All this against a military, which on paper they should have crushed within a month. Financially the only thing keeping them afloat, especially in view of today's news thatbtheyvare now officially a defaulter nation, is the increase in the price of oil. When Europe finally cures its' addiction to Russian gas they will be up a creek with no money to build the infrastructure they need to deliver gas and oil to China and India. At that point their economy ges out the window for decades
But what has this all got to do with the price of sprouts?