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Good News on Vaccines and Delta Variant

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by jeds, 22 Jul 2021.

  1. sxturbo

    sxturbo

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    Would that not be because there is less people with symptoms?
     
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  3. EFLImpudence

    EFLImpudence

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    It says down 14.4% on the ONS board - from about a million a day - or is that not "PCR tests"?
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    If this site is not giving accurate numbers, then what can we do?



    Are you on Twitter again
     
  4. IT Minion

    IT Minion

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    No they aren't all PCR tests. If you click on 'all testing data' it breaks it down.

    There were 368,086 PCR tests out of 797,775 recorded/reported on 27-07-2021.

    The numbers of tests performed are probably highly accurate, but you do have to interpret them correctly.

    A week ago it was 405,005 and a week before that it was 408,957. So down 10%. What that could mean is worth a separate post because the simple assumption of a 10% drop in cases detected isn't necessarily true.
     
    Last edited: 28 Jul 2021
  5. IT Minion

    IT Minion

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    It could be, but it isn't certain. For example people might not be getting tested for symptoms as much.
     
  6. EFLImpudence

    EFLImpudence

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    Yes, so what is the point of Notch only quoting the PCR test figure?

    Ok. Does that mean the other tests are pointless?

    Again ok, but cases fell 36% this week.
     
  7. IT Minion

    IT Minion

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    I'm sure Notch can tell you.
    No.
    They did, but that 10% won't be a representative reduction. All the screening tests, for example at hospitals for staff and patients, will be continuing without any changes. So that 10% is going to be a much larger proportion of the testing for symptomatic cases.

    This isn't simple, the ONS weekly survey should be out on the 30th. That is going to be the only way we can tell if the case rate really is dropping before the hospitalisation numbers are available in a few weeks.
     
  8. jeds

    jeds

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    Some might say this could also be because the number of tests being carried out in the UK has been excessive and this just brings it back into balance.
     
  9. pcaouolte

    pcaouolte

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    School staff won't necessarily be testing twice a week during the summer holidays. That will bring the testing numbers down.
     
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  11. jeds

    jeds

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    It's a good point but do they test with PCR tests? I thought they mostly use lateral flow and then PCR if they get a positive.
     
  12. ChrisR

    ChrisR

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    I teach a little in a school as a volunteer, in retirement. Teachers probably all know that if you have a positive lateral flow test ( and they will have a dozen of those floating about) you're 99+% going to test positive on a PCR (Many of the false-positive LFTs are where a kid puts something on the test to fake it - they all know how). And, once you do a PCR and get a +ve it legally enforces you to do things. Most experience symptoms fading away in a couple of days, so jokes circulate about not wanting a PCR test in the holidays.
    PCR tests also report +ves on extremely small residual amounts of virus, and even "dead" virus, so there's a purpose to PCR testing the day before school starts again.
    TBH, teachers have been working their nuts off because of covid, so I wouldn't be surprised if they behaved "less correctly" than usual ;).

    -
    I'm still waiting for Beta, Kappa or Columbian, or something, variants to grow in number in the UK somewhere. Boosters are due for September which should cover Beta better than AZ Mk 1. Could be a race.
     
  13. Notch7

    Notch7

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    it came from here

     
  14. Notch7

    Notch7

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  15. Charlie George

    Charlie George

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    Last edited: 29 Jul 2021
  16. IT Minion

    IT Minion

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    They would be wrong. Positivity rates have been above 10% for a while now, that's well beyond the point where you're under testing.
     
  17. ellal

    ellal

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    Of course it could also mean that deaths with the 'virus' as opposed to from the 'virus' were over exaggerated previously :rolleyes:
     
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