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Good News on Vaccines and Delta Variant

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by jeds, 22 Jul 2021.

  1. JohnD

    JohnD

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    oddly,



    "Belfast has become the UK’s most Covid-infected city after the virus ripped through the most impoverished neighbourhoods of Northern Ireland’s capital in the weeks after large gatherings for the Euro 2020 football final and annual loyalist celebrations.

    Despite having tighter restrictions than in the rest of the country, Belfast’s weekly infection rate has topped 800 per 100,000 in recent days — the highest in the 16-month pandemic and about double the UK average.

    Some postcodes, including parts of the loyalist Shankill Road and republican Falls Road, have infection rates above 1,000 per 100,000, which puts them on a par with England’s north-east Covid epicentre."


    https://www.ft.com/content/c6b23a98-44f5-4338-ae74-0df0f6f8ad2b

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. EFLImpudence

    EFLImpudence

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    Ah, 'ripped through' - that old medical term.
     
  4. Charlie George

    Charlie George

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    The link to the football and the 12th celebrations can't be the reason for the large rise on the Falls surely,:confused: unless they nipped across to the Rex bar for a swifty.
     
    Last edited: 29 Jul 2021
  5. ajohn

    ajohn

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    There has been several ideas on why cases fell. It's a bit of a take your pick. One for instance is the presence of a previous football spike. Unique event that has repercussions that will tend to disappear in a couple of weeks. There may have been a Henman Hill spike as well. The people at the actual events shouldn't cause "problems" due to the checks needed to attend them.

    The important numbers now are deaths and hospitalisation numbers. News suggest ~6,600 being treated as of today. Deaths got close to a 100 on one day average is ~70. The forecasts they have mentioned are higher for both but it's still early days really.
     
  6. Notch7

    Notch7

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    That is on the ONS site, I’ve posted it before

    died from 119k
    died with 138k

    so not much difference
     
  7. JohnD

    JohnD

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    "UK ministers admit only 13% of key worker testing sites are operational
    Number of people ‘pinged’ by NHS Covid app in latest seven-day period hits new record

    The UK government on Thursday admitted that only 13 per cent of the 2,000 testing sites for key workers excluded from Covid self-isolation rules were operational, as the number of people “pinged” in the latest seven-day period by the NHS Covid-19 app in England and Wales hit a new record.

    According to the latest NHS data, 689,313 alerts were sent between July 15 and July 21 informing users that they had been in “close contact” with an individual infected with coronavirus, an increase from the 618,903 alerts sent in the week to July 14.

    The government advice is for them to self-isolate for 10 days. The new figures will intensify pressure on the government to increase the provision of testing sites for essential workers, who were excluded from the 10-day quarantine guidance last week over concerns the “pingdemic” was creating staff shortages in key areas including transport and food distribution.

    The scheme requires these essential staff to undergo daily testing instead of having to self isolate. The number of key sectors was expanded on Monday, with prison workers and tax office staff among those now included. The government said at the time it would ensure there would be 2,000 testing sites across England for key workers but Downing Street said on Thursday that just 260 were operational."

    https://www.ft.com/content/e487b570-6c32-4444-ab3f-6cacaa7d95b1
     
  8. jeds

    jeds

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    Except that can't be believed though Notch. I have personal experience of a death in 2020 - father of close friend. The hospital said he died of covid but several weeks later admitted that he was not tested so they couldn't be certain.
     
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  9. jeds

    jeds

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    They didn't say that. They said over testing overall, for which the positivity rate is about 2.4%.
     
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  11. JohnD

    JohnD

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    Did he show signs of the disease?

    I knew someone whose death certificate mentioned abdominal cancer, but had not been tested.
     
  12. JP_

    JP_

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    Almost every time you mention the virus you insist on saying "virus" with quotation marks, which suggests that you are trying to tell us all that you don't think it is a real virus.

    If you are not doing it for that purpose, it might be helpful to explain what you mean when you say 'virus'.

    For a different thread please, or provide a link. Mod
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 30 Jul 2021
  13. IT Minion

    IT Minion

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    Including lateral flow changes it completely. 10% positivity for PCR is far too high and a sign of under testing.

    2.5% including lateral flow is possibly worse as they're being used for screening, that implies a very high rate in the general population.

    The idea we're over testing is only valid if you no longer care who has Covid and were giving up on any attempt to isolate cases.
     
  14. IT Minion

    IT Minion

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    It is possible to diagnose Covid-19 without a test, although it may not make it into the stats.

    Fatal Covid-19 has very obvious damage to the lungs that you don't get with traditional pneumonia.

    So what you have here is quite possibly an example of under counting. As without a positive test it won't be recorded.
     
  15. pcaouolte

    pcaouolte

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    Also those who take a long time to die from Covid will not be included in the stats. Go to hospital, test positive for Covid, spend 6 weeks in hospital, then die. No positive test within 28 days of death so not included in the statistics.




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    Last edited by a moderator: 30 Jul 2021
  16. JohnD

    JohnD

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    Apart from the ones that show "covid on death certificate"

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

    Deaths within 28 days of positive test
    Total
    129,515



    Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate
    Total
    153,342
     
  17. jeds

    jeds

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    This was back in the early days, before the 'died with' thing. He hadn't been well for a while and hadn't had any contact outside the home for quite some time, which is why the family queried it.
     
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