In or out

[EFLImpudence]

Surely, all the "investors" (read gamblers) care about is making a profit.

If they think the pound will fall after the vote (whatever the result) then they will sell now contributing to further fall.
If they think the pound will rise after the vote (whatever the result) then the will buy now contributing to a rise.
Obviously they all cannot do the same so they must be split as to what the outcome will be as are we all.

It's a wonder that no one has pointed out that no one knows what will happen either way.

Choose:
Exit - fall
Exit - rise
Remain - fall
Remain - rise

Do you suspect the pound will rise after the referendum whether exit or remain and they'll all make lots of money to add to the lots of money they made when they sold at 1.40ish Euros?

 

[JohnD]

Surely, all the "investors" (read gamblers) care about is making a profit.

Are you a gambler?

If you had been lucky enough to save some money for your old age, or a new car, would you be comfortable at the possibility that devaluation might reduce the value of your savings/increase the price of the car by, say, 20%?

Leaving your money in cash would be your real gamble.

 

[Gerrydelasel]

Surely, all the "investors" (read gamblers) care about is making a profit.

If you had been lucky enough to save some money for your old age, or a new car, would you be comfortable at the possibility that devaluation might reduce the value of your savings/increase the price of the car by, say, 20%?
Leaving your money in cash would be your real gamble.

Only if you take the short-term view. The pound has been steadily falling for the last two years; no reason to suppose it wouldn't have fallen this year too, whether there was a referendum or not. Whatever effect the Referendum has is just another little bump lost in the background noise.

 

[Foxtrot Oscar]

It's all wind....

"Gold has risen by another 2% (+£16.70/ oz t) overnight, reaching its highest price in sterling since 2013 as we move towards ‘Brexit’ referendum day.

The increasing likeliness that Britain leaves the European Union has caused the value of the pound to sink in recent weeks, pushing the gold price skywards at a time when global safe-haven demand for the precious metal is high.

It has been said that sterling could lose up to 20% in a single day should a majority of Britons vote to leave the EU on 23rd June. Such an event, combined with increased demand for gold, could see its value jump considerably. "

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-news/2016/june/13/ftse-and-sterling-tumble-brexit-approaches/

It has been said??? Then you post an advert for an on line gold trader....Oh man! you have scraped all of the barrels and have now hit the bottom of a septic tank.

 

[JohnD]

Whatever effect the Referendum has is just another little bump lost in the background noise.

It must be very comforting for you to disregard the costs and risks of resigning from one of the worlds greatest markets.

 

[Gerrydelasel]

It must be very comforting for you to disregard the costs and risks of resigning from one of the worlds greatest markets.

Refreshingly comforting!

 

[JohnD]

Are you seriously telling me that in your guess, resigning from one of the worlds greatest markets will not cause severe damage?

 

[Gerrydelasel]

Are you seriously telling me that in your guess, resigning from one of the worlds greatest markets will not cause severe damage?

Yes it certainly would, which is why we're not voting to resign from the market. We're voting to resign only from our socio-political entrapment within that market. Let it make its own rules and we'll trade where it suits us.

Are you seriously telling me that in your guess, the red line on the graph is about to do something unexpected?

 

[EFLImpudence]

Surely, all the "investors" (read gamblers) care about is making a profit.

Are you a gambler?

Are you saying the market is not full of speculators manipulating it for their own benefit?

If you had been lucky enough to save some money for your old age, or a new car, would you be comfortable at the possibility that devaluation might reduce the value of your savings/increase the price of the car by, say, 20%?

Of course not but what has that got to do with it?

leaving your money in cash would be your real gamble.

Unless you bought better value cash for the time being.

 

[JohnD]

Are you saying the market is not full of speculators manipulating it for their own benefit?

I have not mentioned speculators.

I have however mentioned people holding cash which is now at severe risk of a fast and substantial loss of value.

 

[JohnD]

Are you seriously telling me that in your guess, resigning from one of the worlds greatest markets will not cause severe damage?

Yes it certainly would, which is why we're not voting to resign from the market.

That's not true. The Outists want to resign, scrapping our existing deals, and their leaders are crossing their fingers and saying that somehow, something will crop up, and in some undetermined way, we will find new markets to replace the ones we have lost. Quite where these markets are, and why we have never bothered trying to trade with them before, is never divulged. Somalia and Khazakstan, perhaps.

 

[Gerrydelasel]

That's not true. The Outists want to resign, scrapping our existing deals, and their leaders are crossing their fingers and saying that somehow, something will crop up, and in some undetermined way, we will find new markets to replace the ones we have lost.

Why do you think we would lose the existing markets? Trade continues, only the rules change.

Quite where these markets are, and why we have never bothered trying to trade with them before, is never divulged.

We do trade with them, but from behind the external tariff. Leave the EU and we're free from that tariff.

 

[JohnD]

This isn't news. The world's institutions and experts have been telling you for as long as you were willing to listen (perhaps that's why you haven't heard).

What does the IMF say? What does the Bank of England say? What do the Real Estate companies say? What do the international banks say? What does Britain's Financial Services sector (which is bigger than our entire Manufacturing) say, and why are Paris and Frankfurt stocking up on red carpets? What do Toyota, Nissan and Rolls-Royce say?


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/a75fc5ae-16c7-11e6-9d98-00386a18e39d.html

"Some analysts think the pound could lose as much as a third of its value against the dollar because of worries that leaving the EU will reduce capital inflows, increase the current account deficit and provoke a recession.

Michael Saunders, a Citigroup economist soon to join the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, wrote recently that a British exit would probably trigger a 15-20 per cent depreciation against Britain’s main trading partners.

This year has provided a taster of the Brexit effect. In the 12 months to March, the pound lost 11 per cent of its value against the dollar, while the price of hedging against a post-Brexit collapse soared. The currency has since made up a little less than half of that ground while hedging costs have eased. "

"Financial groups, retailers and construction companies are just some of the equities that could feel the heat, initially at least, if Britain votes to leave.

It could be a big blow for the City of London’s international activities, depriving UK-based companies of their “passport” to sell products to the rest of the EU. "

 

[Gerrydelasel]

What does the IMF say? What does the Bank of England say? What do the Real Estate companies say? What do the international banks say? What does Britain's Financial Services sector (which is bigger than our entire Manufacturing) say, and why are Paris and Frankfurt stocking up on red carpets? What do Toyota, Nissan and Rolls-Royce say?

The IMF is funded by the EU, those corporations profit directly from the EU, the finacial services sector is a concept not an organisation (and if we left it is likely that any loss of financial services -who everyone wanted to be fired anyway, after the recession- would be balanced by increasing Manufacturing, the opposite of when we joined the EU(EEC)). I don't know what the red carpet reference is about. That leaves you with the Bank of England who's govenor has stated "Our central forecast is for Remain - we always take government policy, that's the standard approach of the Bank of England" so no surprise their guesswork is biased towards Remain -the Government's official position.

What do JCB say? Or Dyson? Or Wetherspoons? Do Nissan have clairvoyant powers that these others don't? The financial markets are like the weather -you can't predict anything meaningful more than 48 hours ahead. You trust them this time because their random guesswork happens to coincide with your random guesswork in this instance.

 

[JohnD]

they recommended we join the Euro

You have been misled if you think they recommended that. Where did you get your story from?