Investment

[Dereekoo]

Decent enough graphs. What could possibly go wrong?

WWIII ?? Fortunately as flagged in previous posts this is a pension I have not yet accessed and have no need to (but will in April as any tax relief on contributions disappear due to hitting 75 ) and I can afford to be in higher risk investments and am quite happy to watch it to grow £2-3k a month , if things go pear shape kids get less inheritance

 

[Justin Passing]

WWIII ??

Yeah, that sort of bother.
OK 2-3k a week , say 125k a year, at the previous coupla years 20-30% returns, you need 100k.
But, some tech stocks are 5% down today.
You might get worried and pull into fixed interest at what, 80k?
At 5% you get 4k a year.
So there you are sat in your care home at 2k a week
You run out in week 41.

 

[motorbiking]

Decent enough graphs. What could possibly go wrong?
Bedtime reading:

Stock Market Crash Statistics (2026)

The five great US stock market crashes by the numbers: 1929, 1987, 2000, 2008, and 2020. How far the market fell, what caused each collapse, how long recovery took, the biggest single-day drops, and what history says about bear markets. Sourced to the Federal Reserve, Hartford Funds, and...

walnutinvest.com

Since I started messing with the SM, we're now for the first time at a point where, if everything went wrong, things could combine with vengeance.

We have :
Trump
Possibility of a rapid acceleration of hostilities;
Great hopes for technology - but it's getting to be financed by debt, not money.;
Increasing calls that this technology could be really, really bad. We've had several, sometimes comical outomes. Today someone hacked a shop's freezers and turned them all up. When does someone cry "enough"?;
Suppose it were an air traffic control system , and all the planes got diverted,,,, couple of crashes. They'd have to turn it off. No air transport, people or freight. Huge damage in the West, China takes advantage. Zero confidence in AI.;

That's extreme, but you can dream up several carastophic possibilities.. A drugs lab in China,,,, with a really nasty pathogen?
How far could it drop? Dunno mate . Models have been produced to answer that, without the compounding which could happen if Russia or China took advantage. They predict a drop of between 30 and 80%.
Sobering, innit?
It would take out many financial institutions too. There isn't enough in the FSCS coffers to honour many of those 130k guarantees,

Most of these things have applied useful brakes to a market which otherwise might overheat.

There are some parallels with the dot come boom and the AI boom. Currently AI cannot deliver value for money and that was similar t the “market share grabs without profit” of the dot com crash. The difference is there are far fewer players.

 

[Brigadier]

 

[Justin Passing]

Most of these things have applied useful brakes to a market which otherwise might overheat.

There are some parallels with the dot come boom and the AI boom. Currently AI cannot deliver value for money and that was similar t the “market share grabs without profit” of the dot com crash. The difference is there are far fewer players.

It's different in several aspects - again AI will list them out efficiently.
If AI has a disaster or two such that it's seen as toxic, who knows where that goes?