No one could have predicted it.
But schools are one of the areas where accepting the increased R might be the right thing imo. However we didn't reduce the R in other areas by shutting pubs etc. to compensate.
The swedes used Fergusons model to show what would happen in Sweden without a lockdown. Fergusons model predicted 40,000 deaths rising to 96,000 deaths by the end of June.
Actual deaths in Sweden. 5,927