Trade:
A lot of my information comes from a paper:
http://www.regents.ac.uk/media/1460304/SEE-Background-paper-final-Feb-2015.pdf
And I make no apology for that.
EU surpasses USA GDP. It is the largest single GDP in the world. Although the percentage of EU GDP to world GDP has fallen due to the increase in GDP in the BRIC countries, Brazil, India, Russia and China.
44% of our goods and services are exported to EU. 53% of our goods and service are from EU.
The value of non-EU trade with UK has been increasing. This is why the value of our goods exported to EU has fallen from 55% to 44%.
Trade with EU is split, 2/3 goods and 1/3 services. But goods trade is increasing at a slower rate than services.
Our EU balance of trade has been deteriorating at a faster rate than our surplus with non-EU countries has been increasing.
46% of assets held in UK belong to EU organisations and residents.
36 of the largest companies in UK, along with such notable organisation as TUC, CBI, Moody’s, Chief Constables and many more want us to remain in EU for prosperity of UK. Then there’s the countries that want or advise us to remain in EU: Switzerland, USA, China and of course the EU itself.
For the UK to continue its prosperity it must enter a trade agreement with EU. Anything else is political and commercial suicide.
But Switzerland for example, currently has 120 separate trade agreements with the EU. It took nine years to negotiate these agreements.
”The lengthy negotiations left Swiss businesses in a position of uncertainty for nearly a decade.”
“Thus, it is doubtful whether the EU would be willing to negotiate a similar pattern of agreements with the UK.”
“Switzerland is not within the EEA and does not participate in the free movement of services.”
“When Switzerland formally requested a renegotiation of its free movement treaty with the EU in July 2014, the EU refused.” http://www.regents.ac.uk/media/1460304/SEE-Background-paper-final-Feb-2015.pdf
Switzerland is a member of the EFTA (European Free Trade Agreement) of which Iceland, Norway and Lichtenstein are also members.
All four countries are implicitly including the ‘four freedoms’: Goods, services, capital and PEOPLE.
So membership of this group or any other trade agreement with EU must accept the ‘four freedoms.’
“In summary, EFTA-EEA Membership would mean that the UK would face more barriers, both tariff and regulatory, in trading with major partners, would still have to contribute substantially to EU funds, would have to accept free movement of people and would continue to have to abide by EU Single Market legislation (including that for financial services and the Working Time Directive) whilst having no effective say in its formulation.” http://www.regents.ac.uk/media/1460304/SEE-Background-paper-final-Feb-2015.pdf
Then there’s the NAFTA organisation (North American, Mexico and Canada)
“It must be quite unlikely that the members of NAFTA would welcome the UK as a new member. In each case their trade with the EU exceeds their trade with the UK alone. Leaving the EU to join a trade-bloc where the UK’s standing is far less well established would be economically dangerous. The UK is thousands of miles away from the NAFTA countries and economic models tend to show positive correlation for trade between comparable sizes of economies and distances between countries.” http://www.regents.ac.uk/media/1460304/SEE-Background-paper-final-Feb-2015.pdf
The Commonwealth possibility.
“The Commonwealth does not act collectively on behalf of its members in international trade talks, unlike the EU which uses its size to leverage better trade deals for its members. Commonwealth countries have shown no interest in it developing a major new role as a trading body and if it did, it would effectively be starting from scratch” http://www.regents.ac.uk/media/1460304/SEE-Background-paper-final-Feb-2015.pdf
Summary
“There are, in theory at least, a number of potential (preferential) trading alternatives to EU membership for the UK but there are serious doubts as to whether any of them would be on offer.”
“Furthermore, access to the Single Market has only been granted to the EFTA countries (and Switzerland) on the basis that they accept the EU’s free movement of persons rules; it is inconceivable that the EU would adopt a different approach for the UK given the number of EU citizens already working here.”
“Judged against the benchmark at the outset of this paper (unfettered access to the EU, as a member, to the Single Market and the ability to influence effectively the rules for that market), none of the suggested alternatives to EU membership for the UK reach this benchmark.”
http://www.regents.ac.uk/media/1460304/SEE-Background-paper-final-Feb-2015.pdf
A lot of my information comes from a paper:
http://www.regents.ac.uk/media/1460304/SEE-Background-paper-final-Feb-2015.pdf
And I make no apology for that.
EU surpasses USA GDP. It is the largest single GDP in the world. Although the percentage of EU GDP to world GDP has fallen due to the increase in GDP in the BRIC countries, Brazil, India, Russia and China.
44% of our goods and services are exported to EU. 53% of our goods and service are from EU.
The value of non-EU trade with UK has been increasing. This is why the value of our goods exported to EU has fallen from 55% to 44%.
Trade with EU is split, 2/3 goods and 1/3 services. But goods trade is increasing at a slower rate than services.
Our EU balance of trade has been deteriorating at a faster rate than our surplus with non-EU countries has been increasing.
46% of assets held in UK belong to EU organisations and residents.
36 of the largest companies in UK, along with such notable organisation as TUC, CBI, Moody’s, Chief Constables and many more want us to remain in EU for prosperity of UK. Then there’s the countries that want or advise us to remain in EU: Switzerland, USA, China and of course the EU itself.
For the UK to continue its prosperity it must enter a trade agreement with EU. Anything else is political and commercial suicide.
But Switzerland for example, currently has 120 separate trade agreements with the EU. It took nine years to negotiate these agreements.
”The lengthy negotiations left Swiss businesses in a position of uncertainty for nearly a decade.”
“Thus, it is doubtful whether the EU would be willing to negotiate a similar pattern of agreements with the UK.”
“Switzerland is not within the EEA and does not participate in the free movement of services.”
“When Switzerland formally requested a renegotiation of its free movement treaty with the EU in July 2014, the EU refused.” http://www.regents.ac.uk/media/1460304/SEE-Background-paper-final-Feb-2015.pdf
Switzerland is a member of the EFTA (European Free Trade Agreement) of which Iceland, Norway and Lichtenstein are also members.
All four countries are implicitly including the ‘four freedoms’: Goods, services, capital and PEOPLE.
So membership of this group or any other trade agreement with EU must accept the ‘four freedoms.’
“In summary, EFTA-EEA Membership would mean that the UK would face more barriers, both tariff and regulatory, in trading with major partners, would still have to contribute substantially to EU funds, would have to accept free movement of people and would continue to have to abide by EU Single Market legislation (including that for financial services and the Working Time Directive) whilst having no effective say in its formulation.” http://www.regents.ac.uk/media/1460304/SEE-Background-paper-final-Feb-2015.pdf
Then there’s the NAFTA organisation (North American, Mexico and Canada)
“It must be quite unlikely that the members of NAFTA would welcome the UK as a new member. In each case their trade with the EU exceeds their trade with the UK alone. Leaving the EU to join a trade-bloc where the UK’s standing is far less well established would be economically dangerous. The UK is thousands of miles away from the NAFTA countries and economic models tend to show positive correlation for trade between comparable sizes of economies and distances between countries.” http://www.regents.ac.uk/media/1460304/SEE-Background-paper-final-Feb-2015.pdf
The Commonwealth possibility.
“The Commonwealth does not act collectively on behalf of its members in international trade talks, unlike the EU which uses its size to leverage better trade deals for its members. Commonwealth countries have shown no interest in it developing a major new role as a trading body and if it did, it would effectively be starting from scratch” http://www.regents.ac.uk/media/1460304/SEE-Background-paper-final-Feb-2015.pdf
Summary
“There are, in theory at least, a number of potential (preferential) trading alternatives to EU membership for the UK but there are serious doubts as to whether any of them would be on offer.”
“Furthermore, access to the Single Market has only been granted to the EFTA countries (and Switzerland) on the basis that they accept the EU’s free movement of persons rules; it is inconceivable that the EU would adopt a different approach for the UK given the number of EU citizens already working here.”
“Judged against the benchmark at the outset of this paper (unfettered access to the EU, as a member, to the Single Market and the ability to influence effectively the rules for that market), none of the suggested alternatives to EU membership for the UK reach this benchmark.”
http://www.regents.ac.uk/media/1460304/SEE-Background-paper-final-Feb-2015.pdf