UK Wind-Generated Electricity on a fairly windy night

Wind and solar are great. So is storage. But it becomes really problematic at scale.

Take Tokyo, 3 days a year is cyclone weather. 22GW required over those 3 days. The storage required is an order of magnitude away from reality. Especially when the CO2 load from electricity is 25% of emissions.
 
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Wind is fine for the few thing which can sit being charged, where there is absolutely no urgency for the charge to be completed. Unfortunately there is generally no such need. Yes I do feel we should abandon the whole idea of renewable and concentrate on what we know is viable - nuclear.
Whilst I am not going to disagree with your final sentence there, it's not going to happen any time soon, probably not in my lifetime, so we have to think pragmatically about what is realistically possible with thjings 'as they are'.

As for the rest of what you say, as I keep stressing, it's obviously impossible to rely upon wind as the sole source of supply for anything but, as I've said what it can do (as can all the 'renewables'), as part of the mix, is appreciably reduce the use of 'less green' alternatives. Anticipating what I am about to post ... in the past 12 months, wind has satisfied about 18% of the UK total demand, nearly all (approx 47 TWh) of which would probably have had to be generated from gas had their been no wind generation. I don't think that is to be sneezed at, and we will undoubtedly improve on that figure in the not-too-distant future.

Kind Regards, John
 
The problem with nuclear is waste, and realistically it cannot be a long term solution, on. 1000 years where will we be storing the nuclear waste of which naff all can be done with it, other than storing it in large metal containers and burying it.
 
How many nuclear engineers does it take to change a lightbulb?
 
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Five thousand and one.

One to change it, and the others to guard the old one for the next 200,000 years
 
... I wonder what a graph of "wind output as a % of total demand" would look like ?
That should be fairly straightforward - and, as you imply, could potentially be quite interesting. Watch this space!
I hope you've been paying attention and 'watching the space' :) Done in haste, between other tasks, but I think it's roughly right and adequate for starters - see 4 more graphs below (plus a fifth one, for good measure :) ) ...

As before, everything relates to the last 12 months up to today. The first graph is analogous to those I showed before, in that it is based on daily averages (without any smoothing), and shows the 'wind output' as a percentage of total demand for each day. There are thus about 365 data points (days) plotted on that graph.

To partially satisfy your concerns about the way in which daily data (particularly if 'smoothed') obscures short-term effects, the second graph is similar to the first, but based on hourly averages. There are thus about 8760 (365 x 24) data points on the graph (not that one would know it!). Going down to intervals shorter than one hour doesn't really add anything (apart from mess!).

Contrary to what you may have been expecting the second graph is not conceptually much different from the first, which indicates that the predominant variation is day-to-day or slower, rather than more rapidly (e.g. hour-to-hour) - which is what I really expected to see.

Over the entire year, total demand was about 258 TWh (258,000 GWh). At about 47 TWh, wind output satisfied just over 18% of that total demand - which, as I just wrote to SUNRAY, I don't think can be sneezed at, and undoubtedly will increase before long.

The third and fourth graphs are of the distribution of hourly wind output as % of total demand, and are analogous to the ones I posted yesterday for actual (absolute) daily wind output. The hourly wind output varied from 0.2% to 57.3% of total demand during the hour, with a median of 15.7%. In other words, wind provided more than 15.7% of total demand during half of the 1-hour periods during the year.

For completeness, the fifth graph below is like yesterday's first one (actual absolute wind output) but for each hour during the year, rather than each day on yesterday's graph. As with the "% of demand" graphs discussed above, the graph of hourly data is not conceptually different from the graph of daily data - again imply that the predominant variability is day-to-day or slower, rather than shorty-term changes 'within days'.

.. and so to the graphs ...

upload_2021-11-1_0-57-24.png


upload_2021-11-1_0-57-48.png


upload_2021-11-1_0-58-2.png


upload_2021-11-1_0-58-21.png


upload_2021-11-1_0-58-43.png


Kind Regards, John
 
The problem with nuclear is waste, and realistically it cannot be a long term solution, on. 1000 years where will we be storing the nuclear waste of which naff all can be done with it, other than storing it in large metal containers and burying it.
Not my field at all, but I would have imagined/suspected that (if the planet and mankind survive for long enough!) it will be a lot less than 1,000 years before electricity generation will be primarily by nuclear fusion, hence with no problems of long-lasting radioactive waste.

Kind Regards, John
 
The problem with nuclear is waste, and realistically it cannot be a long term solution, on. 1000 years where will we be storing the nuclear waste of which naff all can be done with it, other than storing it in large metal containers and burying it.
Actually, dealing with new and recent waste is a solved problem - technically, it's only some vociferous and poorly informed pressure groups that stop it happening. A lot of the problematic stuff is historical - from the days when (for whatever reasons, and that's a whole different discussion) disposal wasn't really considered.

Take something like the Magnox stations that have recently been de-commissioned. There are two ways of dealing with the radioactive waste :

Plan A: Ever had something you've heated up (say a chip pan), and now it's too hot to handle - so you leave it to one side till it's cooled down ? Plan A was (AIUI) to keep the machinery going while decay heat is removed, then remove the fuel and send it for re-processing. You're now left with a big concrete box with radioactive graphite bricks inside. Remove all the external stuff (you don't need the steam generators and turbines, and you don't need any of the other equipment any more - and you're left with a house sized concrete block. So post some guards (in case someone wants to graffiti it or something) for 100 years while it "cools down". Now you have a concrete box where you can cut a hole in the side, and it's so radioactive that ... people can just walk in and carry out the graphite blocks. In case the sarcasm bypasses anyone - it's no longer "highly radioactive", no worse than living in Edinburgh or Cornwall.

Plan B: You pander to the "we can't leave it to future generations" groups. So we have the equivalent of dealing with a chip pan that's just come off the boil - i.e. we do it in the most dangerous and expensive way possible. Yes, large volumes of active waste, so it'll cost a fortune to deal with. All those graphite blocks are "highly active" so need expensive storage and disposal.

This is the uncomfortable truth for some groups - radioactivity can be "high but short lived", or "long lived but low", or somewhere in between. You do not get highly active material that is also long lived - it's a candle burns twice as bright but half as long sort of thing.

Ah, but what about that fuel I neatly removed and forgot about earlier ? Again we have a solution, but pressure groups won't allow it - it seems that the only thing more frightening than the "N" word is the "P" word, Plutonium. We have been capable of building fast breeder reactors for decades, but haven't because of "public opinion". Conveniently, a fast breeder can take in much of what we currently call "waste" and use it as fuel - but as an intermediate step it creates Plutonium which it then consumes as fuel. As an analogy, when oil was first drilled for, the only use for it was for lamps. It was found that there was a component, which if not removed, would make lamps explode - so it was separated out and poured into pits and burned off. Now we call it petrol (or gasoline for our US friends). What we have with nuclear is the equivalent of pumping oil out of the ground, and pouring 99% (or something like that) of it into pits to burn it off - or for a more accurate analogy, labelling it as very dangerous and arguing over how to store it all safely.
AIUI, if we were to build a load of fast breeders, the "waste" we currently have in storage would supply our current lecky needs for about a century - without digging any more uranium out of the ground. Lets take a moment to let that sink in ...

We have, in storage, enough nuclear "fuel" to supply our lecky needs for a century. But we have labelled it as waste to be expensively disposed of.

Now, I'm getting a bit peckish so I'll just go and grab a radioactive banana. No, that's not a joke - bananas are naturally radioactive.
 

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