Ukraine counter offensive

[wellyfish]

And I think that is part of the reason for the sanctions, China will be taking note of them.

I think imposing sanctions on China, for whatever reason, would be the height of stupidity.

The evidence for sanctions 'working' in any way is mixed at best. They are a form of performance art.

Should the USA impose sanctions on China then unless they have stockpiles of the rare earth metals they need, they could be in big trouble pretty quickly. I have no idea whether they have stockpiles or how big they might be but, at some point, they will run out. Then what?

. 'Defense could be cut off from critical materials as trade war rhetoric with China grows' from 2019

Defence News article here.

. 'The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-linked Global Times noted earlier this month that the Chinese government didn’t have immediate plans to shut off the flow; however, a source said, “But there could be an export restriction in the future,” particularly in case of war.'

Full article here.

 

[motorbiking]

I think there are levels of displeasure that can be expressed with India and China way before sanctions are needed. India has a huge Technology services market, which could be excluded from government contracts on security grounds. The west is shifting manufacture away from China, but the flow in is still growing. Its not about location of rare materials, its the manufacturing hub of the world.

China and India will follow the $.

 

[Pat ex]

Should the USA impose sanctions on China then unless they have stockpiles of the rare earth metals they need, they could be in big trouble pretty quickly. I have no idea whether they have stockpiles or how big they might be but, at some point, they will run out. Then what?

Are you referring to anything in particular because microchips are manufactured in Taiwan.

 

[ajohn]

Hobbyist drones can't really hurt tanks

I saw an interesting video clip. The USA sent some high lift drones saying good for getting medical kit to the front line. The clip appeared to show a drone dropping a small mortar on a tank. I'd assume it was one of these drones.

The most effective drone Russiia has used extensively is the cheapo used to sight artillery. There has also been use of strike drones. Not shown much.Some shown may be pure propaganda rather than reality but both sides are capable of doing that sort of thing and have.

The west - it will give Ukraine as much verbal help as it can as well as supplying weapons. The fact is that the useless Russians have captured a significant area of Ukraine and had their failures. Larger cities are easily explained. They don't want to flatten them and probably can't. They hit strategic points instead and have. I suppose some will say they have flattened one city. Fact is clips show that they haven't flattened all of it. They have flattened areas that had troops in it. Both sides have been popping all sorts around in it It's that sort of war. Progress wont be fast. It's obvious why Russia wanted that particular city. How much remains standing isn't clear.

So now there is a situation change. Both sides rather quiet recently. What's next. Afraid we have to wait and see. Zelensky said he wants an army of 1,000,000 men recently. We hear about Russian troop losses but zero about Ukraine's however one commander mentioned that his seasoned fighters had been decimated. Unusual as reporters in Ukraine are not allowed to report on some aspects of the war. He may have been telling fibs.

Nukes worry me. Russia has enough for all of us and a brand new delivery system. The earlier stuff is probably around to as they seem to store rather than throw away. The new one is relatively recent. Their statement about using them is pretty simple - if the presence of their state is threatened. I assume seriously but there are other ways a big bang can be used.Chemical. Like all they did destroy their arsenal. Close quarter use has it's problems.

 

[wellyfish]

I think there are levels of displeasure that can be expressed with India and China way before sanctions are needed. India has a huge Technology services market, which could be excluded from government contracts on security grounds. The west is shifting manufacture away from China, but the flow in is still growing. Its not about location of rare materials, its the manufacturing hub of the world.

China and India will follow the $.

Expressing levels of displeasure is just more performance art, isn't it, it's to look as though something is being done when in reality it isn't.

As far as India (and pretty much any other country not in the grip of the IMF) and it's exports of technology services etc. are concerned, the reason any country exports at all is to accumulate financial assets in the denomination of the importing country. I mean, why should a country send it's goods and services away and only receive the importers digital tokens in return?

Manufacturing: yeah, whatever the West has to do (and if it ever does) will be generational if not multi-generational. There's an argument to be made that China is using Africa as it's own 'China', isn't there?

$: Sure, many still see the dollar as a 'safe haven' and many things are priced in dollars. However, the announcement that China and Russia will deal in roubles rather than dollars for energy and are developing an alternative to Swift points to the world changing, no?

The point about rare earth materials was in relation to armament re-supply, this is what I was getting at:

“There are certain elements that are used in the production of specific military equipment…You need to make sure that you have either stockpiles or access to those,” said David Norquist, acting deputy secretary of defense, speaking at the Center for a New American Security on Thursday. “That’s an area where, as you look across the systems and you look at your future production, the question is, do I have those? Do I have enough of them, do I have access to them, where are they produced?

 

[ajohn]

$: Sure, many still see the dollar as a 'safe haven' and many things are priced in dollars. However, the announcement that China and Russia will deal in roubles rather than dollars for energy and are developing an alternative to Swift points to the world changing, no?

it seems China has restored Russia's personal banking - cards, atms etc. Scant details given.

 

[motorbiking]

"Both sides rather quiet recently?"

Russia announcing elections to formalise the annexation of Ukrainian land.
Putin calling reservists
Putin threatening the west with weapons
etc.

Of course a disorganised Russia will succeed in invading its neighbour. It's the biggest nuclear power on the planet, one of the largest armies etc. etc. and all the action is happening on its neighbour's turf. Win or lose, Ukraine gets trashed. I also suspect Ukraine has been warned by the west not to attack Russia on its own turf, giving Putin the argument of self defence.

I think expressing levels of displeasure, aligns with the how we do business with "unfriendly" nations. India doesn't want to be seen as unfriendly to the west and the west will only tolerate fence sitting up to a point.

 

[wobs]

They hit strategic points instead and have.

You mean like a supermarket, with a high tech missile?
Most of their approach has been bombarding empty fields and advancing a short disctance. Incredibly inefficient, which is why they ran out of resources, and lost so much ground.
Perhaps they think tactics are minty sweets?

 

[wellyfish]

I think expressing levels of displeasure, aligns with the how we do business with "unfriendly" nations. India doesn't want to be seen as unfriendly to the west and the west will only tolerate fence sitting up to a point.

That is a Western-centric view based on the US hegemony. It seems like the world is changing and the US Empire is teetering.

Developments like I outlined above and, significantly, the expansion of BRICS with Iran and Argentina applying to join plus Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt 'preparing to apply' may well mean the member countries have no interest in being 'friendly' to the West at all?

The crucial point, for me anyway, is how the "Empire at all costs' brigade respond to all this.

 

[ajohn]

Putin is or maybe even has called up 300,000 reservists. UK media says he is in a corner. Truss has promised £3b or some such number arms support for Ukraine next year. Maybe even more. USA and others ??? Another style of corner. Putin knows he is in a proxy war. It is. His population will know too. He is also making far more threatening noises this time.

I have wondered what Russia is at. Listening to a UN meeting helped. They appear to be after a diplomatic solution.

Things can't backfire for the west or for Ukraine can they.

 

[JohnD]

The crucial point, for me anyway, is how the "Empire at all costs' brigade respond to all this.

You mean Putin's Russian Empire

 

[ajohn]

"Both sides rather quiet recently?"

The main thing is the fighting which does seem to have stepped up again. If you can stand the boredom you might find this interesting.

Quickly add he has posted some interesting Ukrainian politics factors at times.

 

[JohnD]

The main thing is the fighting which does seem to have stepped up again. If you can stand the boredom you might find this interesting.

Quickly add he has posted some interesting Ukrainian politics factors at times.

Who is the author of your film? Do you vouch for its accuracy?

 

[IT Minion]

Ukraine is still grinding forward in Kherson. Loads of artillery and tank warfare going on.

They've just deliberately improved their operational security posture and there's fewer videos being uploaded.

Their operations in the North have slowed down a bit but even there they're still pushing on. They need to prepare before they can try any new breakthroughs but it isn't quiet, just not future textbook and Hollywood movie material action.

 

[ajohn]

You mean Putin's Russian Empire

Mostly talk for his population as all poly's do. Restoring it isn't feasible for pretty obvious reasons. He'd need to chance his arm against the UN.
The question then would be does the UN idea actually work.