Wales becomes Trumpton

[IT Minion]

What you are looking for, is a significant reduction that is an outlier from the trend and then a check of "other" roads to ensure that there isn't a corresponding increase - suggesting avoidance rather than improvement. Then you are looking for the same exposure to risk. i.e. not a change in vehicle use etc.

No, that's not correct. That's one possible factor but it isn't the only one. For example the roads with a limit over 40 stat you posted is probably irrelevant as the number of 30mph roads now dropped to 20 where there was a 50+ alternative that no one used is probably small.

Its also equally possible that roads were just more dangerous (hence the greater 40mph+ accidents) but the 20mph zones were even better.

But you can't cut this data too much, there aren't enough deaths to exclude noise if you start drilling into tinier and tinier subsets.

 

[IT Minion]

The real problem here is that this stuff is hard, it is hard to tease out complicating factors. It is hard to understand and exclude irrelevancies and overcomplicating it.

There must be academic studies or studies funded by the RAC that have done the hard work for us to a higher standard?

 

[motorbiking]

Unfortunately the authorities come up with an idea and then seek to prove it's worked or working. Most of the studies are funded, by those with a vested interest. In this case the idea is being rolled back, because it has become politically unpopular and that is really all that any politician cares about.

 

[IT Minion]

Unfortunately the authorities come up with an idea and then seek to prove it's worked or working. Most of the studies are funded, by those with a vested interest. In this case the idea is being rolled back, because it has become politically unpopular and that is really all that any politician cares about.

Just saying there's vested interests isn't a great critique. You can normally pull apart highly partisan papers and academic papers should be good enough if any exist.

It isn't being meaningfully rolled back is it? I thought it was only a few %, but don't pay that much attention to Wales.

 

[noseall]

As long as the increased traffic on our roads show they are not showing an increase in fatalities or casualties in 20MPH limits - they are here to stay where they are warranted. They actually show a reduction.

They are here to stay. Suck it up speeders.

 

[motorbiking]

Just saying there's vested interests isn't a great critique. You can normally pull apart highly partisan papers and academic papers should be good enough if any exist.

It isn't being meaningfully rolled back is it? I thought it was only a few %, but don't pay that much attention to Wales.

Revised guidelines have been published and lots of roads already set to be restored.

Senedd election 2026 sees 20mph as hot topic of discussion

In a valleys cafe, many believe 20mph works outside schools and hospitals but question its use elsewhere.

www.bbc.co.uk

Wales 20mph: Overhaul to start in September

Process to revert some roads from 20mph to 30 to begin in the autumn, minister says.

www.bbc.co.uk

50% of people are against it. But you can't spend 10s of millions on a scheme and then admit it was bonkers. It would be political suicide.

Full list of 20mph roads in Wales that are now 30mph again

There are plenty of roads that have reverted back to 30mph, while decisions on others are still being made

www.walesonline.co.uk

Seems like a lot of roads being restored and counting, with many councils spending half a million or more on signage.

crazy.

 

[IT Minion]

Revised guidelines have been published and lots of roads already set to be restored.

Senedd election 2026 sees 20mph as hot topic of discussion

In a valleys cafe, many believe 20mph works outside schools and hospitals but question its use elsewhere.

www.bbc.co.uk

Wales 20mph: Overhaul to start in September

Process to revert some roads from 20mph to 30 to begin in the autumn, minister says.

www.bbc.co.uk

50% of people are against it. But you can't spend 10s of millions on a scheme and then admit it was bonkers. It would be political suicide.

Full list of 20mph roads in Wales that are now 30mph again

There are plenty of roads that have reverted back to 30mph, while decisions on others are still being made

www.walesonline.co.uk

Seems like a lot of roads being restored and counting, with many councils spending half a million or more on signage.

crazy.

A lot of roads changing back is an easy thing to get when you've changed 35% of the roads in Wales to 20mph to start. Even a tiny fraction being changed back would get to a large number.

And the BBC article says the cost to convert them back would be met by central government.

 

[motorbiking]

You'll have to wait a few yeas for the updated percentages. They don't seem to want to publish it while the list of reverts keeps growing.

 

[IT Minion]

This stuff is pretty convincing, although TFW agree you need three full years of data to have statistical confidence.

https://research.senedd.wales/research-articles/what-impact-has-20mph-had-on-road-safety-in-wales/

 

[IT Minion]

roads with limits over 40mph saw a 4.2% increase

Did you know there was a change in reporting methodology by one police area that caused this increase?

Dyfed Powys is responsible for the entire spike.

 

[noseall]

the list of reverts keeps growing.

So do the 20MPH zones.
They are here to stay boyo.
Suck it up speeders.

 

[noseall]

It isn't being meaningfully rolled back is it? I thought it was only a few %, but don't pay that much attention to Wales.

There would always be roll-backs where blanket 20MPH was introduced.
Vulnerable 20MPH zones are growing and are here to stay.