Trade with EU

[Himaginn]

I'm off to watch Italy trounce Scotland, now.

Rather disappointed now are we ??

I was ambivalent about which side won, in that match. Scotland are already out of the running for a Grand Slam, or even a table Championship. They've already lost the Calcutta cup.
I did enjoy the game though.

Ahh one thing we can both agree on. Cracking match.

Shall we leave it there, while we're agreeing?

 

[jockscott]

Not at all Himmy.

 

[PBC_1966]

You think that following a Brexit the UK would sign up to the Schengen agreement? I very much doubt that at all (yes that's an opinion too)

That would be sort of like being up to one's waist in the natives' cooking pot, somehow managing to escape completely, then voluntarily returning to sit on the edge and dangle one's legs in the pot again!

 

[PBC_1966]

Why would the Schengen Agreement apply to a country which is not in the EU, (or EFTA)? That's nonsensical.

Yes, but weren't you the one claiming that if the U.K. were to leave the EU it would be forced to sign up to the EFTA in order to continue trading with EU countries?

And if UK were considering re-joining the EU (or EFTA) after some time of being outside, you can bet your bottom dollar, that a) it would be a condition that would be insisted on by EU, and b) it would be a condition that UK would have to accept otherwise why would they be re-joining. Because of economic ruin, obviously.

Or because having escaped from the EU some more clowns who get into Westminster decide that as a matter of principle the U.K. should be in the EU and apply to re-join.

If the U.K. gets out, then I hope sincerely that it never even contemplates rejoining, as that would be a recipe for the end of the U.K. as we've all known it (although it's already well down that road).

You keep repeating the same mistaken ideas.
Export to UK would continue. The only impediment being any import tariffs applied by UK, which would be counter-productive. (we've dealt with this repeatedly, consistently and in some depth)
Whereas exports to EU would be at the whim of EU. EU legislation would have to be complied with, no ifs, buts, or maybes! We've dealt with this repeatedly, consistently and in depth!

And if EU countries wanted to continue to export to the U.K., then they would have to comply with the applicable U.K. legislation, in the same way that at the moment they have to comply with applicable American legislation to export to the U.S., appropriate Canadian legislation to export to Canada, and so on.

Do you not think there is a certain "checks and balances" system there, in that if the EU is so desperately wanting to continue exports to the U.K. it might not be a good idea to impose anything too drastic on U.K. imports for fear of the U.K. government retaliating with, for example, extremely high import duties?

 

[Himaginn]

Why would the Schengen Agreement apply to a country which is not in the EU, (or EFTA)? That's nonsensical.

Yes, but weren't you the one claiming that if the U.K. were to leave the EU it would be forced to sign up to the EFTA in order to continue trading with EU countries?

Sorry but your memory is mistaken. I said that joining EFTA was one option (and the only sensible option IMO) in the event of Brexit.
There are other options, such as you suggested i.e. trying to go solo in the global market place, try to agree some other type of agreement with EU (which I think will not be probable, but not impossible, due to EU fearing contagion.), etc.
So there was never any suggestion of UK being forced into any situation, other then simple market pressure.
So your assertion is completely false.

And if UK were considering re-joining the EU (or EFTA) after some time of being outside, you can bet your bottom dollar, that a) it would be a condition that would be insisted on by EU, and b) it would be a condition that UK would have to accept otherwise why would they be re-joining. Because of economic ruin, obviously.

Or because having escaped from the EU some more clowns who get into Westminster decide that as a matter of principle the U.K. should be in the EU and apply to re-join.

If the U.K. gets out, then I hope sincerely that it never even contemplates rejoining, as that would be a recipe for the end of the U.K. as we've all known it (although it's already well down that road).

Unless UK economy slides to an unacceptable level and we are faced with a Greece style desperate gamble. In such a scenario our bargaining position would be so weak, we'd probably end up accepting any and every condition EU placed, e.g, Schengen, Euro, etc.

The alternatives to EU membership are unsatisfactory: they either give Britain less control over regulation than it currently enjoys, or they offer more control but less market access.

In brief: UK-EU economic relations - Parliament.pdf

You keep repeating the same mistaken ideas.
Export to UK would continue. The only impediment being any import tariffs applied by UK, which would be counter-productive. (we've dealt with this repeatedly, consistently and in some depth)
Whereas exports to EU would be at the whim of EU. EU legislation would have to be complied with, no ifs, buts, or maybes! We've dealt with this repeatedly, consistently and in depth!

And if EU countries wanted to continue to export to the U.K., then they would have to comply with the applicable U.K. legislation, in the same way that at the moment they have to comply with applicable American legislation to export to the U.S., appropriate Canadian legislation to export to Canada, and so on.

Do you not think there is a certain "checks and balances" system there, in that if the EU is so desperately wanting to continue exports to the U.K. it might not be a good idea to impose anything too drastic on U.K. imports for fear of the U.K. government retaliating with, for example, extremely high import duties?

You don't seem to be aware of the inequality in level of checks and balances that you refer to:

Since its formation in 1993, the European Union1 (EU) has become larger than any individual economy in the world, with its GDP...
..the EU remained both a major investor in the UK and a major recipient of UK investment; in 2013, 43.2% of UK overseas assets were held in the EU, whereas 46.4% of assets held in the UK by overseas residents and businesses were attributable to the EU.

The EU, taken as a whole, is the UK’s major trading partner, accounting for 45% of exports and 53% of imports of goods and services in 2014 (Considering imports and exports that's a total of 88% of our trade is with EU)
Both the Conservative – Lib Dem Coalition government and the previous Labour government stated that over three million jobs are linked, directly or indirectly, to exports to the EU.
The EU is a major source of inward investment into the UK. In 2014, EU countries accounted for £496 billion of the stock of inward Foreign Direct Investment, 48% of the total. A 2015 survey by EY found that the UK attracted more FDI projects than any other European country in 2014.
The EU as a bloc is by far the UK’s largest trading partner.
Business is clear that any Single Market needs commonly agreed rules, to allow full access to the market on equal terms. Removing non-tariff and regulatory barriers between member states is one of the most important features of the European Single Market, and the UK’s ability to influence and improve these rules increases the ability of British firms to compete. Competitive and respected EU rules can also open up new markets to UK firms without having to duplicate standards as other regions often design their own rules around EU benchmarks. Despite frustrations, over half of CBI member companies (52%) say that they have directly benefitted from the introduction of common standards, with only 15% suggesting this had had a negative impact.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives....union-to-uk-trade-and-investment-/sty-eu.html

So how important would exporting to the UK be to the EU economy after Brexit? EU exports to the UK would represent about 3 percent of EU GDP; not negligible by any means, but equally perhaps not as dramatic as one might think. The EU, and even more so the UK, would certainly have a strong incentive to negotiate a sensible trading arrangement post-Brexit. But no-one should imagine the UK holds all the cards.

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu#.VtLLXJyLTIU

In summary, UK exports 45% of our goods and services to EU, whereas EU exports about 3% of its goods and services to UK.
USA is EU's major trading partner at about 15%, then China at about 8%.

You do the maths, and suggest who would be in the stronger bargaining position, or whether it would be a level playing field.

 

[Himaginn]

Ukip leader Nigel Farage believes Britain could follow the lead of Norway, which has access to the single market but is not bound by EU laws on areas such as agriculture, justice and home affairs. ..... The Economist says Britain would still be subject to the politics and economics of Europe, but would no longer have a seat at the table to try to influence matters.
A study by Open Europe, which wants to see the EU radically reformed, found that the worst-case "Brexit" scenario is that the UK economy loses 2.2 per cent of its total GDP by 2030. However, it says that GDP could rise by 1.6 per cent if the UK could negotiate a free trade deal with Europe .....

I think we have the proposed model for a trade agreement in the event of leaving the EU.
IDS, on TV yesterday proposed the same type of trade agreement with EU.

But this is all dependent on a) an amicable divorce, which is not guaranteed, and b) a willingness by EU to consider a further type of agreement (other than the EFTA model) which would possibly cause contagion, so EU will not consider that lightly, or c) UK accepts Schengen Agreement as part of the Trade Agreement, which would completely dismantle our borders with EU.

 

[JohnD]

The knotty problem of what the UK will do if it leaves the EU is so difficult, that the anti-Europeans have to make vague assurances that everything will be all right, and try to avoid saying anything verifiable.

Very much like Alex Salmond trying to tell the Scots that they would be able to share Sterling if they became independent.

 

[PBC_1966]

The knotty problem of what the UK will do if it leaves the EU is so difficult, that the anti-Europeans have to make vague assurances that everything will be all right, and try to avoid saying anything verifiable.

Why would it not be all right? Other countries outside of the EU seem to manage well enough. So did the U.K. prior to joining the EEC.

The EU supporters seem to have so little in the way of positive reasons for remaining in the EU, that they have to resort to portraying a "doom and gloom" forecast regarding loss of trade, loss of jobs, and an economic crisis in the event of a withdrawal, none of which is verifiable.

 

[JohnD]

6) Our businesses depend on it

According to 71% of all members of the Confederation of British Influence (CBI), and 67 per cent of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the EU has had an overall positive impact on their business.

The CBI estimates that the net benefit of EU membership is worth 4-5% of GDP to the UK, or £62bn-£78bn per year.

In 2014, the ONS reported that the EU, which is the world’s biggest economy, accounted for 44.6 per cent of all UK exports of goods and services, and 53.2 per cent of the UK’s imports of goods and services.

Meanwhile, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) shows the overall contribution to our economy from exports to the EU was £187 billion last year, and that it could rise by almost half again to £277 billion a year by 2030.

It also claims access to European energy, transport and digital service markets, combined with new global trade deals, could add £58 billion to the UK economy every year by 2030, the equivalent to £1,000 per British citizen.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...one-for-us-david-cameron-brexit-a6850626.html

 

[PBC_1966]

Now could you present us with a similar bar chart for imports and exports after withdrawal from the EU?

 

[JohnD]

yes, please do, PBC, based on your optimistic belief "Why would it not be all right?"

How many questions can you get right in the Quiz. Question 1, perhaps? Question 2? Question 4?
http://video.ft.com/4764197296001/Quiz-What-has-the-EU-done-for-Britain-/world

And you have convinced yourself that we were able to "manage well enough" prior to joining the EEC.

Those rose-tinted spectacles of yours are leading you wildly astray.

 

[PBC_1966]

All very selective things in those questions and answers. Comparing annual incomes alone, without taking into account other factors, does little to indicate how well-off a person is in relative terms. And Britain's economy has improved since 1973? Who's to say that's due to membership of the EEC/EC/EU and not something else? Or that without joining it wouldn't have improved even more, so that it's a case of having grown in the last 40 years despite being in the EEC/EC/EU?

 

[jockscott]

John boy forgets that the EU is all about "control" (something they've lost in recent months,, They've lost control of their external borders. The border controls are going up in many EU countries, wholly due to Merkel's open invite)

 

[jockscott]

The knotty problem of what the UK will do if it leaves the EU is so difficult, that the anti-Europeans have to make vague assurances that everything will be all right, and try to avoid saying anything verifiable.

Much like the Pro EU lot bandying round words like "Doom and Gloom" The only substantiation they have is from Pro EU groups/ businesses (in other words,, "Nothing verifiable".. No one truly knows what will happen following a Brexit,, so it's all conjecture/ scaremongering.. If the media is to be believed, many Europeans feel the EU is doomed anyway. (but there again, it depends on which media you believe in the first place)

 

[EFLImpudence]

That just about sums it up.

As well as that it's the British public voting.

May just as well toss a coin.