Covid Death Stats: Looking Like Us Doubters May Be Right

[Harry Bloomfield]

If you think that is what 'flattening the curve' means then why did they not just call it 'reducing the number of cases'?

It's not actually to do with deaths, is it? It was to limit the number in hospital at at any one time.

Doesn't one work in hand with the other? If the pressure is reduced on the NHS, the bath not overflow, there is more ability to deal with covid patients and help them survive the covid. In India the bath is overflowing and there has mass deaths on the streets - many of them would have been avoidable with hospital care. That is what our 'flattening the curve' did in the UK, but you knew that already - you just wanted an online argument, to troll didn't you.

 

[denso13]

"The lower but longer curve going off to the right shows what happens if we manage the pandemic well and spread out the impact of the disease over a longer period of time. We may get as many cases overall — although fewer, ideally — but by spreading out the impact, we can remain within the health-care system’s capacity and avoid a crisis."

That was probably a fair summary at the time it was written. But the vaccine development happened much quicker than first thought and pushed the curve to a much safer place.

 

[EFLImpudence]

That was probably a fair summary at the time it was written.

That's what (when) we are talking about.

But the vaccine development happened much quicker than first thought and pushed the curve to a much safer place.

The curve in question ended last Summer.



The goal-posts are over there.

 

[denso13]

The goal-posts are over there.

Until I go over there only to find they have moved.

 

[EFLImpudence]

Yep.

 

[SirGalahad]

India official death toll is about £200k but on all estimates is about two to five times this.

 

[Notch7]

It's not actually to do with deaths, is it? It was to limit the number in hospital at at any one time

Isn't it rather obvious those two are linked?

What happens to people who go to hospital and don't recover

 

[Notch7]

The vaccine was irrelevant before it was introduced - i.e. the time of the first lockdown

No, that is incorrect.

Virologists were saying back in early 2020 that vaccines were the only way out. The strategy of lockdowns was to impose sufficient controls to minimise infection spread, altering interventions as needed to suit community infection rates and R value. Repeat as needed until vaccine ends the cycle.

 

[Notch7]

No one knows

Yes we do.

"Our results suggest that, by implementing effective NPIs, many countries can reduce R below 1 without issuing a stay-at-home order. We find a surprisingly large role for school and university closures in reducing COVID-19 transmission, a contribution to the ongoing debate about the relevance of asymptomatic carriers in disease spread. Banning gatherings and closing high-risk businesses can be highly effective in reducing transmission, but closing most businesses only has limited additional benefit"
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.28.20116129v3

You are arguing that without a control group where no interventions took place, we don't know.

But there has been plenty of data analysis around the world to provide more than reasonable confidence lockdowns work.

 

[EFLImpudence]

Isn't it rather obvious those two are linked?

What happens to people who go to hospital and don't recover

Oh, stop being a pillock. I think you've been working too hard and lost it.

Have a rest.

P.S. Jeremy Corbyn is an M.P.

 

[ajohn]

Yep.

Why post a video from an idiot ? The reasons for what the gov have said are so obvious I am not even try and explains why the guy is stupid.

At least it explains why Boris has stated that distancing may be dropped in those time scales. Taking notice of numpties and as he has said might people will expect will.
The bloke is essentially a fart that will say anything to maybe gain a few extra votes. It also distracts people from sleaze which we all know goes on. So he picks a headline for the media to use.

 

[EFLImpudence]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Secretary_of_State

 

[denso13]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Secretary_of_State

So you aren't just talking about the first lockdown, are we allowed to digress from that?

 

[Mottie]

Only one Covid death today. Looks like the vaccination programme is working.

 

[denso13]

Looks like the vaccination programme is working.

Coupled with the lockdown measures it is demonstrably true.