I know - incredibly 'non-electrical', but I thought that it would be better that I responded in a new thread, rather than in a thread about Scottish fire alarms! In that other thread ....
In any event, whether it is 39 or 52/53 deaths per 3 hours is really pretty irrelevant, since my point is equally true with either of those figures.
I really do not understand what 'we' are doing/thinking. For most of the last four months or so we have been running at around 1,000 ("28 day") Covid deaths per week (with no sign of any fall), and that has almost doubled in the past 2-3 weeks. Hence, throughout that period I have been expressing a degree of incredulity that 'we' are tolerating/accepting that with very little discussion, particularly given that (increasingly) very little is being done which is likely to reduce those figures any time soon - and the analogy I've been constantly using is that we are talking about the equivalent of around four (more recently probably 5-6) crashes of Jumbo Jets full of UK residents every week.
Co-incidentally, a couple of days ago there was a Panorama programme televised, the whole theme of which is that it is "scandalous" (their word) that there are currently about 1,600 deaths on the UK roads every year - pointing out (more than once) that this was equivalent to at least three Jumbo Jets crashing every year. If three Jumbos crashing every year is "scandalous", then what on earth does one call the situation in which at least that number are happening every week? !!
[ ** interestingly, the rapid rise in deaths in recent times has not been associated with one iota of rise in ICU occupancy (on the contrary, a small reduction) - suggesting that these increased deaths have not been occurring in ICUs. This may perhaps suggest that they have mainly been very elderly and/or 'frail' people (maybe in care homes) in whom even admission to hospital, let alone ICUs, may not have been considered appropriate ]
My main concern, on the day on which virtually all of the remaining 'restrictions' have been abandoned, is that I don't really understand what it is thought/hoped is going to improve the situation any time soon. Our only remaining eggs seem to be in the vaccination basket, but with the vast majority of the over-12s now 'double-jabbed', and over 60% 'triple-jabbed' there does not seem to be all that much scope for continuation of the vaccination programme to have much more major impact.
For anyone interested, I include below, without any commentary/.comment at this stage, a few graphs (which I hope are mainly self-explanatory) to illustrate 'what is going on' with the figures (some are 'expanded' versions of others).
I would merely comment that what happened (a rapid fall of about 40%!) to the number of 'reported cases' following 'Freedom Day' last July is very hard to understand, other than as an illustration of how relatively useless are the reported figures for 'new cases' (actually 'positive tests', in those who decide to have tests) - imperfect though they also are, the figures for hospital/ICU admissions/occupancy, and deaths, are a better guide to what has been happening.
Kind Regards, John
Fair enough, and to put that into some context, you say that on a day on which (somewhat to my amazement, albeit I am well past being surprised by anything 'we' do!) 'we' appear to have abandoned nearly all of the few remaining 'restrictions' in the face of there currently being roughly 53 Covid deaths every 3½ HOURS!
As you correctly quoted, I was talking about "currently" - and in that context I meant yesterday (19th Jan), when 359 "28-day" Covid deaths were reported - which works out as that works out at 52.35 deaths every 3½ hours.In the last seven days there were 1,865 deaths attributed to covid which is 39 every 3½ hours.
In any event, whether it is 39 or 52/53 deaths per 3 hours is really pretty irrelevant, since my point is equally true with either of those figures.
I really do not understand what 'we' are doing/thinking. For most of the last four months or so we have been running at around 1,000 ("28 day") Covid deaths per week (with no sign of any fall), and that has almost doubled in the past 2-3 weeks. Hence, throughout that period I have been expressing a degree of incredulity that 'we' are tolerating/accepting that with very little discussion, particularly given that (increasingly) very little is being done which is likely to reduce those figures any time soon - and the analogy I've been constantly using is that we are talking about the equivalent of around four (more recently probably 5-6) crashes of Jumbo Jets full of UK residents every week.
Co-incidentally, a couple of days ago there was a Panorama programme televised, the whole theme of which is that it is "scandalous" (their word) that there are currently about 1,600 deaths on the UK roads every year - pointing out (more than once) that this was equivalent to at least three Jumbo Jets crashing every year. If three Jumbos crashing every year is "scandalous", then what on earth does one call the situation in which at least that number are happening every week? !!
Indeed, something like that. So, yesterday's figure, if continued, would mean that Covid deaths were around 21% of deaths due to all other causes. Even using your figure for the average over the past week, it is still around 16% Does your comment imply that you regard that as 'acceptable'?Normally/naturally there are 250 deaths every 3½ hours.
I don't think so. The most recent data I have immediately to hand is the ONS data for the last week of 2021, and the average age of death then was approximately 72.8 years with, as you can see from this chart, a substantial number of deaths in the 45-64y age group. I believe that the age of deaths may have reduced a bit since then. My contacts in ICUs are certainly telling me that, anecdotally, the (relatively 'few' **) Covid patients they are seeing appear to be 'becoming increasingly young'Is the average age still 82 years?
[ ** interestingly, the rapid rise in deaths in recent times has not been associated with one iota of rise in ICU occupancy (on the contrary, a small reduction) - suggesting that these increased deaths have not been occurring in ICUs. This may perhaps suggest that they have mainly been very elderly and/or 'frail' people (maybe in care homes) in whom even admission to hospital, let alone ICUs, may not have been considered appropriate ]
My main concern, on the day on which virtually all of the remaining 'restrictions' have been abandoned, is that I don't really understand what it is thought/hoped is going to improve the situation any time soon. Our only remaining eggs seem to be in the vaccination basket, but with the vast majority of the over-12s now 'double-jabbed', and over 60% 'triple-jabbed' there does not seem to be all that much scope for continuation of the vaccination programme to have much more major impact.
For anyone interested, I include below, without any commentary/.comment at this stage, a few graphs (which I hope are mainly self-explanatory) to illustrate 'what is going on' with the figures (some are 'expanded' versions of others).
I would merely comment that what happened (a rapid fall of about 40%!) to the number of 'reported cases' following 'Freedom Day' last July is very hard to understand, other than as an illustration of how relatively useless are the reported figures for 'new cases' (actually 'positive tests', in those who decide to have tests) - imperfect though they also are, the figures for hospital/ICU admissions/occupancy, and deaths, are a better guide to what has been happening.
Kind Regards, John