UK Covid Deaths etc. *Links required please, for any claims

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I know - incredibly 'non-electrical', but I thought that it would be better that I responded in a new thread, rather than in a thread about Scottish fire alarms! In that other thread ....

Fair enough, and to put that into some context, you say that on a day on which (somewhat to my amazement, albeit I am well past being surprised by anything 'we' do!) 'we' appear to have abandoned nearly all of the few remaining 'restrictions' in the face of there currently being roughly 53 Covid deaths every 3½ HOURS!
In the last seven days there were 1,865 deaths attributed to covid which is 39 every 3½ hours.
As you correctly quoted, I was talking about "currently" - and in that context I meant yesterday (19th Jan), when 359 "28-day" Covid deaths were reported - which works out as that works out at 52.35 deaths every 3½ hours.

In any event, whether it is 39 or 52/53 deaths per 3 hours is really pretty irrelevant, since my point is equally true with either of those figures.

I really do not understand what 'we' are doing/thinking. For most of the last four months or so we have been running at around 1,000 ("28 day") Covid deaths per week (with no sign of any fall), and that has almost doubled in the past 2-3 weeks. Hence, throughout that period I have been expressing a degree of incredulity that 'we' are tolerating/accepting that with very little discussion, particularly given that (increasingly) very little is being done which is likely to reduce those figures any time soon - and the analogy I've been constantly using is that we are talking about the equivalent of around four (more recently probably 5-6) crashes of Jumbo Jets full of UK residents every week.

Co-incidentally, a couple of days ago there was a Panorama programme televised, the whole theme of which is that it is "scandalous" (their word) that there are currently about 1,600 deaths on the UK roads every year - pointing out (more than once) that this was equivalent to at least three Jumbo Jets crashing every year. If three Jumbos crashing every year is "scandalous", then what on earth does one call the situation in which at least that number are happening every week? !!
Normally/naturally there are 250 deaths every 3½ hours.
Indeed, something like that. So, yesterday's figure, if continued, would mean that Covid deaths were around 21% of deaths due to all other causes. Even using your figure for the average over the past week, it is still around 16% Does your comment imply that you regard that as 'acceptable'?

Is the average age still 82 years?
I don't think so. The most recent data I have immediately to hand is the ONS data for the last week of 2021, and the average age of death then was approximately 72.8 years with, as you can see from this chart, a substantial number of deaths in the 45-64y age group. I believe that the age of deaths may have reduced a bit since then. My contacts in ICUs are certainly telling me that, anecdotally, the (relatively 'few' **) Covid patients they are seeing appear to be 'becoming increasingly young'

[ ** interestingly, the rapid rise in deaths in recent times has not been associated with one iota of rise in ICU occupancy (on the contrary, a small reduction) - suggesting that these increased deaths have not been occurring in ICUs. This may perhaps suggest that they have mainly been very elderly and/or 'frail' people (maybe in care homes) in whom even admission to hospital, let alone ICUs, may not have been considered appropriate ]

upload_2022-1-20_15-33-33.png


My main concern, on the day on which virtually all of the remaining 'restrictions' have been abandoned, is that I don't really understand what it is thought/hoped is going to improve the situation any time soon. Our only remaining eggs seem to be in the vaccination basket, but with the vast majority of the over-12s now 'double-jabbed', and over 60% 'triple-jabbed' there does not seem to be all that much scope for continuation of the vaccination programme to have much more major impact.

For anyone interested, I include below, without any commentary/.comment at this stage, a few graphs (which I hope are mainly self-explanatory) to illustrate 'what is going on' with the figures (some are 'expanded' versions of others).

I would merely comment that what happened (a rapid fall of about 40%!) to the number of 'reported cases' following 'Freedom Day' last July is very hard to understand, other than as an illustration of how relatively useless are the reported figures for 'new cases' (actually 'positive tests', in those who decide to have tests) - imperfect though they also are, the figures for hospital/ICU admissions/occupancy, and deaths, are a better guide to what has been happening.

upload_2022-1-20_15-51-42.png



upload_2022-1-20_15-52-56.png



upload_2022-1-20_15-57-9.png



upload_2022-1-20_16-6-17.png


Kind Regards, John
 
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I do not wish to get into a discussion (argument) on the covid situation. It has been done to death elsewhere and no one changes their mind from what they believe.

I just thought that your figure of 53 deaths every 3½ hours was of a particularly bad day and the weekly figure was more representative.
On Sunday there were 91 deaths - 'only' 13 every 3½ hours.

I do not see what comparing the figures to the last four months before Omicron will achieve other than showing you think the situation is still bad and getting worse.

We could - at a stroke - ensure that not one single person in the future would be killed in a plane crash but that is not how people live their lives in the modern world.


That the Government has removed all restrictions now leads me to think that eventually they have realised that the measures imposed can no longer be tolerated, have not reduced the associated figures overall or possibly worsened them. Compare them to Wales and Scotland.
 
Weekend figures are always lower as deaths not reported in many cases until Monday.

But, what we do know, is that deaths is increasing right now, even if government policy suggests otherwise.

Government policy is obviously attempt herd immunity again - new rules include:
  • No need for kids to wear masks in classes from today
  • Next week, no legal reason to wear masks for anybody
  • Tests no longer free
  • Told to work in offices again
  • No more covid passes for entertainment, eating out etc
  • Testing of entries / visitors to UK no longer needed
  • No more isolation if you test positive from March 24
So basically - no ppe to stop it spreading, no tests to check for asymptomatic spreaders, encouragement to mingle with everybody, and if you catch it, just be careful, but you can still go shopping, go to school, visit a hospital if you want.

Maybe the strongest person survive!

covid.png
 
I just thought that your figure of 53 deaths every 3½ hours was of a particularly bad day and the weekly figure was more representative.
Fair enough. I'm perfectly happy to change my statement from "roughly 53 deaths every 3½ hours" to "roughly 53 deaths every 4¾ hours". In comparison with Panorama's ("scandalous") "roughly 53 (road) deaths every 12 days", I don't think that the difference between 3½ and 4¾ hours materially alters my point!
On Sunday there were 91 deaths - 'only' 13 every 3½ hours.
The figures reported on Sundays and Mondays (and the day following a bank holiday) are, for administrative reasons, always ridiculously low, and are compensated for by very high figures on Tuesdays.

I'm not sure that yesterday's figure was necessarily a "particularly bad (by which you mean 'atypical') day". A figure of 359 is very high for a Wednesday and today's figure, at 330, is not a lot lower.
We could - at a stroke - ensure that not one single person in the future would be killed in a plane crash but that is not how people live their lives in the modern world.
Sure, but that's because major plane crashes are so rare (and consequent deaths so few). There surely is no doubt that if there were 3-6 crashes, killing 1,00-2,000 UK citizens, every week, that something pretty 'Draconian' would happen, and many/most people would probably re-think "how they live their lives in the modern world".

Everything conceivable is done to maximise the safety of air travel, and I'm sure that no-one would consider 'relaxing'/abolishing the rules/regulations/laws that seek to achieve that, even with the risk as low as it is, let alone if it were very much greater.
That the Government has removed all restrictions now leads me to think that eventually they have realised that the measures imposed can no longer be tolerated, have not reduced the associated figures overall or possibly worsened them.
The actual timing of the latest 'relaxations' is undoubtedly substantially due to politics/Boris (his desperate attempts to gain the personal support of the substantial number of 'anti-restriction' members of the Parliamentary Tory Party) but, yes, the thinking may well be as you suggest. However, the corollary is that 'we' have thereby decided that the current level of deaths can be "tolerated"/accepted, at least for the foreseeable future. That's certainly a view, and may even be 'the best view', but I remain surprised that there seems to have been remarkably little discussion about it.
I do not see what comparing the figures to the last four months before Omicron will achieve other than showing you think the situation is still bad and getting worse.
I thought I had explained that such is the opposite of what I've been doing. Omicron is just an additional complication. For some three or four months before omicron showed its face in the UK, I was commenting on the ongoing ~1,000 deaths ("~3 Jumbo crashes") per week and the absence of any particular measures to do anything much about that ongoing situation.

Kind Regards, John
 
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... Government policy is obviously attempt herd immunity again - new rules include: ....... So basically - no ppe to stop it spreading, no tests to check for asymptomatic spreaders, encouragement to mingle with everybody, and if you catch it, just be careful, but you can still go shopping, go to school, visit a hospital if you want.
I think that you may be giving the government too much credit for having a "thought-through" policy at all!

As for 'herd immunity', I think there are uncertainties about the extent to which infection with omicron gives immunity. We certainly know that two doses of current vaccines do not give all that much protraction against omicron, hence the recent panic to get 'booster' doses into as many g as possible.

To bring this discussion fractionally back 'on-topic' for this forum, if we have decided that the current level of Covid morbidity and mortality is 'acceptable', at least for the foreseeable future, then we might as well completely abolish all regulation/regulations relating to electrical work (and probably also gas work and building in general), and get rid of RCDs (let lone SPDs and AFDDs!), since the amount of reduction in morbidity and mortality which that regulation achieves undoubtedly fades into total insignificance in comparison with what we seem to be 'accepting' as a result of Covid!

Kind Regards, John
 
To bring this discussion fractionally back 'on-topic' for this forum, if we have decided that the current level of Covid morbidity and mortality is 'acceptable', at least for the foreseeable future,
I think 'unavoidable' might be a better word.

then we might as well completely abolish all regulation/regulations relating to electrical work (and probably also gas work and building in general), and get rid of RCDs (let lone SPDs and AFDDs!), since the amount of reduction in morbidity and mortality which that regulation achieves undoubtedly fades into total insignificance in comparison with what we seem to be 'accepting' as a result of Covid!
It could be said that the regulations for RCDs have been (and probably SPDs and AFDDs will be) a waste of time and money as there are no fewer deaths now than without them.

Perhaps a closer comparison with the covid restrictions than might at first be thought.
 
..., <various things> ...
I don't participate (or wish to participate) in this forum to which this thread has been moved. If anyone wants to say anything to me about this topic, please communicate with me by PM.

Kind Regards, John



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All, please can we try harder to keep the rubbish out of this thread.
Supply links where possible.
 
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Not at all, but if you are another one who believes doctors lie then I can see how you are confused.
Lots of nhs "heroes" are now coming out with the truth, when faced with the sack.
Plenty of videos online (not mainstream of course) showing that the full hospitals and corpses piled up were staged lies.
I have a couple of them but too large to post.
Search for them, you'll be surprised, or maybe not.

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Links to videos required. Not all sources are reliable
 
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Lots of nhs "heroes" are now coming out with the truth, when faced with the sack.

Well that's convenient.

Another one who believes that doctors lie but somehow become heroes when it suits their agenda. Hypocrite.
 
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I don't participate (or wish to participate) in this forum to which this thread has been moved. If anyone wants to say anything to me about this topic, please communicate with me by PM.

Kind Regards, John
Hi John, you won’t get intelligent debate about Covid in GD, it’s infested with conspiracist nutters. // Let's try!

I would just add one point to your posts:

people who are admitted to hospital with a non Covid health issue who are subsequently tested and found to be Covid positive, are included in the total hospital Covid admissions and that percentage is high, around 40%

That also feeds through into deaths
 
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