One thing I don't get about the tariffs on China are the predictions for the price rises. I was reading a case study for a typical importer of Chinese manufactured goods. He said the cost of the product to him was $5 inc. shipping. But then the costs of marketing, sale and transport were $15. And he sold it for $25, to give himself a profit of $5. So, if there is an extra 100% import tariff, that only increases the overall price by $5. It doesn't double it as many in the media have claimed.
Everyone works on multiples, though. Like putting 2p in a litre of milk for our farmers adds a lot more to the shop price.
That was very good, he does seem to have a remarkable insight.
Standouts for me were that whilst he was extremely critical of Trump, he couldn't rule out a change of direction or u turn on Trumps part.
The extent of Russias reliance on N.Korea, Iran and China.
The impossibility of re-taking the captured territories, he was of the opinion it could only be achieved politically in 20-30 years time (2 or 3 leaders after Putin)
The likelihood of the war carrying on for several more years.
Interesting points on even if Europe/America supplied longer range missiles, Ukraines inability to use them inside Russia, more sophisticated air defences would be bettter.
Glad you liked it. It's a Sky News series by the look of it. There should be another one soon.
Makes a change to listen to someone with knowledge and experience and insight, who isn't selling a party line.
I expect we can agree that Trump had a point about European Arms, and in various cases across the world, unfortunate trade statistics from the US point of view. And immigration, and other things.
If you listen to Howard Lunatik, it all makes sense. But a major thing wrong is the speed. It makes T look stupid. Nobody can build a high tech manufacturing facility , for semiconductors or drugs, quickly. Then there's the staffing problem. Businesses hate unpredictability, so if he'd phased in his tariffs at 5 or 10 percent a year, manufacturers could respond.
Mfrs in the US are scared of where prices are going to go. Nobody has any idea where tariffs will settle. They put firms' input costs up, and nobody knows if the US market will pay even higher prices. They're moaning already. Some can't of course.
So you have prices going up, and stagnation - nobody doing anything new.
If the outlook for US is a depression, or stagflation, firms will not move to USA to build factories. Some like NVIDIA and Microsoft and Apple can afford it, but those are truly exceptional. cases.
T wants to reduce interest rates. He can't see beyond the end of his tie. The first effect is to raise prices, because the dollar becomes weaker. People pull their money out of US companies, which are valued in dollars.
Good analysis here:
https://wallstreettimes.com/upsides-and-downsides-of-the-interest-rate-cut/
Then you have to put rates up again to control inflation, and so on. If Trump "takes over" the FED by removing Powell, credibility in the US as a stable economic environment will drop even more than it already has.
His antics have also sclerotized the bond market. Nobody knows where it's going, so there's no lliquidity, which is vital for iinvestment in infrastructure and plant. You wouldn't take a loan right now.
There are also what Rumsfeld would have called unkown unknowns, as well as the known unknowns.
T wants to kick out masses of immigrants so he's going to lose workers. Not that he has the staff to do it, or to count the immigrants.
No solution to that, but that's at the known known level, Where's his contingency for the others?
Someone here said gold was the thing to invest in. Only so-so to date, it's becoming a solitary option. . You can't invest in US valued stocks, or bonds, and the more people buy gold, the more it'll go up. Trouble is, you can't eat it. You want growth, but gold pulls money out of the market.
Sigh.