Are Diesel Sales Doomed ?

[topgazza]

Whilst I accept the emissions argument as being fairly realistic. Which for me is the first time and as a long time owner of Passat Estate diesels... pre testing software I notice that diesel prices of second hand cars are dropping a lot. To be fair this is based on looking for a 2-3 year old petrol Mini and seeing that the equiv diesel versions are getting cheaper and in a couple of cases by quite a bit. On the face of it bargains given the high spec. Also the ratio of Mini petrol vs diesels at my local dealer has changed a lot to having plenty of diesels and less petrol models for sale. The sales manager has admitted that they are proving harder to shift since the VW case but more so since the Mayor of London's campaign and the recent hysteria from the Transport Minister "buy a diesel at your peril"...what the hell did he mean by that ? Threat of swinging taxation after many years of the Gov encouraging diesel ?

Anyway, purely because I don't do the miles anymore, I have a petrol VW Golf GT DSG (1.4TSi 150bhp...very quick and smooth as smooth can be) the wife won't be doing more than 8k a year in the Mini so its hard to justify buying a diesel. The prices are getting tempting though but its not good for a diesel to do short jouneys most of the time. But I just wonder what the future holds...as I do fancy a nearly new Passat Estate... diesel... as the next car

 

[JohnD]

I suppose it will be come to seen as no worse than driving around town scattering asbestos dust behind you.

You will no longer be able to use the old "I didn't know" excuse.

A significant number of diesel drivers remove the particulate filters at present.

It's not news.
Here is a document from 2013
http://www.hse.gov.uk/construction/healthrisks/cancer-and-construction/diesel-engine-exhaust.htm
And one from 2012
http://www.nhs.uk/news/2012/06june/Pages/who-classes-diesel-vehicle-exhaust-fumes-as-carcinogen.aspx

Government departments have been wangling air pollution statistics to avoid being caught by the EU breaking commitments.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d...rural-road-in-air-pollution-blunder-p2jx8pxvx

Once rUK resigns from the EU I suppose there will be no-one to prevent the government allowing its citizens to be poisoned.

It's no surprise that London and other cities are the first to act
http://www.itv.com/news/london/2014-02-24/fff/

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ir-pollution-limit-for-2017-in-just-five-days

You call this hysteria?

 

[topgazza]

Not many cars in that picture.....and there's the rub in London. White Van man and buses are the biggest polluters plus the massive increase in construction lorries and vehicles. Taxis as well are a huge problem but they are gradually resolving that issue I hope. Add Uber in tatty unregulated vehicles and the increase is marked.

I'd accept a move to get older vehicles off the road but modern diesels are fine and will only get better. As usual the Gov and certain parts of the green lobby are putting the cart before the horse. Punish people with a blatant tax raising ploy rather than a sensible planned reduction.

But the question remains..... are diesel cars a doomed vehicle.

 

[Burnerman]

Although we diesel drivers are considered to be the new pariah, we also need to consider ships and aircraft......they burn much the same stuff, yet we are encouraged to use them as much as possible
Modern ship engines are switching to LPG which unfortunately is a non conversion for a diesel engine - the compression ratio would need to be much lower and spark ignition introduced so that's a non starter.
I guess the hybrid will be the way to go, at the end of the day if our trade in prices go right down that will be the decider.
John (Yeti with Adblue.....wiping my finger in the tail pipe shows no soot accumulating there - at all.)

 

[JohnD]

Luckily, very few cargo ships sit in the Euston Underpass for hours on end, day after day, throwing carcinogenic fumes into a densely populated area.

 

[Burnerman]

Sure, but when you consider the funds that Wartsila are pumping into their engine designs they must consider there's a need.
Ferry companies are also fitting scrubbers to their funnels big time.
John

 

[Doggit]

It's regrettably, automatic knee jerk reaction time. Petrol cars put out as much carciogenic material as deisels do, and as many people have respiratory problems from petrol fumes, but politicians only react to what's first put in front of them. The current Euro6 diesel engines are very efficient, and put out very little smog making particulates, and 15 container tankers put out as many emissions as the whole UK car industry. Local councils want to reduce the speed limit outside schools (and other places) to 20mph, but that means 3rd gear for most cars, so puts out more pollutants, and traffic lights are designed to hodm cars up, and deter people from driving, so does any of the experts have a comprehensive idea of what's really going on.

Brown persuaded everyone to change to diesels to cut down on CO2, but he didn't legislate to make all cars have stop start transmissions, he didn't legislate to stop vehicles just sitting with their engines running at the side of the road. The current laws on mobile phones don't warn people that they'll get done if the pull over and asnwer their phones whilst the engine is still on.

In effect, they still don't know what they are doing, and I doubt if they ever will, so yes, diesels owners are in danger because of that inneptitude.

 

[JohnD]

It's regrettably, automatic knee jerk reaction time. Petrol cars put out as much carciogenic material as deisels do, and as many people have respiratory problems from petrol fumes,

really? Where did you see that?

 

[Doggit]

I read an article; why do you incessantly question where things come from John; this is supossed to be a discussion, not an inquisition. You shouldn't breathe in the petrol fumes when you're filling your car because they're carciongenic, and I've known that even longer.

You can do your own research

 

[JohnD]

links to articles

unsupported allegations

Yeah, right, Mr Trump

 

[topgazza]

So, anyway..... back to the question.

Looking at the prices dropping in a number of cars for diesel it's either the right time now to buy one or wait a bit longer. It's like the stock market, its all in the timing and luck. But I can say that if anyone is after a diesel Mini there are a lot available.

Only cloud on the horizon is whatever measures are taken by knee jerk's like Sadiq Khan. If diesels are so bad and I agree the old ones are, then ban them as the increase in charge will not deter those that need their vehicles for their job. But it seems the balance between income, tax raising and peoples lives has been the made and the latter coming second. Fair enough if a bit hypocritical but it would make more sense to randomly check vehicles for working DPFs in places like London rather than just raise taxes. So buying a diesel could be an enormous gamble no matter how clean it is. Electric are nowhere near mainstream yet in price and technology so whats the alternative....... in the real world ? And are diesel cars a dead breed ?

 

[Burnerman]

Hybrids will be the way to go in the interim, I think....the Toyota Prius is a top favourite amongst taxi drivers just now. I'll still be buying diesels for a few years, I think.
John

 

[topgazza]

You call this hysteria?[/QUOTE]

John, I respect your passion about this but I was referring to the Transport Ministers unqualified comment "buy a diesel at your peril" in reference to the damage it appears to have done to diesel car sales. As generating an "hysteria" in the public rather than have a rational debate and actual be professional and state what he meant by that comment and what evidence it was based on. It undermines any enviromental argument to me. Again, comments like his affect sales and jobs when there is no need.

 

[Burnerman]

Slightly off topic but I wonder what will happen when biomass fuel turns out not to be as 'green' as we are led to believe.....shipping wood chip from Canada to Rotterdam, and then by small ship up the Humber to Goole for example
Fearsome quantities are burnt just to provide a few mW - on the coal plants they can have 96 mW turbines, in banks of 4!
John

 

[DaveHerns]

Is this anti - diesel hysteria just us or France and Germany etc as well ? I've just bought one of the very last Volvo V70s and couldn't have had a petrol version even if I wanted one.