Covid Death Stats: Looking Like Us Doubters May Be Right

[Brigade77]

Somethings that have always puzzled me & if any of the epidemiologists here can clarify please do.

How come not everyone gets flu in a flu season? And how come you can still get flu despite being vaccinated?

 

[Dangee]

Errrrr. Two words.
Transmissibility
Efficacy

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Errrrr. Two words.
Transmissibility
Efficacy

And the body's natural immune system. Some have more effective immune systems than others, which can also be affected by diet, vitamins, etc.

 

[denso13]

Yet none of them caught flu.

They didn't catch a lot of other things either. Covid isn't the flu though unless you disbelieve the overwhelming scientific evidence.

I cannot disprove that; nether you can prove it.

No lockdown and cases rise, with lockdowns cases fall. I think that is pretty clear evidence.

Those who think that the measures taken have had considerable reducing effect on covid must also think that the UK would have been, for some inexplicable reason, far far worse than anywhere else in the world without them

I'm not sure what is inexplicable about it. If the UK didn't take any measures while the rest of the world did then surely the UK would be far far worse off than anywhere else. Isn't that just common sense?

 

[EFLImpudence]

They didn't catch a lot of other things either. Covid isn't the flu though unless you disbelieve the overwhelming scientific evidence.

Have a lot of other things disappeared as well?

No lockdown and cases rise, with lockdowns cases fall. I think that is pretty clear evidence.

Or - cases rise, cases fall.

I'm not sure what is inexplicable about it.

Look at the numbers.

If the UK didn't take any measures while the rest of the world did then surely the UK would be far far worse off than anywhere else.

But the UK did take measures; other places did not. UK just as bad if not worse.

Isn't that just common sense?

It would seem to be - but what you argue did not happen.

 

[ajohn]

Vaccinations do not provide immunity. They prepare the immune system for when people catch what ever it is they are aimed at.

Take covid no vaccination. Some one catches it. Nothing happens for a week. They may then be ill for a week or so. The immune system catches up and starts to do something about it. The whole process can take 2 to 3 weeks.

Some one has a vaccine and doesn't catch it. Typically their immune system wipes out the vaccine in 2 to 3 weeks. They then catch covid - immune system is ready for it so starts working much sooner. That in turns means a shorter period when they can infect others - usually but not always. It also means that covid may not make some one so seriously ill. Main problem is covid will still be around for a long time and boosters are likely to be needed.

Some of the posts - brick short of a load. Lots of bricks short. They seem to think the lockdown had no effect on the spread of covid. They neglect to consider that a lot of people even in their 30's need oxygen at least and would die without it and completely forget just how many people haven't caught it. The vast majority haven't.

There will be more waves but how large they will be in terms of the number of people involves is to be determined. They hope to get death counts down to the same level as seasonal flu which varies rather a lot. Depends on which flu it is. One is way worse than others but hasn't arrived for a long time now. It may one day. Covid is not seasonal other than colder weather may cause it to spread more easily.

 

[Notch7]

Have a lot of other things disappeared as well?


Or - cases rise, cases fall.


Look at the numbers.


But the UK did take measures; other places did not. UK just as bad if not worse.


It would seem to be - but what you argue did not happen.

I'm sorry but you are conveniently simplifying it to an extent that makes it meaningless to build a dishonest argument.

Once you build in nuance and detail you will see non pharmaceutical interventions do work.

And the evidence is clear:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81442-x

 

[ajohn]

But the UK did take measures; other places did not. UK just as bad if not worse.

Ok which ones didn't take measures to curb it's spread? UK deaths per capita are worse than many others but that is irrelevant in respect to the measures taken other than at times action here has been rather late. For instance the first step in this wave didn't work - 2 of them actually.

 

[ajohn]

China is still having "fun". They have outbreaks and clamp down on movement etc. Big place so in some respects easier to do. The Chinese in these areas are moaning - they have a few cases and then lock us down. They are vaccinating at a hell of a rate but rather a lot of people to do.

If some one wants to know what the UK would be like if the NHS can't cope take a look at India on the TV. Actually there is evidence that death counts in hospitals have been significantly higher during peaks - something like 20% in the first wave. 2nd - pass but as higher might be worse.

 

[Dangee]

Chile were using the Chinese vaccine,.........

 

[ellal]

Interestingly...

"The risk of catching coronavirus in a pub or restaurant is 'relatively low', the Government's scientific advisers have admitted.
Analysis by SAGE found the chance of contracting the virus in hospitality settings appeared slightly higher than in gyms or shops, but concluded the risk was still small.
The admission came in a review of studies and data from the UK and around the world into the threat of the virus in the hospitality, leisure and retail sectors."

 

[EFLImpudence]

And the evidence is clear:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81442-x

Ah, sorry, I made a mistake working it out.

 

[denso13]

Have a lot of other things disappeared as well?

So you think the flu has disappeared?

But the UK did take measures; other places did not. UK just as bad if not worse.

I'd certainly be more skeptical if every country in the world had the same rates of infection and deaths. That would be unbelievable.

Actually, you are dancing round the houses with all of your questions. What do believe is the truth? If it isn't what we are being told why are we being lied to?

 

[denso13]

Interestingly...

Yep, this was a recent study, we are learning all the time.

 

[EFLImpudence]

So you think the flu has disappeared?

Well, there have been no cases. Which word would you choose?

I'd certainly be more skeptical if every country in the world had the same rates of infection and deaths. That would be unbelievable.

But the point is the UK is one of the worst and you think the measures taken have worked.
More unbelievable are Japan, Viet-Nam and other S.E.Asian countries.

Actually, you are dancing round the houses with all of your questions.

Maybe the answers are not good enough.

What do believe is the truth? If it isn't what we are being told why are we being lied to?

I think the so-called lockdowns have not worked - stay home unless you go out.
Supermarkets are not hotbeds of infection.

There are too many inconsistencies and contradictions.
I know they are learning all the time but that then does mean that previously they were wrong.
E.g. two metre rule, droplets fall to ground; then leave windows open so the virus blows away - also windy outside, you know.

The numbers are not accurate and have been exaggerated for effect to frighten the people - SAGE instructions.