Does anybody think a 2nd spike is likely

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

And finally:
If we don't know to what extent any immunity is conferred by having the virus, we don't know if any herd immunity is possible.
Thus, if little or no immunity is conferred on individuals, because they've had the virus, any herd immunity is an unachievable state, except by a successful vaccination, if one becomes available.

 

[IT Minion]

And finally:
If we don't know to what extent any immunity is conferred by having the virus, we don't know if any herd immunity is possible.
Thus, if little or no immunity is conferred on individuals, because they've had the virus, any herd immunity is an unachievable state, except by a successful vaccination, if one becomes available.

If you're not immune to the virus after being infected then you're probably not going to get a working vaccine.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

why are post responses to ajohn so confrontational? -ajohn is being polite you are being blunt and rude, I dont see the need.

You are correct, Notch7. I don't mean to be rude or confrontational. I have tried to be polite, but my comments either went straight overhead, or were misinterpreted.
I will try to restrain myself in future.

You have to admit, he does come out with some exceptional comments. Granted, we (or at least I) can deduce what he is trying to say, but taken at face value, it's hilarious, such as this one:

Perhaps you need further explanation. The best option is not having to be treated in hospital.

Well, the best option is to take precautions against the virus, in the first place.
But then ajohn's comment could refer to all conditions. Hmmm, stay away from hospitals, irrespective of the state of your health.

Once there there are a whole series of possible results. Last one is death.

Hmm, death is pretty final.
Or discharge from hospital.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

If you're not immune to the virus after being infected then you're probably not going to get a working vaccine.

And herd immunity is simply not achievable, by any means.

 

[bernardgreen]

And herd immunity is simply not achievable, by any means

Depends on the herd, in days gone by a herd of milk maids were often immune to smallpox having been immunised by them having handled cattle infected with cow pox.

Some variants of "common" flu may create immunity ( or increased resistance ) to the present Covid virus.

 

[Deleted2797112]

why are post responses to ajohn so confrontational? -ajohn is being polite you are being blunt and rude, I dont see the need.

Coming from you. that's funny Notchy.

 

[ajohn]

Herd immunity (also called herd effect, community immunity, population immunity, or social immunity) is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through vaccination or previous infections, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune.

I added the underline. It's an important aspect. We have a small but useful one - maybe. The maybe comes comes from poor reports of re infection. One I found mentioned 400 odd cases. Without more information it's pointless considering it. As just a misc. web page probably garbage anyway. The outcome is needed and there could be other explanations. This is what Pillar 4 testing is about. It's been running for some time. The email my wife received suggests they now want to monitor older people or maybe just want to add more. Maybe try and relate to DNA as they have that on all people taking part in the biobank study.

A certain gent had bad press for mentioning herd immunity. Not fair really because if people recover without help there will be some. One of the unfortunate things about this virus is that people may not have any symptoms at all. Some may recover at home. Information we have seen is based on people who needed to go to hospital. Hancock asked people who have symptoms to get themselves tested along with a pretty please yesterday. They need people to do that now, any signs of symptoms. The media should be pushing it. Instead they are holding their sort of biased enquiries. Not in all cases though such as interviewing people who have had it. Useful information if some one wants to know what the results of being infected may be. They can't communicate with the dead. There is also a lot of info available under the freedom of information act. To be honest I wonder why they just didn't make it available as it was produced.

If some one wants to know how the immune system works there are several decent technical primer web pages about. No need to worry about the fancy words just the stages. Unfortunately this particular virus may leave no memory effect.

Some news is stupid. One announcement mentioned monkeys being vaccinated and that it produced antibodies. To what I ask myself. What is going on with human trials would be more interesting but much too early. They do seem to have a plan for a serious human trial - older people as long term effects aren't so important and they are the group that are likely to have the most grief. I'm fascinated with that. As far as I am aware I have never caught anything I have been vaccinated against. I'm curious to know how quickly my immune system would kick in.

Notch7's point. Well one bright spark decided something that is applied to things that are sold is sold. Perhaps he thinks exports are given away. If he wants to read it the way he did fine by me. The science man - point me at some proof at what ever he thinks is correct. The rest well trolling is pretty common on the web and many realise what it is without being told. People in need of a life really.

 

[Deleted2797112]

The science man - point me at some proof at what ever he thinks is correct. The rest well trolling is pretty common on the web and many realise what it is without being told. People in need of a life really.

If you're referring to me (in a not-so-subtle trolling way) then no. I won't point you at evidenced sources. The reason? Because, it appears that anything you read, watch or listen to is regurgitated here into a huge steaming pile of alphabetti spaghetti. It would be a pointless exercise.

 

[IT Minion]

Depends on the herd, in days gone by a herd of milk maids were often immune to smallpox having been immunised by them having handled cattle infected with cow pox.

Some variants of "common" flu may create immunity ( or increased resistance ) to the present Covid virus.

That's true, but nothing to do with herd immunity. Some diseases are close enough that an antibody for one protects against its cousin. (Cow pox and small pox)

It'd only count as herd immunity if a large % of people had been exposed to cow pox so that it's very unlikely for someone who has smallpox encounters a susceptible person.

It's also pretty irrelevant as there's nothing suggested that's plausible that could give the equivalent effect for Covid-19.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

My problem, ajohn, is that I find your posts contain little nuggets of hilarity. For a few examples:

We have a small but useful one - maybe.

A small but useful what?

The maybe comes comes from poor reports of re infection.

What 'maybe'? What does it apply to?

The outcome is needed and there could be other explanations.

Yes, we all need an outcome.

they now want to monitor older people or maybe just want to add more.

They want to add more older people? They've been busy killing them off in the care homes. (OK, That's not warranted! )

A certain gent had bad press for mentioning herd immunity. Not fair really because if people recover without help there will be some.

Does not follow. Just because you recover doesn't mean you have immunity. Herd immunity does not apply to individuals.

Some may recover at home.

Most do recover at home.

Instead they are holding their sort of biased enquiries. Not in all cases though such as interviewing people who have had it.

You think they should ask people who have not had it?

They can't communicate with the dead.

True! What do you think they would find, if they could?

There is also a lot of info available under the freedom of information act.

There's an awful lot of information available under that Act. Not a lot of it relevant to Covid19 though.

To be honest I wonder why they just didn't make it available as it was produced.

Make what available? When what was produced?

If some one wants to know how the immune system works ... Unfortunately this particular virus may leave no memory effect.

Then they won't be immune.

Some news is stupid.

True! Could you elaborate?

They do seem to have a plan for a serious human trial - older people as long term effects aren't so important

That's true, the older people will probably die before the long term effects affect them.

As far as I am aware I have never caught anything I have been vaccinated against.

Nor me. If I had, I'd want my money back.

Well one bright spark decided something that is applied to things that are sold is sold. Perhaps he thinks exports are given away.

I'm not a sparky. Tariffs are not applied to exports. (except in extraordinary circumstances.)

The rest well trolling is pretty common on the web and many realise what it is without being told. People in need of a life really.

You're right. And I apologise.

 

[ajohn]

I haven't tolled back at all to anyone. I made a statement and asked for information. I don't troll. Just about anything I mention comes from official sources. I also use the word seems at times for various reasons. I wouldn't repeat anything at all unless it stands a decent chance of being true.

 

[IT Minion]

Nor me. If I had, I'd want my money back.

Actually a lot of vaccines don't make everyone immune, some of them just reduce the severity of the disease for some people.

Also a lot of vaccines only last for a certain time as your body forgets about the vaccine. The time between booster shots is constantly being recalculated to ensure they're as effective as possible, without getting them done every week.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Good points.

 

[Vinty]

And finally:
If we don't know to what extent any immunity is conferred by having the virus, we don't know if any herd immunity is possible.
Thus, if little or no immunity is conferred on individuals, because they've had the virus, any herd immunity is an unachievable state, except by a successful vaccination, if one becomes available.

Over 3 million people have been infected with CV19, is there any data on the number of people who have been reinfected with the virus after they have recovered.

 

[Brigadier]

Over 3 million people have been infected with CV19, is there any data on the number of people who have been reinfected with the virus after they have recovered.

Over three million have been categorically tested positive. We have no idea how many have actually been infected, but we're not tested.