Why......

[Deleted member 18243]

Because Covid is a lot of fuss about nothing, I don't normally pay attention to the statistics. However, in all the arguments above about death figures from year to year, nobody has stated what the country's population was for each year. Without knowing this there can be no comparison. 600,000 deaths would have been a much larger part of the population in 1918 than 600,000 deaths is this year.

 

[durhamplumber]

Because Covid is a lot of fuss about nothing,

FUKoFF idiot

 

[Deleted member 18243]

FUKoFF idiot

A compelling point persuasively argued!

 

[durhamplumber]

A compelling point persuasively argued!

No point trying to have sensible debates with such thick arsé dopy idiots with as little brain as you.

 

[Brigadier]

No point trying to have sensible debates with such thick arsé dopy idiots with as little brain as you.

I'm surprised you even quoted the correct person.

 

[durhamplumber]

I'm surprised you even quoted the correct person.

Stick to the biking brig,,,leave the humour to me.

 

[EFLImpudence]

Not sure why the numbers argument is so important. Surely no-one here (who can do electrics, gas, boilers etc) is stupid enough to argue that this year's extra deaths are, 'a blip';or normal and nothing to do with Covid.

No, but how many 'extra' have there been? The point is - what are they 'extra' than?

The average is just that, so the 'extra' number might be equal to the highest of the last five years or even worse than the lowest.

What does either prove?

 

[charliegolf]

However, in all the arguments above about death figures from year to year, nobody has stated what the country's population was for each year. Without knowing this there can be no comparison.

Comparison for you...

ONS projects about a pop increase of about a 300k (average from a prediction of 3m over 10 years) per year. Covid rules almost certainly depressed that in 19/20, but on 300k extra, you'd expect 400 more deaths. That leaves 65,600 excess deaths to explain away.

 

[EFLImpudence]

Excess to what? The average of the last five years.

View attachment 216085

The average for the last five years is 598,703.

However, as I have pointed out before, the annual deaths have been rising since 2010 (I believe there was a small dip in 2019) therefore that average will be lower than the actual expected number for 2020 by possibly 30,000.

 

[durhamplumber]

Obviously sincere but hallucinating

 

[IT Minion]

Comparison for you...

ONS projects about a pop increase of about a 300k (average from a prediction of 3m over 10 years) per year. Covid rules almost certainly depressed that in 19/20, but on 300k extra, you'd expect 400 more deaths. That leaves 65,600 excess deaths to explain away.

It's a bit more complicated than that, given the life expectancy of 81 years it should be the population % increase in 1939.

A quick Google and some calculations implies it was in the region of 0.5% or 200,000.

 

[charliegolf]

Be sure and let the ONS know, won't you?

 

[IT Minion]

Be sure and let the ONS know, won't you?

They don't keep records that far back. Nor is their job to work out that sort of expected mortality rate. If it were I'd be delighted to see their charts because they're better at this stuff than any of us.

If you're wondering why your logic is wrong, imagine there were a baby boom and 66 million children were born this year. The number of deaths next year wouldn't be much higher because those children will mostly live 80 years or so. You'd see a significant ramping up around 2090. Current growth rate is irrelevant, it's the past that matters.

 

[SpecialK]

Sorry, should have added not to trust figures in the table ... not the graph.
Possibly 579514 deaths to w/c 11/12/20 (week 50) ?

(Ignore this as its only England...)

Those figures are the same as in the graph above.

Is there a number for 2020 so far?

 

[charliegolf]

If you're wondering why your logic is wrong, .

No, I really wasn't.